A synthetic view of rainfall intensiﬁcation in the West African Sahel

Abstract The West African Sahel has been facing for more than 30 years an increase in extreme rainfalls with strong socio-economic impacts. This situation challenges decision-makers to define adaptation strategies in a rapidly changing climate. The present study proposes (i) a quantitative characterization of the trends in extreme rainfalls at the regional scale, (ii) the translation of the trends into metrics that can be used by hydrological risk managers, (iii) elements for understanding the link between the climatology of extreme and mean rainfall. Based on a regional non-stationary statistical model applied to in-situ daily rainfall data over the period 1983-2015, we show that the region-wide increasing trend in extreme rainfalls is highly significant. The change in extreme value distribution reflects an increase in both the mean and variability, producing a 5%/decade increase in extreme rainfall intensity whatever the return period. The statistical framework provides operational elements for revising the design methods of hydraulic structures which most often assume a stationary climate. Finally, the study shows that the increase in extreme rainfall is more attributable to an increase in the intensity of storms (80%) than to their occurrence (20%), reflecting a major disruption from the decadal variability of the rainfall regime documented in the region since 1950.

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The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability

ISRN Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2013/453521 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-32 ◽

Cited By ~ 280

Author(s):

Sharon E. Nicholson

Keyword(s):

Interannual Variability ◽

Land Surface ◽

Field Experiments ◽

West African Monsoon ◽

West African ◽

Rainfall Regime ◽

The West ◽

African Monsoon ◽

West African Sahel ◽

African Sahel

The West African Sahel is well known for the severe droughts that ravaged the region in the 1970s and 1980s. Meteorological research on the region has flourished during the last decade as a result of several major field experiments. This paper provides an overview of the results that have ensued. A major focus has been on the West African monsoon, a phenomenon that links all of West Africa. The characteristics and revised picture of the West African monsoon are emphasized. Other topics include the interannual variability of rainfall, the atmospheric circulation systems that govern interannual variability, characteristics of precipitation and convection, wave activity, large-scale factors in variability (including sea-surface temperatures), and land-atmosphere relationships. New paradigms for the monsoon and associated ITCZ and for interannual variability have emerged. These emphasize features in the upper atmosphere, as well as the Saharan Heat Low. Feedback mechanisms have also been emphasized, especially the coupling of convection with atmospheric dynamics and with land surface characteristics. New results also include the contrast between the premonsoon and peak monsoon seasons, two preferred modes of interannual variability (a latitudinal displacement of the tropical rainbelt versus changes in its intensity), and the critical importance of the Tropical Easterly Jet.

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