Confidence Intervals for Flood Return Level Estimates Assuming Long-Range Dependence

In Extremis ◽  
2010 ◽  
pp. 60-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henning W. Rust ◽  
Malaak Kallache ◽  
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber ◽  
Jürgen P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Long Range Dependence

scholarly journals Variability and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Climate Data with Short- and Long-Range Dependence

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (15) ◽  
pp. 6135-6156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Bowers ◽  
Wen-wen Tung
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature State ◽  
Correlation Structures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Error Bars ◽  
Mean State

This paper presents an adaptive procedure for estimating the variability and determining error bars as confidence intervals for climate mean states by accounting for both short- and long-range dependence. While the prevailing methods for quantifying the variability of climate means account for short-range dependence, they ignore long memory, which is demonstrated to lead to underestimated variability and hence artificially narrow confidence intervals. To capture both short- and long-range correlation structures, climate data are modeled as fractionally integrated autoregressive moving-average processes. The preferred model can be selected adaptively via an information criterion and a diagnostic visualization, and the estimated variability of the climate mean state can be computed directly from the chosen model. The procedure was demonstrated by determining error bars for four 30-yr means of surface temperatures observed at Potsdam, Germany, from 1896 to 2015. These error bars are roughly twice the width as those obtained using prevailing methods, which disregard long memory, leading to a substantive reinterpretation of differences among mean states of this particular dataset. Despite their increased width, the new error bars still suggest that a significant increase occurred in the mean temperature state of Potsdam from the 1896–1925 period to the most recent period, 1986–2015. The new wider error bars, therefore, communicate greater uncertainty in the mean state yet present even stronger evidence of a significant temperature increase. These results corroborate a need for more meticulous consideration of the correlation structures of climate data—especially of their long-memory properties—in assessing the variability and determining confidence intervals for their mean states.

scholarly journals Representations of hermite processes using local time of intersecting stationary stable regenerative sets

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 1234-1251
Author(s):  
Shuyang Bai
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Local Time ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Local Times ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
Random Interval ◽  
Stationary Increments ◽  
Self Similar ◽  
Regenerative Sets

AbstractHermite processes are a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments. They often arise in limit theorems under long-range dependence. We derive new representations of Hermite processes with multiple Wiener–Itô integrals, whose integrands involve the local time of intersecting stationary stable regenerative sets. The proof relies on an approximation of regenerative sets and local times based on a scheme of random interval covering.

scholarly journals On nonparametric regression for bivariate circular long-memory time series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Beran ◽  
Britta Steffens ◽  
Sucharita Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Nonparametric Regression ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
Confidence Bands ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
Asymptotic Results ◽  
Memory Time ◽  
Circular Time Series

AbstractWe consider nonparametric regression for bivariate circular time series with long-range dependence. Asymptotic results for circular Nadaraya–Watson estimators are derived. Due to long-range dependence, a range of asymptotically optimal bandwidths can be found where the asymptotic rate of convergence does not depend on the bandwidth. The result can be used for obtaining simple confidence bands for the regression function. The method is illustrated by an application to wind direction data.

Long range dependence in stock market returns

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 1331-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Christodoulou-Volos ◽  
Fotios M. Siokis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Long Range Dependence ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns
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