Coordinated Distributed Experiments (CDEs) Applied to Earthquake Forecast Test Sites

2019 ◽  
pp. 107-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongliang Wu ◽  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Jiawei Li
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Forecast

scholarly journals Setting up an earthquake forecast experiment in Italy

2010 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danijel Schorlemmer ◽  
Annemarie Christophersen ◽  
Andrea Rovida ◽  
Francesco Mele ◽  
Massimiliano Stucchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Forecast

scholarly journals POSSIBILITY OF EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY RADIO OBSERVATIONS IN THE VHF BAND

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-255
Author(s):  
Yoshio Kushida ◽  
Reiki Kushida
Keyword(s):  
Radio Observations ◽  
Earthquake Forecast

Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes from satellites

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo De Santis ◽  
Saioa A. Campuzano ◽  
Gianfranco Cianchini ◽  
Domenico Di Mauro ◽  
Dedalo Marchetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Random Distribution ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Simple Scheme ◽  
Precursors Of Earthquakes ◽  
Space Distance ◽  
Space Approach

<p>In-situ magnetic field and electron density, as observed by Swarm and CSES satellites, are analyzed to identify possible anomalies in geomagnetic quiet time with respect to the ionospheric background. To avoid detecting possible anomalies induced by auroral activity we investigate regions between +50 and -50 degrees in magnetic latitude. Then a superposed epoch and space approach is applied to this anomaly dataset with respect to their time and space distance from shallow M5.5+ earthquakes occurred in about last 6 years. A comparison with analogous homogeneous random distribution of anomalies shows that the real anomaly concentrations found before the occurrence of earthquakes are statistically significant. In addition, we find that, in general, the anticipation times of the ionospheric precursors scale with the earthquake magnitude, confirming the validity of the Rikitake law for ionospheric signals, previously valid for ground precursors. We also find that the anomaly duration seems to depend on the magnitude of the impending earthquake. Finally, we propose a simple scheme of potential earthquake forecast on the base of the previously mentioned characteristics.</p>

A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1279-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Field ◽  
Keith Porter ◽  
Kevin Milner
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Main Shocks ◽  
Scenario Earthquakes ◽  
Elastic Rebound ◽  
Spatiotemporal Clustering ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
Aftershock Statistics

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

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