Some Observations on Confidence Intervals and Kriging Errors

Empirical research in marketing often is, at least in parts, exploratory. The goal of exploratory research, by definition, extends beyond the empirical calibration of parameters in well established models and includes the empirical assessment of different model specifications. In this context researchers often rely on the statistical information about parameters in a given model to learn about likely model structures. An example is the search for the 'true' set of covariates in a regression model based on confidence intervals of regression coefficients. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and compare different measures of statistical information about model parameters in the context of a generalized linear model: classical confidence intervals, bootstrapped confidence intervals, and Bayesian posterior credible intervals from a model that adapts its dimensionality as a function of the information in the data. I find that inference from the adaptive Bayesian model dominates that based on classical and bootstrapped intervals in a given model.

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Development of Unit Commitment Model Considering Confidence Intervals of Photovoltaics Forecast and Analysis of a Large Scale Power System

IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy ◽

10.1541/ieejpes.136.484 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 136 (5) ◽

pp. 484-496 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Yusuke Udagawa ◽

Kazuhiko Ogimoto ◽

Takashi Oozeki ◽

Hideaki Ohtake ◽

Takashi Ikegami ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Power System ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Large Scale ◽

Unit Commitment

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AN EVALUATION OF TWO TECHNIQUES FOR CONSTRUCTING CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE SQUARED MULTIPLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

Psychological Reports ◽

10.2466/pr0.67.7.1107-1116 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 67 (7) ◽

pp. 1107 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. NIJSSE

Keyword(s):

Correlation Coefficient ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Multiple Correlation Coefficient ◽

Multiple Correlation

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Verification of the Calculation Assumptions Applied to Solutions of the Acoustic Measurements Uncertainty

Archives of Acoustics ◽

10.2478/aoa-2014-0024 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 39 (2) ◽

pp. 199-202

Author(s):

Wojciech Batko ◽

Renata Bal

Keyword(s):

Normal Distribution ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Uncertainty Of Measurement ◽

Acoustic Measurements ◽

Uncertainty In Measurement ◽

Sound Levels ◽

Measurement Results ◽

Analysis Of Results ◽

Essential Problem ◽

Expression Of Uncertainty

Abstract The assessment of the uncertainty of measurement results, an essential problem in environmental acoustic investigations, is undertaken in the paper. An attention is drawn to the - usually omitted - problem of the verification of assumptions related to using the classic methods of the confidence intervals estimation, for the controlled measuring quantity. Especially the paper directs attention to the need of the verification of the assumption of the normal distribution of the measuring quantity set, being the base for the existing and binding procedures of the acoustic measurements assessment uncertainty. The essence of the undertaken problem concerns the binding legal and standard acts related to acoustic measurements and recommended in: 'Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement' (GUM) (OIML 1993), developed under the aegis of the International Bureau of Measures (BIPM). The model legitimacy of the hypothesis of the normal distribution of the measuring quantity set in acoustic measurements is discussed and supplemented by testing its likelihood on the environment acoustic results. The Jarque-Bery test based on skewness and flattening (curtosis) distribution measures was used for the analysis of results verifying the assumption. This test allows for the simultaneous analysis of the deviation from the normal distribution caused both by its skewness and flattening. The performed experiments concerned analyses of the distribution of sound levels: LD, LE, LN, LDWN, being the basic noise indicators in assessments of the environment acoustic hazards.

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Two-Condition Within-Participant Statistical Mediation Analysis: A Path-Analytic Framework

10.31234/osf.io/4su2j ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Amanda Kay Montoya ◽

Andrew F. Hayes

Keyword(s):

Confidence Intervals ◽

Indirect Effect ◽

Mediation Analysis ◽

Analytic Approach ◽

Analytic Framework ◽

Hypothesis Tests ◽

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals ◽

Complex Models ◽

Path Analytic ◽

Statistical Mediation Analysis

Researchers interested in testing mediation often use designs where participants are measured on a dependent variable Y and a mediator M in both of two different circumstances. The dominant approach to assessing mediation in such a design, proposed by Judd, Kenny, and McClelland (2001), relies on a series of hypothesis tests about components of the mediation model and is not based on an estimate of or formal inference about the indirect effect. In this paper we recast Judd et al.’s approach in the path-analytic framework that is now commonly used in between-participant mediation analysis. By so doing, it is apparent how to estimate the indirect effect of a within-participant manipulation on some outcome through a mediator as the product of paths of influence. This path analytic approach eliminates the need for discrete hypothesis tests about components of the model to support a claim of mediation, as Judd et al’s method requires, because it relies only on an inference about the product of paths— the indirect effect. We generalize methods of inference for the indirect effect widely used in between-participant designs to this within-participant version of mediation analysis, including bootstrap confidence intervals and Monte Carlo confidence intervals. Using this path analytic approach, we extend the method to models with multiple mediators operating in parallel and serially and discuss the comparison of indirect effects in these more complex models. We offer macros and code for SPSS, SAS, and Mplus that conduct these analyses.

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