Regional management of large herbivore populations is known to be effective in reducing local economic damages and conserving local endemic plants. However, herbivores often move across management areas, and the effect of population management on a large spatial scale is poorly understood, even though it is necessary to use a large-scale approach across multiple management units to implement appropriate management. In this study, to better understand large-scale management and improve management efficiency, we evaluated effects of large-scale management of a sika deer (Cervus nippon) population on Kyushu Island (approximately 36,750 km2) in Japan. We estimated the population dynamics and spatial distributions of the deer and evaluated the effects of harvests, density dependence, and climatic conditions on the population dynamics both across Kyushu Island and in smaller prefectural management units. Fecal pellet count surveys conducted from 1995 to 2019 and results from a vector autoregressive spatio-temporal model showed relatively stable population dynamics and four high-density core areas. No increasing or decreasing trends were observed in the population dynamics, even though harvesting increased annually until it reached about 110,000 in 2014, indicating that harvesting was not related to the population dynamics. In addition, although no effects of density dependence were confirmed, maximum snow depth during winter decreased deer density at the management unit scale. Harvesting represents a major source of mortality in the Kyushu Island population because of the absence of predators. Although, approximately 110,000 sika deer were harvested annually after 2014, it is surprising that the effect of harvesting on population dynamics was not significant. A main cause of no reduction of the population was that the population used to determine the harvest number was underestimated. In addition, it was indicated that multi-management units need to manage the core areas because the high-density core areas were located across a few management units. This study highlights the difficulties involved with wide-area management of large herbivores and points out the importance of accurate stock assessment, reduction of the risk of management failure, and cooperation among management units. Our research is an important contribution to the study of the effects of large-scale harvesting in a large geographic area.
Construction of the Population Dynamics Predictive Model of Sika deer in Hyogo by Petri Nets