Climate events and the role of adaptive capacity for (im-)mobility

The study examines the relationship between sudden- and gradual-onset climate events and migration, hypothesizing that this relationship is mediated by the adaptive capacity of affected individuals. We use survey data from regions of Cambodia, Nicaragua, Peru, Uganda, and Vietnam that were affected by both types of events with representative samples of non-migrant residents and referral samples of migrants. Although some patterns are country-specific, the general findings indicate that less educated and lower-income people are less likely to migrate after exposure to sudden-onset climate events compared to their counterparts with higher levels of education and economic resources. These results caution against sweeping predictions that future climate-related events will be accompanied by widespread migration.

Complex climate and network effects on internal migration in South Africa revealed by a network model

Climate variability and climate change influence human migration both directly and indirectly through a variety of channels that are controlled by individual and household socioeconomic, cultural, and psychological processes as well as public policies and network effects. Characterizing and predicting migration flows are thus extremely complex and challenging. Among the quantitative methods available for predicting such flows is the widely used gravity model that ignores the network autocorrelation among flows and thus may lead to biased estimation of the climate effects of interest. In this study, we use a network model, the additive and multiplicative effects model for network (AMEN), to investigate the effects of climate variability, migrant networks, and their interactions on South African internal migration. Our results indicate that prior migrant networks have a significant influence on migration and can modify the association between climate variability and migration flows. We also reveal an otherwise obscure difference in responses to these effects between migrants moving to urban and non-urban destinations. With different metrics, we discover diverse drought effects on these migrants; for example, the negative standardized precipitation index (SPI) with a timescale of 12 months affects the non-urban-oriented migrants’ destination choices more than the rainy season rainfall deficit or soil moisture do. Moreover, we find that socioeconomic factors such as the unemployment rate are more significant to urban-oriented migrants, while some unobserved factors, possibly including the abolition of apartheid policies, appear to be more important to non-urban-oriented migrants.

Is migration an effective adaptation to climate-related agricultural distress in sub-Saharan Africa?

Migration is often considered a form of climate change adaptation by which individuals, households, and communities seek to reduce the risks associated with climate change. In this study, we examine first-time seasonal migration out of a village in North-Western Burkina Faso to neighbouring countries, triggered by more irregular rainfall patterns. Through a set of 52 qualitative interviews, we analyse the perceptions of migrants themselves as well as the sending community regarding migration consequences. Men migrated in the off-season, whereas women stayed behind. Most migrant men and wives of migrants perceive migration to have negative consequences for their socio-economic situation and their health. Despite this, a lack of options and deteriorating environmental conditions might force the men to move again. We interpreted the range of narratives provided by women and men against the background of the scientific literature on migration as climate change adaptation. While migration could be beneficial, this study challenges the notion of migration as an effective adaptation strategy for people in climate-vulnerable settings, who lack other options.

Altitude and early child growth in 47 countries

The relationship between altitude of residence and child linear growth is studied using data for 630,499 children below age 5 years born between 1992 and 2016, as recorded in 47 countries at elevations ranging from − 377 to 4498 m above sea level. Regressions are used to measure the role of household, community, and environmental factors in explaining an observed altitude effect on linear growth. Controlling for birth year and country effects, and a range of factors correlated with altitude and associated with nutrition outcomes, for each 1000 m gain in elevation, height for age z score (HAZ) declines by 0.195 points on average. Country-specific estimates of the association vary and include positive associations. Results highlight the potential links between developmental risks for children and features of their physical environment.

Climate Mobility and Development Cooperation

Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More recently, as concern has risen about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human mobility, development cooperation actors have begun to design projects that intentionally address the drivers of migration, including climate impacts on livelihoods. However, to date, we know little about the development cooperation’s role and function in responding to climate related mobility and migration. As such, the main aim of this paper is to outline the policy frameworks and approaches shaping development cooperation actors’ engagement and to identify areas for further exploration and investment. First, we frame the concept of climate mobility and migration and discuss some applicable policy frameworks that govern the issue from various perspectives; secondly, we review the toolbox of approaches that development cooperation actors bring to climate mobility; and third, we discuss the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic and identify avenues for the way forward. We conclude that ensuring safe and orderly mobility and the decent reception and long-term inclusion of migrants and displaced persons under conditions of more severe climate hazards, and in the context of rising nationalism and xenophobia, poses significant challenges. Integrated approaches across multiple policy sectors and levels of governance are needed. In addition to resources, development cooperation actors can bring data to help empower the most affected communities and regions and leverage their convening power to foster more coordinated approaches within and across countries.

Migration and fuel use in rural Zambia

What is the effect of migration on fuel use in rural Zambia? Opportunities to increase income can be scarce in this setting; in response, households may pursue a migration strategy to increase resources as well as to mitigate risk. Migrant remittances may make it possible for households to shift from primary reliance on firewood to charcoal, and the loss of productive labor through migration may reinforce this shift. This paper uses four waves of panel data collected as part of the Child Grant Programme in rural Zambia to examine the connection between migration and the choice of firewood or charcoal as cooking fuel and finds evidence for both mechanisms. Importantly, this paper considers migration as a process, including out as well as return migration, embedding it in the context of household dynamics generally. Empirical results suggest that while out-migration helps move households away from firewood as a fuel source, return migration moves them back, but because the former is more common, the overall effect of migration is to shift households away from primary reliance on firewood.