A Statistical Intra-Seasonal Prediction Model of Extended Boreal Summer Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis

A L2 regularized logistic regression model is developed in this study to predict weekly tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) and sub-regions of the WNP including the South China Sea (SCS), the western WNP (WWNP), and the eastern WNP (EWNP). The potential predictors for the TC genesis model include a time-varying TC genesis climatology, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), and ENSO. The relative importance of the predictors in a constructed L2 regression model is justified by a forward stepwise selection procedure for each region from a 0-week to a 7-week lead. Cross-validated hindcasts are then generated for the corresponding prediction schemes out to a 7-week lead. The TC genesis climatology generally improves the regional model skill, while the importance of intra-seasonal oscillations and ENSO are regionally dependent. Over the WNP, there is increased model skill over the time-varying climatology in predicting weekly TC genesis out to a 4-week lead by including the MJO and QBWO, while ENSO has a limited impact. On a regional scale, ENSO and then the MJO and QBWO respectively, are the two most important predictors over the EWNP and WWNP after the TC genesis climatology. The MJO is found to be the most important predictor over the SCS. The logistic regression model is shown to have comparable reliability and forecast skill scores to the ECMWF dynamical model on intra-seasonal time scales.

Observing intermittent biological productivity and vertical carbon transports during the spring transition with BGC Argo floats in the western North Pacific

To investigate changes in ocean structure during the spring transition and responses of biological activity, two BGC-Argo floats equipped with oxygen, fluorescence (to estimate chlorophyll a concentration – Chl a), backscatter (to estimate particulate organic carbon concentration – [POC]), and nitrate sensors conducted daily vertical profiles of the water column from a depth of 2000 m to the sea surface in the western North Pacific from January to April of 2018. Data for calibrating each sensor were obtained via shipboard sampling that occurred when the floats were deployed and recovered. During the float-deployment periods, repeated meteorological disturbances passed over the study area and caused the mixed layer to deepen. After deep-mixing events, the upper layer restratified and nitrate concentrations decreased while Chl a and POC concentrations increased, suggesting that spring mixing events promote primary productivity through the temporary alleviation of nutrient and light limitation. At the end of March, POC accumulation rates and nitrate decrease rates within the euphotic zone (0–70 m) were the largest of the four events observed, ranging from +84 to +210 mmol C m−2 d−1 and –28 to –49 mmol N m−2 d−1, respectively. The subsurface consumption rate of oxygen (i.e., the degradation rate of organic matter) after the fourth event (the end of March) was estimated to be –0.62 micromol O2 kg−1 d−1. At depths of 300–400 m (below the mixed layer), the POC concentrations increased slightly throughout the observation period. The POC flux at a depth of 300 m was estimated to be 1.1 mmol C m−2 d−1. Our float observation has made it possible to observed biogeochemical parameters, which previously could only be estimated by shipboard observation and experiments, in the field and in real time.

Asymmetric Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Events Over the Western North Pacific and Their Impacts on East Asian Precipitation

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the most prominent tropical subseasonal signature especially over the western North Pacific (WNP). Due to restrictions of methodology in extracting BSISO with band-pass filtering or EOF decomposition, most of the previous studies ignored the asymmetry of BSISO. This study reexamines the BSISO events over WNP and their impacts on the East Asian precipitation. With a hierarchical cluster analysis, the BSISO events over WNP during the summers of 1985-2010 are classified into two categories, the long-period (30-60 day) and short-period (10-20 day) events. The long-period BSISO events manifest as a northward propagating mode with a significant phase asymmetry characterized by a fast development, but a slow decay of the intraseasonal convection. The fast development tends to cause a rapid reversal of the atmospheric anomalies over WNP from an anomalous anticyclone induced by the preceding slow convection suppression to an anomalous cyclone, leading to a fast northeastward retreat of the preceding enhanced western North Pacific subtropical high. Accordingly, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River valley experience a rapid reversal from the increased precipitation to the decreased, while the precipitation in coastal South China keeps decreased. The short-period BSISO events which are symmetric in phase act as a northwestward propagating mode, mainly affecting East Asian precipitation in an oblique belt extending from southwest China to southern Japan and southern Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the two types of the BSISO events especially the asymmetric long-period BSISO events over WNP and their impacts on the East Asian precipitation revealed in this study would provide a new potential for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast of the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation.

Deep Water Pathways In The North Pacific Ocean Revealed By Lagrangian Particle Tracking

Lagrangian particle tracking experiments are conducted to investigate the pathways of deep water in the North Pacific Ocean. The flow field is taken from a state-of-the-art deep circulation simulation. An unprecedented number of particles are tracked to quantify the volume transport and residence time. Half of the North Pacific deep water returns to the Southern Ocean, and its principal pathway is along the western boundary current in the Southwest Pacific Basin in the deep layer. About 30 % is exported to the Indian Ocean after upwelling to the shallow layer in the western North Pacific Ocean. The rest is transported to the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait or evaporates within the Pacific Ocean. Upwelling of deep water is confined in the western North Pacific Ocean owing to the strong vertical mixing. The mean residence time of deep water in the North Pacific Ocean is estimated to be several hundred years, which is considerably shorter than the conventional understandings of the deep Pacific Ocean circulation.

The Controlling of the Subtropical High Leading Modes on the Spatial Pattern of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western North Pacific and Tracks Landing on the East Coast of China

As a prime circulation system, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) significantly impacts tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP), especially TCs landing on the east coast of China; however, the associated mechanism is not firmly established. This study investigates the underlying dynamic impact of the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the WPSH on the interannual variability in the genesis and number of TCs landing over the WNP. The results show that these two dominant modes control the WNP TC activity over different subregions via different environmental factors. The first mode (EOF1) affects the TC genesis number over region I (105°–128° E, 5°–30° N) (r = −0.49) and region II (130°–175° E, 17°–30° N) (r = −0.5) and controls the TCs landing on the east coast of China, while the second mode (EOF2) affects the TC genesis number over region III (128°–175° E, 5°–17° N) (r = −0.69). The EOF1 mode, a southwest-northeast-oriented enhanced pattern, causes the WPSH to expand (retreat) along the southwest-northeast direction, which makes both mid-low-level relative humidity and low-level vorticity unfavorable (favorable) for TC genesis in region I and region II and steers fewer (more) TC tracks to land on the coast of China. The EOF2 mode features a strengthened WPSH over the southeast quarter of the WNP region. The active (inactive) phases of this mode control the low-level vorticity and vertical wind shear in region III, which lead to less (more) TC genesis over this region. The prediction equations combining the two modes of the WPSH for the total number of TCs and TCs that make landfall show high correlation coefficients. Our findings verify the high prediction skill of the WPSH on WNP TC activities, provide a new way to predict TCs that will make landfall on the east coast of China, and help to improve the future projection of WNP TC activity.