Odinga and Ruto will lead tight Kenya election race

Significance The veteran opposition leader -- who has already unsuccessfully bid for the presidency four times -- is now seen as the face of the establishment, having formed an alliance with President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is standing down after two terms in office. Impacts Odinga’s camp is confident of victory but this is based as much on his new ‘incumbency advantages’ as on his ability to out-mobilise Ruto. Concerns over Ruto’s lead may encourage Odinga’s allies to use divisive strategies to tarnish his reputation, raising risks of violence. The absence of a strong Kikuyu candidate will ease Kikuyu-Kalenjin tensions and make it easier to manage potential election violence.

Kenya

On 4 March 2013, when Kenyans participated in national presidential and legislative elections, there was wide-spread concern that the underling grievances that erupted during the 2007 and 2008 post-election violence would remerge. However, the polls were relatively peaceful in comparison. This case study will interrogate how mass atrocities were prevented in 2013 in Kenya, despite the prevalence of risk factors which could spark tensions and fuel violence. This article interrogates the local sources of resilience and inhibitors of atrocity crimes and considers the preventive actions that were undertaken and by whom, with a view to understanding what they achieved. In addition, it will assess the outcomes that were achieved as a result of these preventive actions. Through an evaluation of the preventive actions the article will examine which actions proved to be most effective in affecting the risks dynamics of the country in the short, medium and long-term. Kenya’s history of violence and failure to uphold accountability and redress for victims, meant that in 2013, it was significantly prone to the scourge of atrocity crimes. This analysis will draw out a number of key lessons for enhancing the prevention of atrocity crimes in the future.

Effect of Post-Election Violence on the Perfomance of Tourism Industry. A Critical Literature Review

Purpose: A free and transparent electioneering process ideally shuns violence, 21 corruption and other vices encouraging the flourishing of economic activities including tourism leading to a vibrant tourism sector. The general objective of the study was to examine effect of post-election violence on the performance of tourism industry in Kenya. Methodology: The paper used a desk study review methodology where relevant empirical literature was reviewed to identify main themes and to extract knowledge gaps. Findings: The study concluded that election violence affects movement of people within the country, people movements are restricted during the campaigns, local and international members of the fourth estate give prominence to negative news during this period scaring both domestic and international tourist’s arrivals and that people prefer staying in familiar places and fear travelling when there is election violence. Recommendations: The study recommends that the Kenyan security infrastructure should regain civilian confidence: by cultivating citizen-police relations to tame the prevailing account of fear and apathy. This can be worked on and transformed into more justifiable national confidence on the security agencies and a platform created for mutual engagement. This relationship is crucial in helping the security agencies in controlling crime and being able to mitigate the security challenges arising during elections. This way the tourism industry will benefit in terms of enjoying a peaceful environment before, during and after general elections in the country. Once this relationship is built on trust, the police will be able to manage effectively all issues

Understanding Election Violence in the Philippines: Beware the Unknown Assassins of May

Despite election violence being a commonly agreed upon phenomena in the Philippines, there has been a dearth in academic research on the topic in recent years, largely due to a lack of reliable information. To address this, our article adapts recognized methods from studies such as Lindsay Shorr Newman's 2013 paper, together with Stephen McGrath and Paul Gill's 2014 research on terrorism and elections. To expose the timing of election violence, we tracked incidents relative to election dates for the period from 2004 to 2017, with the results indicating that violence increased closer to an election date, and frequency substantially increased during the 14-year period. This is the first academic journal article since John Linantud in 1998 to focus on the issue of election violence in the Philippines but through adaptive methodologies goes further, enabling national analysis. Furthermore, our findings reveal statistically significant differences regarding the types of terrorist attacks and targets when comparing election and non-election periods. We highlight complicating factors such as the majority of attacks being attributed to "unknown" actors and the complex situation during elections. The results also demonstrate that election violence in the Philippines is dominated by the New People's Army and the use of assassination. The paper makes the case for further research and the creation of a dedicated database of election violence in the Philippines and elsewhere, and evaluates the measures implemented by the government that have failed to stem election violence.

Fear of campaign violence and support for democracy and autocracy

Election violence is common in many developing countries and has potentially detrimental implications for democratic consolidation. Drawing on political psychology, we argue that citizens’ fear of campaign violence undermines support for democracy while increasing support for autocracy. Using individual-level survey data from 21 electoral democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa, we find robust support for our argument. Citizens fearing campaign violence are less likely to support democracy and multi-party competition, more likely to favor a return to autocracy, and less likely to turn out to vote. Our findings have important implications for democratic survival and provide further impetus for reducing electoral violence.

Violence will severely undermine Mexican democracy

Headline MEXICO: Election violence will undermine democracy

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In districts that are polarized between politically competing ethnic groups, violence can be targeted with comparative ease at opposing voters, and can, if perpetrated collectively, mobilize the perpetrators’ co-ethnics. I do not expect such dynamics in PR systems where political competition plays out at higher geographical levels. To test this argument, I combine new data on the ethnic composition of local populations in 22 African countries with monthly data on riots and survey data on campaign violence. Ethno-politically polarized districts in majoritarian and mixed electoral systems see substantively larger increases in the number of riots prior to legislative elections and more fear of pre-election violence among citizens than non-polarized districts in the same country and at the same time. I do not find these patterns in PR systems. The results enhance our understanding of how electoral systems interact with local ethnic demography in shaping pre-election violence.