Abstract
Purpose Workers’ compensation claims consist of occupational injuries severe enough to meet a compensability threshold. Theoretically, systems with higher thresholds should have fewer claims but greater average severity. For research that relies on claims data, particularly cross-jurisdictional comparisons of compensation systems, this results in collider bias that can lead to spurious associations and confound analyses. In this study, I use real and simulated claims data to demonstrate collider bias and problems with methods used to account for it. Methods Using Australian claims data, I used a linear regression to test the association between claim rate and mean disability durations across Statistical Areas. Analyses were repeated with nesting by state/territory to account for variations in compensability thresholds across compensation systems. Both analyses are repeated on left-censored data. Simulated claims data are analysed with Cox survival analyses to illustrate how left-censoring can reverse effects.Results The claim rate within a Statistical Area was inversely associated with disability duration. However, this reversed when Statistical Areas were nested by state/territory. Left-censoring resulted in an attenuation of the unnested association to non-significance, while the nested association remained significantly positive. Cox regressions on simulated data showed left-censoring can also reverse effects. Conclusions Collider bias can seriously confound work disability research, particularly cross-jurisdictional comparisons. Work disability researchers must grapple with this challenge by using appropriate study designs and analytical approaches, and considering how collider bias affects interpretation of results.
Collider Bias in Administrative Workers’ Compensation Claims Data: A Challenge for Cross-Jurisdictional Research
