Evaluation of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the CORDEX-East Asia multi-RCM simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 765-778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
Myoung-Seok Suh ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cordex East Asia

scholarly journals Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity during the Break of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon in Early August

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 2457-2469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Xu ◽  
Riyu Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Mariana Islands ◽  
Cyclone Activity

Abstract The modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) activity by the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon break is investigated by analyzing the subseasonal evolution of TCs and corresponding circulations, based on 65 years of data from 1950 to 2014. The monsoon break has been identified as occurring over the WNP in early August. The present results show that TC occurrence decreases (increases) remarkably to the east of the Mariana Islands (southeast of Japan) during the monsoon break, which is closely related to local anomalous midtropospheric downward (upward) motion and lower-tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation, in comparison with the previous and subsequent convective periods in late July and mid-August. These changes of TC activity and the corresponding circulation during the monsoon break are more significant in typical monsoon break years when the monsoon break phenomenon is predominant. The reverse changes of TC activity to the east of the Mariana Islands and to the southeast of Japan during the monsoon break are closely associated with the out-of-phase subseasonal evolutions over these two regions from late July to mid-August, which are both contributed to greatly by 10–25-day oscillations. Finally, the roles of midlatitude and tropical disturbances on 10–25-day oscillations are also discussed.

scholarly journals Future Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Multi-RCMs Forced by HadGEM2-AO

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 5053-5067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeonjae Lee ◽  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Minkyu Lee ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cordex East Asia

AbstractFuture changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed using four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. All RCMs are forced by the HadGEM2-AO under the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50-km resolution over the CORDEX-East Asia domain. In the historical simulations (1980–2005), multi-RCM ensembles yield realistic climatology for TC tracks and genesis frequency during the TC season (June–November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future (2024–49) projections indicate an insignificant increase in the total number of TC genesis (+5%), but a significant increase in track density over East Asia coastal regions (+17%). The enhanced TC activity over the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased sea surface temperature (SST) at midlatitudes. The future accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of total TCs increases significantly (+19%) because individual TCs have a longer lifetime (+6.6%) and stronger maximum wind speed (+4.1%) compared to those in the historical run. In particular, the ACE of TCs passing through 25°N increases by 45.9% in the future climate, indicating that the destructiveness of TCs can be significantly enhanced in the midlatitudes despite the total number of TCs not changing greatly.

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