Fraternal Birth Order and Extreme Right-Handedness as Predictors of Sexual Orientation and Gender Nonconformity in Men

Several biological mechanisms have been proposed to influence male sexual orientation, but the extent to which these mechanisms cooccur is unclear. Putative markers of biological processes are often used to evaluate the biological basis of male sexual orientation, including fraternal birth order, handedness, and familiality of same-sex sexual orientation; these biomarkers are proxies for immunological, endocrine, and genetic mechanisms. Here, we used latent profile analysis (LPA) to assess whether these biomarkers cluster within the same individuals or are present in different subgroups of nonheterosexual men. LPA defined four profiles of men based on these biomarkers: 1) A subgroup who did not have these biomarkers, 2) fraternal birth order, 3) handedness, and 4) familiality. While the majority of both heterosexual and nonheterosexual men were grouped in the profile that did not have any biomarker, the three profiles associated with a biomarker were composed primarily of nonheterosexual men. We then evaluated whether these subgroups differed on measures of gender nonconformity and personality that reliably show male sexual orientation differences. The subgroup without biomarkers was the most gender-conforming whereas the fraternal birth order subgroup was the most female-typical and agreeable, compared with the other profiles. Together, these findings suggest there are multiple distinct biodevelopmental pathways influencing same-sex sexual orientation in men.

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The Fraternal Birth-Order Effect as Statistical Artefact: Convergent Evidence from Probability Calculus, Simulated Data, and Multiverse Meta- Analysis

10.31234/osf.io/e4j6a ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Johannes K Vilsmeier ◽

Michael Kossmeier ◽

Martin Voracek ◽

Ulrich S. Tran

Keyword(s):

Sexual Orientation ◽

Birth Order ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Order Effect ◽

Probability Calculus ◽

Older Brothers ◽

Birth Order Effect ◽

Fraternal Birth Order ◽

Fraternal Birth Order Effect ◽

Ratio Variables

For a quarter of a century researchers investigating the origins of sexual orientation have largely ascribed to the fraternal birth order effect (FBOE) as a fact, holding that older brothers increase the odds of homosexual orientation among men through an immunoreactivity process. Here, we triangulate the empirical foundations of the FBOE from three distinct, informative perspectives: First, drawing on basic probability calculus, we deduce mathematically that the body of statistical evidence of the FBOE rests on the false assumptions that effects of family size should be controlled for and that this could be achieved through the use of ratio variables. Second, using a data-simulation approach, we demonstrate that by using ratio variables, researchers are bound to falsely declare corroborating evidence of an excess of older brothers at a rate of up to 100%, and that valid approaches attempting to quantify a potential excess of older brothers among homosexual men must control for the confounding effects of the number of older siblings. And third, we re-examine the empirical evidence of the FBOE by using a novel specification-curve and multiverse approach to meta-analysis. This yielded highly inconsistent and moreover similarly-sized effects across 64 male and 17 female samples (N = 2,778,998), compatible with an excess as well as with a lack of older brothers in both groups, thus, suggesting that almost no variation in the number of older brothers in men is attributable to sexual orientation.

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