1975 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 716-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. B. Roberts

The problem of calculating the probability of first-passage failure, Pf, is considered, for systems responding to a short pulse of nonstationary random excitation. It is shown, by an analysis based on the “in and exclusion” series, that, under certain conditions, Pf tends to Pf*, the probability calculated by assuming Poisson distributed barrier crossings, as the barrier height, b, tends to infinity. The first three terms in the series solution provide bounds to Pf which converge when b is large. Methods of estimating Pf from these terms are presented which are useful even when the series is divergent. The theory is illustrated by numerical results relating to a linear oscillator excited by modulated white noise.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 477-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Xu ◽  
Xiaoling Jin ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Zhilong Huang

2015 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 1403-1411 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. L. Wang ◽  
X. L. Jin ◽  
Z. L. Huang ◽  
G. Q. Cai

1984 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 674-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. H. Madsen ◽  
S. Krenk

The first-passage problem for a nonstationary stochastic process is formulated as an integral identity, which produces known bounds and series expansions as special cases, while approximation of the kernel leads to an integral equation for the first-passage probability density function. An accurate, explicit approximation formula for the kernel is derived, and the influence of uni or multi modal frequency content of the process is investigated. Numerical results provide comparisons with simulation results and alternative methods for narrow band processes, and also the case of a multimodal, nonstationary process is dealt with.


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