The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality

Anatoli I. Yashin; Kenneth G. Manton; Max A. Woodbury; Eric Stallard

doi:10.1007/bf00180134

The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality

Journal of Mathematical Biology ◽

10.1007/bf00180134 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 34 (1) ◽

pp. 1-16 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Anatoli I. Yashin ◽

Kenneth G. Manton ◽

Max A. Woodbury ◽

Eric Stallard

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Process ◽

Process Models

Download Full-text

Replicating the Recovery following the 2014 South Napa Earthquake using Stochastic Process Models

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/012917eqs020m ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (3) ◽

pp. 1247-1266 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Hua Kang ◽

Henry V. Burton ◽

Haoxiang Miao

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Process ◽

Repair Time ◽

Process Models ◽

Time Data ◽

Data Set ◽

Damage Data ◽

Exogenous Factors ◽

Recovery Models ◽

Statistical Relationships ◽

Recovery Trajectory

Post-earthquake recovery models can be used as decision support tools for pre-event planning. However, due to a lack of available data, there have been very few opportunities to validate and/or calibrate these models. This paper describes the use of building damage, permitting, and repair data from the 2014 South Napa Earthquake to evaluate a stochastic process post-earthquake recovery model. Damage data were obtained for 1,470 buildings, and permitting and repair time data were obtained for a subset (456) of those buildings. A “blind” prediction is shown to adequately capture the shape of the recovery trajectory despite overpredicting the overall pace of the recovery. Using the mean time to permit and repair time from the acquired data set significantly improves the accuracy of the recovery prediction. A generalized model is formulated by establishing statistical relationships between key time parameters and endogenous and exogenous factors that have been shown to influence the pace of recovery.

Download Full-text

Models of Movement: A Review of Alternative Methods

Environment and Planning A Economy and Space ◽

10.1068/a121383 ◽

1980 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 1383-1404 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

A Pickles

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Process ◽

Transition Rate ◽

Process Models ◽

Alternative Methods ◽

Occupancy Models ◽

Alternative Approaches ◽

Fixed State

This paper reviews methods available to analyse movement and in particular migration. Stochastic process models seem able to provide a framework for microanalysis which can incorporate much of the complexity of such processes. However, a consideration of the effect of macro-constraints, in the form of limited opportunities for movement and of interhousehold competition, leads to a distinction between fixed transition rate and fixed state occupancy models. Alternative approaches to fixed state occupancy models are considered, and some of their potential strengths and weaknesses are discussed.

Download Full-text