The role of advanced end-use technologies in long-term climate change mitigation: the interlinkage between primary bioenergy and energy end-use
AbstractThe role of advanced end-use technologies has been investigated in multiple series of scenarios using an integrated assessment model BET-GLUE, which comprises an energy-economic module (BET) and a bioenergy-land-use module (GLUE). The scenarios consider different technology assumptions on the availability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and end-use efficiencies featuring electrification under a wide range of carbon price trajectories, which start at 1–690 USD/tCO2 in 2030, increase at 4.5%/year, and level off in 2100. This scenario design allows close examination of energy, economic, and environmental implications of different levels of policy stringency and carbon budgets. While improving end-use efficiencies consistently decrease policy costs for a wide range of carbon budgets, the value of BECCS availability in terms of cost reduction is crucial only in a limited range toward lower budgets. Constraints on BECCS, including those indirectly imposed by the limited bioenergy supply, also tend to narrow the lower range of attainable budget levels, indicating technological and economic challenges, although they may have an impact on reducing the total budget including land-use emissions. Overall, the advanced end-use efficiency has a significant effect on the required level of policy stringency for a given climate goal, so that it can compensate for the biomass constraints.