Individual variation in dispersal, and its sources, shape the fate of pushed vs. pulled range expansions

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of range expansions are shaped by both dispersal and population growth. Accordingly, density-dependence in either dispersal or growth can determine whether expansions are pulled or pushed, i.e. whether expansion velocities and genetic diversity are mainly driven by recent, low-density edge populations, or by older populations closer to the core. Despite this and despite abundant evidence of dispersal evolution during expansions, the impact of density-dependent dispersal and its evolution on expansion dynamics remains understudied. Here, we used simulation models to examine the influence of individual trait variation in both dispersal capacity and dispersal density-dependence on expansions, and how it impacts the position of expansions on the pulled-pushed continuum. First, we found that knowing about the evolution of density-dependent dispersal at the range edge can greatly improve our ability to predict whether an expansion is (more) pushed or (more) pulled. Second, we found that both dispersal costs and the sources of variation in dispersal (genetic or non-genetic, in dispersal capacity versus in density-dependence) greatly influence how expansion dynamics evolve. Among other scenarios, pushed expansions tended to become more pulled with time only when density-dependence was highly heritable, dispersal costs were low and dispersal capacity could not evolve. When, on the other hand, variation in density-dependence had no genetic basis, but dispersal capacity could evolve, then pushed expansions tended to become more pushed with time, and pulled expansions more pulled. More generally, our results show that trying to predict expansion velocities and dynamics using trait information from non-expanding regions only may be problematic, that both dispersal variation and its sources play a key role in determining whether an expansion is and stays pushed, and that environmental context (here dispersal costs) cannot be neglected. Those simulations suggest new avenues of research to explore, both in terms of theoretical studies and regarding ways to empirically study pushed vs. pulled range expansions.

Using Bayesian state-space models to understand the population dynamics of the dominant malaria vector, Anopheles funestus in rural Tanzania

Background: It is often assumed that the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus, its role in malaria transmission and the way it responds to interventions are similar to the more elaborately characterized An. gambiae. However, An. funestus has several unique ecological features that could generate distinct transmission dynamics and responsiveness to interventions. The objectives of this work were to develop a model which will; 1) reconstruct the population dynamics, survival, and fecundity of wild An. funestus populations in southern Tanzania, 2) quantify impacts of density dependence on the dynamics, and 3) assess seasonal fluctuations in An. funestus demography. Through quantifying the population dynamics of An. funestus, this model will enable analysis of how their stability and response to interventions may different from that of An. gambiae s.l.Methods: A Bayesian State Space Model (SSM) based on mosquito life history was fit to time series data on the abundance of female An. funestus s.s. collected over 2 years in southern Tanzania. Prior values of fitness and demography were incorporated from empirical data on larval development, adult survival and fecundity from laboratory-reared first generation progeny of wild caught An. funestus. The model was structured to allow larval and adult fitness traits to vary seasonally in response to environmental covariates (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and for density dependency in larvae. We measured the effects of density dependence and seasonality through counterfactual examination of model fit with or without these covariates.Results: The model accurately reconstructed the seasonal population dynamics of An. funestus and generated biologically-plausible values of their survival larval, development and fecundity in the wild. This model suggests that An-funestus survival and fecundity annual pattern was highly variable across the year, but did not show consistent seasonal trends either rainfall or temperature. While the model fit was somewhat improved by inclusion of density dependence, this was a relatively minor effect and suggests that this process is not as important for An. funestus as it is for An. gambiae populations.Conclusion: The model's ability to accurately reconstruct the dynamics and demography of An. funestus could potentially be useful in simulating the response of these populations to vector control techniques deployed separately or in combination. The observed and simulated dynamics also suggests that An. funestus could be playing a role in year-round malaria transmission, with any apparent seasonality attributed to other vector species.

Stronger density-dependent growth of Japanese sardine with lower food availability: Comparison of growth and zooplankton biomass between a historical and current stock-increase period in the western North Pacific

Density dependence is a fundamental concept for fish population dynamics. Although density-dependent growth and maturity among older juveniles and adults is important for regulating fish population size and for fisheries management, the mechanism of density dependence for marine fishes remains unclear. Here, we examined changes in Japanese sardine growth with increasing abundance beginning in the 2010s and how the current pattern of density-dependent growth differs from that of a previous stock-increase period from the 1970s to early 1980s. During the current period of increasing abundance, mean standard length has already dropped to the lowest level yet observed and growth has declined more sharply with increased abundance than in the 1970s and 1980s. Mesozooplankton biomass in July in the summer feeding grounds was also lower during the current period. Therefore, our results suggest that summer food availability in the western North Pacific controls the strength of density-dependent growth. A lower carrying capacity for Japanese sardine could account for the stronger density dependence of growth observed in the 2010s; this indicates that future Japanese sardine abundance might not increase as much as in the 1980s unless food availability improves.

Unfounded claims about productivity beyond density for reindeer pastoralism systems

We point out problems with the article Productivity beyond density: A critique of management models for reindeer pastoralism in Norway by Marin and co-workers published in Pastoralism in 2020. In our opinion, there are several misleading claims about the governance of the reindeer pastoralist system in Norway, the Røros model for herd management and density dependence in reindeer herds in their article. We point out the errors in their empirical re-evaluation of previous work on the relationship between reindeer densities and the productivity and slaughter weights in herds. These errors have a significant bearing on their conclusions. We agree that weather variability has a substantial impact on reindeer body mass growth, fecundity and survival, but disagree with Marin et al. when they argue that reindeer densities are of minor importance for reindeer productivity and animal welfare.