scholarly journals Hierarchical Bayes modelling of penalty conversion rates of Bundesliga players

Author(s):  
Christoph Hanck ◽  
Martin C. Arnold

AbstractJudging by its significant potential to affect the outcome of a game in one single action, the penalty kick is arguably the most important set piece in football. Scientific studies on how the ability to convert a penalty kick is distributed among professional football players are scarce. In this paper, we consider how to rank penalty takers in the German Bundesliga based on historical data from 1963 to 2021. We use Bayesian models that improve inference on ability measures of individual players by imposing structural assumptions on an associated high-dimensional parameter space. These methods prove useful for our application, coping with the inherent difficulty that many players only take few penalties, making purely frequentist inference rather unreliable.

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cihan Oguz ◽  
Teeraphan Laomettachit ◽  
Katherine C Chen ◽  
Layne T Watson ◽  
William T Baumann ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 346 (7) ◽  
pp. 524-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Paillet ◽  
David Néron ◽  
Pierre Ladevèze

2019 ◽  
Vol 201 ◽  
pp. 109724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Astroza ◽  
Nicolás Barrientos ◽  
Yong Li ◽  
Erick I. Saavedra Flores ◽  
Zhenning Liu

2016 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 399-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Costa ◽  
M. Farber

In this paper we introduce and develop the multi-parameter model of random simplicial complexes with randomness present in all dimensions. Various geometric and topological properties of such random simplicial complexes are characterised by convex domains in the high-dimensional parameter space (rather than by intervals, as in the usual one-parameter models). We find conditions under which a multi-parameter random simplicial complex is connected and simply connected. Besides, we give an intrinsic characterisation of the multi-parameter probability measure. We analyse links of simplexes and intersections of multi-parameter random simplicial complexes and show that they are also multi-parameter random simplicial complexes.


2003 ◽  
Vol 13 (09) ◽  
pp. 2681-2688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murilo S. Baptista ◽  
Celso Grebogi ◽  
Ernest Barreto

Periodicity is ubiquitous in nature. In this work, we analyze the dynamical reasons for which periodic windows, that appear in parameter space diagrams, have different shapes and structures. For that, we make use of a dynamical quantity, called spine — the skeleton of the window, in order to explain a conjecture that describes the presence of periodic windows in the parameter space of high-dimensional chaotic systems.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marten Reehorst ◽  
Slava Rychkov ◽  
David Simmons-Duffin ◽  
Benoit Sirois ◽  
Ning Su ◽  
...  

Current numerical conformal bootstrap techniques carve out islands in theory space by repeatedly checking whether points are allowed or excluded. We propose a new method for searching theory space that replaces the binary information "allowed"/"excluded" with a continuous "navigator" function that is negative in the allowed region and positive in the excluded region. Such a navigator function allows one to efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces and smoothly sail towards any islands they may contain. The specific functions we introduce have several attractive features: they are well-defined in large regions of parameter space, can be computed with standard methods, and evaluation of their gradient is immediate due to an SDP gradient formula that we provide. The latter property allows for the use of efficient quasi-Newton optimization methods, which we illustrate by navigating towards the 3d Ising island.


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