Combined deep learning classifiers for stock market prediction: integrating stock price and news sentiments

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilpa B L ◽  
Shambhavi B R

PurposeStock market forecasters are focusing to create a positive approach for predicting the stock price. The fundamental principle of an effective stock market prediction is not only to produce the maximum outcomes but also to reduce the unreliable stock price estimate. In the stock market, sentiment analysis enables people for making educated decisions regarding the investment in a business. Moreover, the stock analysis identifies the business of an organization or a company. In fact, the prediction of stock prices is more complex due to high volatile nature that varies a large range of investor sentiment, economic and political factors, changes in leadership and other factors. This prediction often becomes ineffective, while considering only the historical data or textural information. Attempts are made to make the prediction more precise with the news sentiment along with the stock price information.Design/methodology/approachThis paper introduces a prediction framework via sentiment analysis. Thereby, the stock data and news sentiment data are also considered. From the stock data, technical indicator-based features like moving average convergence divergence (MACD), relative strength index (RSI) and moving average (MA) are extracted. At the same time, the news data are processed to determine the sentiments by certain processes like (1) pre-processing, where keyword extraction and sentiment categorization process takes place; (2) keyword extraction, where WordNet and sentiment categorization process is done; (3) feature extraction, where Proposed holoentropy based features is extracted. (4) Classification, deep neural network is used that returns the sentiment output. To make the system more accurate on predicting the sentiment, the training of NN is carried out by self-improved whale optimization algorithm (SIWOA). Finally, optimized deep belief network (DBN) is used to predict the stock that considers the features of stock data and sentiment results from news data. Here, the weights of DBN are tuned by the new SIWOA.FindingsThe performance of the adopted scheme is computed over the existing models in terms of certain measures. The stock dataset includes two companies such as Reliance Communications and Relaxo Footwear. In addition, each company consists of three datasets (a) in daily option, set start day 1-1-2019 and end day 1-12-2020, (b) in monthly option, set start Jan 2000 and end Dec 2020 and (c) in yearly option, set year 2000. Moreover, the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA model was computed over the traditional classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM; also, it was compared over the existing optimization algorithms like NN + DBN + MFO, NN + DBN + CSA, NN + DBN + WOA and NN + DBN + PSO, correspondingly. Further, the performance was calculated based on the learning percentage that ranges from 60, 70, 80 and 90 in terms of certain measures like MAE, MSE and RMSE for six datasets. On observing the graph, the MAE of the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA model was 91.67, 80, 91.11 and 93.33% superior to the existing classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM, respectively for dataset 1. The proposed NN + DBN + SIWOA method holds minimum MAE value of (∼0.21) at learning percentage 80 for dataset 1; whereas, the traditional models holds the value for NN + DBN + CSA (∼1.20), NN + DBN + MFO (∼1.21), NN + DBN + PSO (∼0.23) and NN + DBN + WOA (∼0.25), respectively. From the table, it was clear that the RMSRE of the proposed NN + DBN + SIWOA model was 3.14, 1.08, 1.38 and 15.28% better than the existing classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM, respectively, for dataset 6. In addition, he MSE of the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA method attain lower values (∼54944.41) for dataset 2 than other existing schemes like NN + DBN + CSA(∼9.43), NN + DBN + MFO (∼56728.68), NN + DBN + PSO (∼2.95) and NN + DBN + WOA (∼56767.88), respectively.Originality/valueThis paper has introduced a prediction framework via sentiment analysis. Thereby, along with the stock data and news sentiment data were also considered. From the stock data, technical indicator based features like MACD, RSI and MA are extracted. Therefore, the proposed work was said to be much appropriate for stock market prediction.

Author(s):  
Padmanayana ◽  
Varsha ◽  
Bhavya K

Stock market prediction is an important topic in ?nancial engineering especially since new techniques and approaches on this matter are gaining value constantly. In this project, we investigate the impact of sentiment expressed through Twitter tweets on stock price prediction. Twitter is the social media platform which provides a free platform for each individual to express their thoughts publicly. Specifically, we fetch the live twitter tweets of the particular company using the API. All the stop words, special characters are extracted from the dataset. The filtered data is used for sentiment analysis using Naïve bayes classifier. Thus, the tweets are classified into positive, negative and neutral tweets. To predict the stock price, the stock dataset is fetched from yahoo finance API. The stock data along with the tweets data are given as input to the machine learning model to obtain the result. XGBoost classifier is used as a model to predict the stock market price. The obtained prediction value is compared with the actual stock market value. The effectiveness of the proposed project on stock price prediction is demonstrated through experiments on several companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft using live twitter data and daily stock data. The goal of the project is to use historical stock data in conjunction with sentiment analysis of news headlines and Twitter posts, to predict the future price of a stock of interest. The headlines were obtained by scraping the website, FinViz, while tweets were taken using Tweepy. Both were analyzed using the Vader Sentiment Analyzer.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
Rosalina Rosalina ◽  
Hendra Jayanto

The aim of this paper is to get high accuracy of stock market forecasting in order to produce signals that will affect the decision making in the trading itself. Several experiments by using different methodologies have been performed to answer the stock market forecasting issues. A traditional linear model, like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) has been used, but the result is not satisfactory because it is not suitable for model financial series. Yet experts are likely observed another approach by using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural network (ANN) are found to be more effective in realizing the input-output mapping and could estimate any continuous function which given an arbitrarily desired accuracy. In details, in this paper will use maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) and graph theory to distinguish and determine between low and high frequencies, which in this case acted as fundamental and technical prediction of stock market trading. After processed dataset is formed, then we will advance to the next level of the training process to generate the final result that is the buy or sell signals given from information whether the stock price will go up or down.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dasgupta ◽  
Rashmi Singh

PurposeThe determinants of investor sentiment based on stock market proxies are found in numbers in empirical studies. However, investor sentiment antecedents developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) are not done till date. The purpose of this paper is to fill this research gap by first developing an ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining the investor-specific, stock market-specific, macroeconomic and policy-specific factors’ individual impact on the investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors develop the ISI by using the mean scores of six statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken throughout the world. Then, the authors employ the structural equation modeling approach on the responses of 576 respondents on 40 statements (representing the index and four study hypotheses) collected in 2016 across the country.FindingsThe results show that investor- and stock market-specific factors are the major antecedents of investor sentiment for these investors. However, interestingly macroeconomic fundamentals and policy-specific factors have no role to play in driving their sentiment to invest in the stock market.Practical implicationsThe major implication of the results is that the Indian retail investors are showing a mixed approach of Bayesian and behavioral finance decision making. So, these implications can guide the investment consultants, regulators, other stakeholders in markets and overwhelmingly the retail investors to introspect their investment decision making across time horizons.Originality/valueThe formulation of ISI in an emerging market context and thereafter examining possible antecedents to influence retail investors in their investment decision making are not done till date. So, the study is unique in its research issue and findings and will have significant implication for the retail investors at least in emerging market contexts.


Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 2717
Author(s):  
Nusrat Rouf ◽  
Majid Bashir Malik ◽  
Tasleem Arif ◽  
Sparsh Sharma ◽  
Saurabh Singh ◽  
...  

With the advent of technological marvels like global digitization, the prediction of the stock market has entered a technologically advanced era, revamping the old model of trading. With the ceaseless increase in market capitalization, stock trading has become a center of investment for many financial investors. Many analysts and researchers have developed tools and techniques that predict stock price movements and help investors in proper decision-making. Advanced trading models enable researchers to predict the market using non-traditional textual data from social platforms. The application of advanced machine learning approaches such as text data analytics and ensemble methods have greatly increased the prediction accuracies. Meanwhile, the analysis and prediction of stock markets continue to be one of the most challenging research areas due to dynamic, erratic, and chaotic data. This study explains the systematics of machine learning-based approaches for stock market prediction based on the deployment of a generic framework. Findings from the last decade (2011–2021) were critically analyzed, having been retrieved from online digital libraries and databases like ACM digital library and Scopus. Furthermore, an extensive comparative analysis was carried out to identify the direction of significance. The study would be helpful for emerging researchers to understand the basics and advancements of this emerging area, and thus carry-on further research in promising directions.


Author(s):  
Prof. Gowrishankar B S

Stock market is one of the most complicated and sophisticated ways to do business. Small ownerships, brokerage corporations, banking sectors, all depend on this very body to make revenue and divide risks; a very complicated model. However, this paper proposes to use machine learning algorithms to predict the future stock price for exchange by using pre-existing algorithms to help make this unpredictable format of business a little more predictable. The use of machine learning which makes predictions based on the values of current stock market indices by training on their previous values. Machine learning itself employs different models to make prediction easier and authentic. The data has to be cleansed before it can be used for predictions. This paper focuses on categorizing various methods used for predictive analytics in different domains to date, their shortcomings.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-60
Author(s):  
Alberto Antonio Agudelo Aguirre ◽  
Ricardo Alfredo Rojas Medina ◽  
Néstor Darío Duque Méndez

The implementation of tools such as Genetic Algorithms has not been exploited for asset price prediction despite their power, robustness, and potential application in the stock market. This paper aims to fill the gap existing in the literature on the use of Genetic Algorithms for predicting asset pricing of investment strategies into stock markets and investigate its advantages over its peers Buy & Hold and traditional technical analysis. The Genetic Algorithms strategy applied to the MACD was carried out in two different validation periods and sought to optimize the parameters that generate the buy-sell signals. The performance between the machine learning-based approach, technical analysis with the MACD and B&H was compared. The results suggest that it is possible to find optimal values of the technical indicator parameters that result in a higher return on investment through Genetic Algorithms, beating the traditional technical analysis and B&H by around 4%. This study offers a new insight for practitioners, traders, and finance researchers to take advantage of Genetic Algorithms for trading rules application in forecasting financial asset returns under a more efficient and robust methodology based on historical data analysis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny K.H. Kwok

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study whether switching trading venues create value in the Hong Kong stock market.Design/methodology/approachBy using an event study, the paper investigates the abnormal returns (AR) earned by firms in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) relating to switching to the Main Board (MB). Two measures, turnover of the stock and Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity ratio, are used to examine the liquidity effects.FindingsThe switch is accompanied by a long-term increase in stock price for low liquidity firms only. High liquidity firms underperform with persistent negative excess returns after switching, while the transient negative excess returns in low liquidity firms reverse gradually. The results further show a significant increase in trading activity for low liquidity firms following the switch, while there is a significant decline in both trading activity and liquidity in firms with high liquidity. The overall results suggest that moving from GEM to the MB is beneficial to low liquidity firms but detrimental to high liquidity firms.Originality/valueThis study is the first to investigate whether moving from GEM to the MB creates value in the Hong Kong stock market.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Wang ◽  
Junseok Kim

With the rapid development of the financial market, many professional traders use technical indicators to analyze the stock market. As one of these technical indicators, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is widely applied by many investors. MACD is a momentum indicator derived from the exponential moving average (EMA) or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), which reacts more significantly to recent price changes than the simple moving average (SMA). Traders find the analysis of 12- and 26-day EMA very useful and insightful for determining buy-and-sell points. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective method for predicting the stock price trend. Typically, the traditional EMA is calculated using a fixed weight; however, in this study, we use a changing weight based on the historical volatility. We denote the historical volatility index as HVIX and the new MACD as MACD-HVIX. We test the stability of MACD-HVIX and compare it with that of MACD. Furthermore, the validity of the MACD-HVIX index is tested by using the trend recognition accuracy. We compare the accuracy between a MACD histogram and a MACD-HVIX histogram and find that the accuracy of using MACD-HVIX histogram is 55.55% higher than that of the MACD histogram when we use the buy-and-sell strategy. When we use the buy-and-hold strategy for 5 and 10 days, the prediction accuracy of MACD-HVIX is 33.33% and 12% higher than that of the traditional MACD strategy, respectively. We found that the new indicator is more stable. Therefore, the improved stock price forecasting model can predict the trend of stock prices and help investors augment their return in the stock market.


2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 366-380
Author(s):  
Friday Kennedy Ozo ◽  
Thankom Gopinath Arun

PurposeVery little is known about the effect of dividend announcements on stock prices in Nigeria, despite the country’s unique institutional environment. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to provide empirical evidence on this issue by investigating the stock price reaction to cash dividends by companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.Design/methodology/approachStandard event study methodology, using the market model, is employed to determine the abnormal returns surrounding the cash dividend announcement date. Abnormal returns are also calculated employing the market-adjusted return model as a robustness check and to test the sensitivity of the results toβestimation. The authors also examine the interaction between cash dividends and earnings by estimating a regression model where announcement abnormal returns are a function of both dividend changes and earnings changes relative to stock price.FindingsThe study find support for the signaling hypothesis: dividend increases are associated with positive stock price reaction, while dividend decreases are associated with negative stock price reaction. Companies that do not change their dividends experience insignificant positive abnormal returns. The results also suggest that both dividends and earnings are informative, but dividends contain information beyond that contained in earnings.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample for the study includes only cash dividend announcements occurring without other corporate events (such as interim dividends, stock splits, stock dividends, and mergers and acquisitions) during the event study period. The small firm-year observations may limit the validity of generalizations from these conclusions.Practical implicationsThe findings are useful to researchers, practitioners and investors interested in companies listed on the Nigerian stock market for their proper strategic decision making. In particular, the results can be used to encourage transparency and good governance practices in the Nigerian stock market.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the very limited research on the stock market reaction to cash dividend announcements in Nigeria; it is the first of its kind employing a unique cash dividends data.


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