Time-dependent intuitionistic fuzzy system reliability analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 14441-14448
Author(s):  
Mohammad Ghasem Akbari ◽  
Gholamreza Hesamian
2015 ◽  
Vol 137 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Sankaran Mahadevan

This paper proposes a novel and efficient methodology for time-dependent system reliability analysis of systems with multiple limit-state functions of random variables, stochastic processes, and time. Since there are correlations and variations between components and over time, the overall system is formulated as a random field with two dimensions: component index and time. To overcome the difficulties in modeling the two-dimensional random field, an equivalent Gaussian random field is constructed based on the probability equivalency between the two random fields. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is employed to obtain important features of the equivalent random field. By generating samples from the equivalent random field, the time-dependent system reliability is estimated from Boolean functions defined according to the system topology. Using one system reliability analysis, the proposed method can get not only the entire time-dependent system probability of failure curve up to a time interval of interest but also two other important outputs, namely, the time-dependent probability of failure of individual components and dominant failure sequences. Three examples featuring series, parallel, and combined systems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.


Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Sankaran Mahadevan

Multidisciplinary systems will remain in transient states when time-dependent interactions are present among the coupling variables. This brings significant challenges to time-dependent multidisciplinary system reliability analysis. This paper develops an adaptive surrogate modeling approach (ASMA) for multidisciplinary system reliability analysis under time-dependent uncertainty. The proposed framework consists of three modules, namely initialization, uncertainty propagation, and three-level global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The first two modules check the quality of the surrogate models and determine when and where we should refine the surrogate models. Approaches are then proposed to estimate the potential error of the failure probability estimate and determine the location of the new training point. In the third module (i.e. three-level GSA), a method is developed to decide which surrogate model to refine, through GSA at three different levels. These three modules are integrated together systematically and enable us to adaptively allocate the computational resources to refine different surrogate models in the system and thus achieve high accuracy and efficiency in time-dependent multidisciplinary system reliability analysis. Results of two numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.


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