Very Simple Expert Systems: An Application of Judgment Analysis to Political Risk Analysis

1987 ◽  
pp. 217-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeryl L. Mumpower
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Expert Systems ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Judgment Analysis

Country Risk Analysis of Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahidur Rahman ◽  
Jannatul Ferdous Bristy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Multinational Companies ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Financial Factors ◽  
Political Economic

In the endeavor of conquering the worlds consumers, multinational companies face enormous risks. Such risks may arise from different political, economic, and financial factors. These factors are commonly referred to country risk as a whole. Focusing Bangladesh in this regard, objective of this study is to find out the level of country risk in terms of political, economic, and financial riskiness. Analysis of country risk has been done using an internationally recognized methodology named International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). For political risk analysis, primary data has been collected from 20 journalists, bureaucrats and policy makers, business persons, corporate professionals, and academicians with a structured closed-ended questionnaire. Results indicate that Bangladesh is in high risk position in terms of political risk, low risk position in terms of economic risk and very low risk position in terms of financial risk. Compositely, Bangladesh has been found to be a moderately risky country for investment.

Political risk analysis

1992 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 167-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Chermak
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Political Risk

Assessing the Political Environment for Business: A New Role for Political Scientists?

1982 ◽  
Vol 15 (02) ◽  
pp. 180-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph LaPalombara
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Multinational Corporations ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Future Events ◽  
To Come

Political scientists are only now, and dimly, beginning to recognize that something called “political risk analysis” (PRA) is very much in vogue in the corporate and banking communities of this country. Any attempt to assess this uncommon development should begin with this question: Why would any banker or corporate manager wish to spend hard cash on anything political scientists might have to say about places overseas where banks and multinational corporations lend or invest their capital? After all, the profession is not exactly distinguished by its ability to make accurate forecasts. Indeed, Sartori has argued that political scientists ought to eschew forecasting entirely in that they are best able to explain what happened as opposed to what may come to pass.Sartori's assertion of course would make historians of us all—and burden us with the historian's smug claim that, if the history examined is too recent, the immediacy of events will distort our vision and bias our judgments. Thus, rather than try to foretell where, say, Germany will move politically next year we should expend (more!) of our resources to establish once and for all what really caused Weimar to collapse and Hitler to come to power.This is not the stuff of political risk analysis. Growing interest in this activity is little based on broad analyses of the past or on long-term forecasts of future events. The potential consumers of political assessments are intelligent, harried bankers and corporate managers who are pressed to make relatively short-term decisions that affect the viability of enterprise and investment-and, equally important, careers-in professions where tenure is unknown.

Application of Fuzzy Expert Systems for EOR Project Risk Analysis

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting-Horng Chung ◽  
Herbert B. Carroll ◽  
Rhonda Lindsey
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Expert Systems ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Fuzzy Expert Systems ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

scholarly journals Assessing Political Risk Analysis in a hybrid regime: The case of Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itai Makone ◽  
Derica Lambrechts
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Hybrid Regimes ◽  
Weak Institutions ◽  
Hybrid Regime ◽  
State Relations ◽  
Election Violence

Political Risk Analysis (PRA) levels are theoretically postulated to increase in a hybrid regime. This paper argues that there is a change to this hypothesis. A single case research design was employed, using Zimbabwe from 1990 to 2018. During the period, Zimbabwe showed five diverse forms of hybridity which are liberal, competitive illiberal, competitive, illiberal, and military hybrid regimes. A conceptual framework is developed to assess political risk in a hybrid regime using hybrid regime indicators and some political risk factors of most concern to developing countries. 28 key informants from six categories of respondents were interviewed. Illegitimacy, corruption, the staleness of leadership, adverse government regulation, election violence, and severed home-host state relations were confirmed to increase the perception of political risk in a hybrid regime. Investors were observed to have developed a tolerance for some “unacceptable” factors that increased political risk. Military tutelage, weak institutions, flawed elections, military generals in power, undemocratic means to retain power, minimum horizontal accountability and weak rule of law were found to not automatically increase political risk as before. The paper concludes that there is no single form of hybridity and as such different forms of hybrid regimes accrue different levels of political risk, some lower levels while others substantially higher levels. Therefore, in a hybrid regime, a differentiated PRA monitoring, assessing and mitigation strategy will be most effective for management to implement. Future studies can apply the analytical framework of assessing PRA in a hybrid to another hybrid regime to expand the theoretical propositions made by this paper

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