Dynamic Packet Duplication for Industrial URLLC

The fifth-generation (5G) network is presented as one of the main options for Industry 4.0 connectivity. To comply with critical messages, 5G offers the Ultra-Reliable and Low latency Communications (URLLC) service category with a millisecond end-to-end delay and reduced probability of failure. There are several approaches to achieve these requirements; however, these come at a cost in terms of redundancy, particularly the solutions based on multi-connectivity, such as Packet Duplication (PD). Specifically, this paper proposes a Machine Learning (ML) method to predict whether PD is required at a specific data transmission to successfully send a URLLC message. This paper is focused on reducing the resource usage with respect to pure static PD. The concept was evaluated on a 5G simulator, comparing between single connection, static PD and PD with the proposed prediction model. The evaluation results show that the prediction model reduced the number of packets sent with PD by 81% while maintaining the same level of latency as a static PD technique, which derives from a more efficient usage of the network resources.

Investigation of the Operational and Technological Reliability of the Small-size Internal Threading Process

The article presents the results of research in the direction of improving technological equipment for internal threading of parts in a flexible automated production. Methods for assessing the operational and technological reliability of a flexible manufacturing module (FMM) of thread processing are considered, which can be used as the basis for the developed method of synthesis of its elements. It is proposed to consider the technological system of the flexible manufacturing module (FMM) of thread processing as a system in which transitions from state to state occur under the action of the simplest flows with parameters of the transition probabilities of a continuous Markov chain. The developed mathematical model describing the state of the FMM taking into account the failures of the functioning of its elements, parametric failures, as well as taking into account the recovery after these types of failures, makes it possible to reflect the influence on the operation of the module of the parameters of the flows of failures and restorations of the tool, machine tool, fixture, loading device. The solution of the obtained systems of equations of final probabilities allows for given (or experimentally obtained) intensities of failure streams (functioning and parametric) for FMM threading to obtain the values of the probability of failure-free operation, as well as the probabilities of finding the system in an inoperative state due to corresponding failures. The measures taken make it possible to solve the synthesis problem at the level of structural and layout optimization, so that at the stage of parametric synthesis to determine the elements that are vulnerable according to the developed criterion, the improvement of which will lead to the creation of the most efficient system.

Reliability Assessment of RC Bridges Subjected to Seismic Loadings

An approach to estimate both the reliability index β and its complement, the probability of failure, through closed-form expressions that consider aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, is proposed. Alternatively, exceedance demand rates are obtained based on simplified expressions and numerical integration. Reliability indicators are calculated, considering the uncertainties in the compressive strength of concrete, steel yield, and section geometry, together with the aleatory uncertainties related to seismic loadings. Such indicators are estimated in a continuous RC bridge located in Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico. The bridge was designed to comply with a drift of 0.004. Exceedance demand rates for drift thresholds from 0.001 to 0.012 are estimated, and maximum differences of 5.5% are found between the closed-form expression and numerical integration. The exceedance demand rate expressed by means of its inverse, the return period, indicates that the serviceability limit state is exceeded after 58 years of the bridge construction. The reliability index decreases by about 1.66%, and the probability of failure increases by about 16.1% when the epistemic uncertainties are considered. The approach shows the importance of epistemic uncertainties in the estimation of reliability indicators.

A Comprehensive Approach to Account for Weather Uncertainties in Ship Route Optimization

This work aims at defining in a probabilistic manner objectives and constraints typically considered in route optimization systems. Information about weather-related uncertainties is introduced by adopting ensemble forecast results. Classical reliability methods commonly used in structural analysis are adopted, allowing to achieve a simple yet effective evaluation of the probability of failure and the variability associated with the predicted fuel consumption and time of arrival. A quantitative example of application is provided, taking into consideration one of the main North Atlantic routes.

SURVIVABILITY OF SHIPS AT SEA: A PROPOSED MODEL TO ACCOUNT FOR HUMAN FACTORS IN A SAFETY-CRITICAL SYSTEM

Most serious accidents at sea are caused by minor incidents that escalated into an uncontrolled situation. This study is aiming to develop a model to investigate the likelihood of fatal accidents, given that a critical incident has already occurred. The focus of the study is on human behaviour, adopting a hardware reliability perspective. The vessel is considered as a safety-critical system to be protected by several barriers. The crew role is modelled as active barriers and distinguishing between different functions: perception, decision and action. A Markov approach is proposed to model different situations on the vessel. A mathematical model to estimate the probability of failure in an emergency situation is formulated. A new parameter is defined for the survivability of a vessel, given that a critical incident has taken place. The methods were applied to examine ship-platform collisions cases and the results show strong benefits for diagnosing and evaluating accidents from a human factors perspective as well as for training purposes.

CHANGE OF STEEL’S YIELD STRESS OVER SHIP’S SERVICE LIFE AND ITS EFFECT ON THE FIRST YIELD HULL GIRDER BENDING MOMENT

The publication deals with the decrease of the yield and tensile stress of high tensile shipbuilding steel AH-32 over ship’s service life and its effect on the first yield bending moment as a representative of the hull girder capacity. An example is given for a sample 25K DWT (25 thousand tons deadweight) bulk carrier. The probability of failure is calculated as the probability of the total hull girder bending moment exceeding the first yield bending moment. The probabilistic distributions of yield and tensile stress are obtained from laboratory test of the specimen of AH-32 steel (corroded plates of a 20 year old ship). It is found that although the decrease of yield stress may not be great, the increase of the probability of failure (i.e., the probability yield bending moment) could be substantial.

Reliability Based Structural Risk Assessments and Associated Economic Gains

Managing a large fleet of offshore structures is a dynamic process that aims at minimising risks to personnel, environment, and businesses, as well as minimising the associated Operations Expenditure. Through the collaborative efforts of ADNOC Offshore and Kent, formerly Atkins Oil & Gas, (Atkins, 2020), revised structural evaluation and integrity approaches have yielded significant cost savings. The considerable savings were associated with the elimination of the requirement for installing many new offshore structures and through reducing the subsea inspection associated efforts. The approach for evaluating the offshore assets’ structural performance was developed based on adopting target probability of failure figures subject to each asset's consequence of failure. Accordingly, structural reliability analyses were conducted specific to each structure, where the analysis considered structure specific environmental hazard curves and failure surfaces. Through mapping the evaluated structural probability of failure and ADNOC's corporate risk matrix's HSE Likelihood, each structure was precisely placed on the risk matrix. Furthermore, the inspection intervals and Topsides, Splash Zone, Subsea Levels I, II and III were mapped to each risk evaluation on the risk matrix. The optimisation approach of adopting a structure specific reliability analysis and mapping with ADNOC's corporate risk matrix yielded considerable cost benefits while providing a more accurate representation of each asset's risk. As a result of the implementation of the developed process, approximately 41% of the assets got lower risk evaluation compared to the legacy approach and presented extra structural capacities that can be utilised for future expansions and eliminating the requirement for installation of new assets. As the process expanded to include asset inspections, the subsea inspection requirements reduced by approximately 43% reflecting a considerable decrease in operating costs. A major contribution of the risk improvement is attributed to the consideration of the storm prevailing approach directions, the joint probability of wave and current magnitudes and directions, as well as the relative alignment of each structure. The developed approaches provide a framework that allows continuous update of the risk assessment and enables executives and management to make risk-based-decision supported by a consistent measure of structural risk. This has been translated into the generation of the Structural Passports (Summary reports) clearly demonstrating the assets current risk and recommendations for mitigation measures, if deemed required.

Study on the Development of Seismic Fragility of Steel SMRF

Vulnerability assessment of the structure is the most important and wide area of research which requires more input from the engineers and seismologist. The seismic vulnerability assessment of the structure can be evaluated by developing Fragility curves. Fragility curves shows the conditional probability of the structure exceeding the particular performance limit of the given damage state during strong ground motions. Fragility curves can be developed for different parameters like spectral displacement (Sd), spectral acceleration (Sa) Peak ground acceleration (PGA) , Inter storey drift ratio (IDR) etc. This paper describes about the different methods used in deriving the Fragility curves like conventional methods, Nonlinear Dynamic analysis methods and Nonlinear Static analysis methods. Also the fragility analysis of 5 Storied Steel Moment Resisting Frame (SMRF) has been carried out based on the parameters suggested by HAZUS M.H 2.1. Nonlinear static pushover analysis of the frame has been carried out in ETABS2016. Fragility curves are developed based on the pushover analysis results. The damage states defined as per HAZUS are Slight damage (SD), Moderate damage (MD) Extensive damage (ED) and Complete damage (CD). After carrying out the fragility analysis for the steel SMRF, it has been found out that, as the spectral displacement increases probability of failure for the slight damage of the structure is very high and the probability of failure for the complete damage is very low. Hence the probability of failure of the structure reduces from slight damage to complete damage. Keywords: Fragility curves, vulnerability assessment, Nonlinear static pushover analysis, HAZUS M.H 2.1.

Improving bounds on probabilistic affine tests to estimate the nonlinearity of Boolean functions

In this paper we want to estimate the nonlinearity of Boolean functions, by probabilistic methods, when it is computationally very expensive, or perhaps not feasible to compute the full Walsh transform (which is the case for almost all functions in a larger number of variables, say more than 30). Firstly, we significantly improve upon the bounds of Zhang and Zheng (1999) on the probabilities of failure of affinity tests based on nonhomomorphicity, in particular, we prove a new lower bound that we have previously conjectured. This new lower bound generalizes the one of Bellare et al. (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 42(6), 1781–1795 1996) to nonhomomorphicity tests of arbitrary order. Secondly, we prove bounds on the probability of failure of a proposed affinity test that uses the BLR linearity test. All these bounds are expressed in terms of the function’s nonlinearity, and we exploit that to provide probabilistic methods for estimating the nonlinearity based upon these affinity tests. We analyze our estimates and conclude that they have reasonably good accuracy, particularly so when the nonlinearity is low.