Improved Representation of the European Power Grid in Long Term Energy System Models: Case Study of JRC-EU-TIMES

Long-term transition pathways to a low-carbon energy system are analysed by applying the energy system model REMod. All in all, the paper contributes to the current research through an innovative scenario approach, using assumptions for societal trends and quantitative results for scenarios, analysing the paths towards climate neutrality and defossilization in 2050. In the case study of Germany, these trends and drivers influence the results and the technology composition in each consumption sector (buildings, transport, and industry). Across all scenarios, it can be observed that the electrification of all sectors is important for the defossilization of the energy system, as the direct use of electricity from renewable energy is more efficient than the consumption of carbon-neutral synthetic energy carriers. However, different consumer behavior (e.g., non-acceptance or resistance against specific technologies) influences not only the efficient use of (green) electricity, it also changes the optimal pathways of the transition to paths with greater efforts. One potential societal trend—sufficiency—could be an important cornerstone for reaching the targets, as the required expansion and exchange of technologies are lower and thus facilitate the transition.

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The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Environmental Research Letters ◽

10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6b ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Silvia Regina Santos da Silva ◽

Gokul C Iyer ◽

Thomas Bernard Wild ◽

Mohamad I. Hejazi ◽

Chris R. Vernon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Renewable Resource ◽

Energy System ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Solar Pv ◽

Analysis Model ◽

Change Analysis ◽

Term Energy ◽

Substantial Uncertainty

Abstract Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar PV electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g., land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

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