Stochastic tracking of mesoscale convective systems: evaluation in the West African Sahel

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 681-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Makris ◽  
Clémentine Prieur ◽  
Théo Vischel ◽  
Guillaume Quantin ◽  
Thierry Lebel ◽  
...  
2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (12) ◽  
pp. 4600-4623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdou L. Dieng ◽  
Laurence Eymard ◽  
Saidou M. Sall ◽  
Alban Lazar ◽  
Marion Leduc-Leballeur

Abstract A large number of Atlantic tropical depressions are generated in the eastern basin in relation to the African easterly wave (AEW) and embedded mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) coming from the African continent. In this paper, the structures of strengthening and dissipating MCSs evolving near the West African coast are analyzed, including the role of the ocean surface conditions in their evolution. Satellite infrared brightness temperature and meteorological radar data over seven summer seasons between 1993 and 2006 are used to subjectively select 20 cases of strengthening and dissipating MCSs in the vicinity of the Senegal coast. With these observed MCSs, a lagged composite analysis is then performed using Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). It is shown that the strengthening MCS is generally preceded by prior passage of an AEW near the West African coast. This previous wave trough is associated with a convective cyclonic circulation in the low and middle troposphere, which enhances the southwesterly flow and then provides humidity to the strengthening MCS, located in the vicinity of the subsequent AEW trough. This is favored by the contraction of the wavelength associated with the two troughs. The sea surface contributes to the MCS enhancement through surface evaporation flux. But this contribution is found to be less important than advection of humidity from the previous wave trough. These conditions are almost not found in the dissipating MCS cases, which dissipate in a dry environment dominated by a subsident and anticyclonic circulation, with generally no interaction with a previous wave trough.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 103110
Author(s):  
L. Champion ◽  
N. Gestrich ◽  
K. MacDonald ◽  
L. Nieblas-Ramirez ◽  
D.Q. Fuller

Food Policy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
pp. 39-47
Author(s):  
Federica Alfani ◽  
Andrew Dabalen ◽  
Peter Fisker ◽  
Vasco Molini

2004 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.M. Haefele ◽  
M.C.S. Wopereis ◽  
A.-M. Schloebohm ◽  
H. Wiechmann

Author(s):  
Guillaume Chagnaud ◽  
Geremy Panthou ◽  
Theo Vischel ◽  
Thierry Lebel

Abstract The West African Sahel has been facing for more than 30 years an increase in extreme rainfalls with strong socio-economic impacts. This situation challenges decision-makers to define adaptation strategies in a rapidly changing climate. The present study proposes (i) a quantitative characterization of the trends in extreme rainfalls at the regional scale, (ii) the translation of the trends into metrics that can be used by hydrological risk managers, (iii) elements for understanding the link between the climatology of extreme and mean rainfall. Based on a regional non-stationary statistical model applied to in-situ daily rainfall data over the period 1983-2015, we show that the region-wide increasing trend in extreme rainfalls is highly significant. The change in extreme value distribution reflects an increase in both the mean and variability, producing a 5%/decade increase in extreme rainfall intensity whatever the return period. The statistical framework provides operational elements for revising the design methods of hydraulic structures which most often assume a stationary climate. Finally, the study shows that the increase in extreme rainfall is more attributable to an increase in the intensity of storms (80%) than to their occurrence (20%), reflecting a major disruption from the decadal variability of the rainfall regime documented in the region since 1950.


Author(s):  
Federica Alfani ◽  
Andrew Dabalen ◽  
Peter Fisker ◽  
Vasco Molini

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