Rethinking the Use of Statistical Evidence to Prove Causation in Criminal Cases: A Tale of (Im)Probability and Free Will

2020 ◽

pp. 43-58

Author(s):

Andrew Ligertwood

Keyword(s):

Common Law ◽

Statistical Evidence ◽

Criminal Cases ◽

Forensic Evidence ◽

Standard Of Proof ◽

Reasonable Possibility ◽

The Common ◽

Forensic Scientists ◽

Fact Finding ◽

Science Evidence

The presentation of expert forensic science evidence in rigorous statistical terms raises the question of how lay fact-finders (judges and jurors) might employ such evidence to prove events in issue. Can this simply be left to the common sense of fact-finders or should the law provide further guidance about how they should reason in applying the criminal standard of proof? Should courts demand that witnesses who give statistical evidence express that evidence in a particular form? This article examines the non-mathematical nature of common law fact-finding and its embodiment in the presumption of innocence principle underlying the criminal standard of proof. It argues that forensic scientists present evidence in a form that makes transparent the risks of error so that, in determining satisfaction of the accused’s guilt having regard to all the evidence before it, the fact-finder considers the reasonable possibility of doubts necessarily left open by statistical evidence.

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The Role of Statistical Evidence in Civil Cases

Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application ◽

10.1146/annurev-statistics-031219-041238 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 39-60 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Joseph L. Gastwirth

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Statistical Analysis ◽

Relative Risk ◽

Federal Courts ◽

Statistical Evidence ◽

Criminal Cases ◽

Legal Process ◽

Legal Cases ◽

Civil Cases

Civil cases outnumber criminal cases in federal courts, and statistical evidence has become more important in a wide variety of them. In contrast to science, which is concerned with general phenomena, legal cases concern one plaintiff or a class of plaintiffs and replication of the events that led to the case is not possible. This review describes the legal process, the way statistics are used in several types of cases, and the criteria courts use in evaluating the reliability of statistical testimony. Several examples of courts’ misinterpreting statistical analyses are presented. Commonly occurring issues in the statistical analysis of stratified data, the use of regression analysis, and the use of epidemiologic estimates of relative risk are described. Hopefully, this review will encourage statisticians to engage with the legal system and develop better ways of communicating the results of studies so they receive the evidentiary weight they deserve.

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The Problem with Naked Statistical Evidence

10.1093/oso/9780198859307.003.0023 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 332-346

Author(s):

Christian Dahlman ◽

Amit Pundik

Keyword(s):

Free Will ◽

Statistical Evidence ◽

Moral Problem ◽

New Approaches ◽

Different Characteristics ◽

Lawful Conduct

There has been much debate over the value of naked statistical evidence (NSE). However, while most scholars agree that it is problematic to base a verdict on NSE, they disagree on why it is problematic, pointing to different characteristics of NSE as the root of the problem. In the last decade, the debate has been energized by publications that propose a number of new approaches. This chapter joins the most recent debates on NSE—in particular, the objections to naked statistics based upon sensitivity, normalcy, incentives for lawful conduct, and free will. The authors argue that the problem of NSE is not an epistemic one, as some assume, but is actually a moral problem.

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Sem/X-Ray Applications to the Forensic Science Field

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100091937 ◽

1976 ◽

Vol 34 ◽

pp. 390-391

Author(s):

K. Culbreth

Keyword(s):

Forensic Science ◽

Depth Of Field ◽

Surface Phenomena ◽

Criminal Cases ◽

Forensic Evidence ◽

Science Field ◽

X Ray ◽

Hit And Run ◽

Evaluation Of Evidence ◽

Scanning Electron

The introduction of scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive x-ray analysis to forensic science has provided additional methods by which investigative evidence can be analyzed. The importance of evidence from the scene of a crime or from the personal belongings of a victim and suspect has resulted in the development and evaluation of SEM/x-ray analysis applications to various types of forensic evidence. The intent of this paper is to describe some of these applications and to relate their importance to the investigation of criminal cases.The depth of field and high resolution of the SEM are an asset to the evaluation of evidence with respect to surface phenomena and physical matches (1). Fig. 1 shows a Phillips screw which has been reconstructed after the head and shank were separated during a hit-and-run accident.

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When Mother Earth Rises Up

Social Psychology ◽

10.1027/1864-9335/a000112 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 44 (4) ◽

pp. 271-277 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Simona Sacchi ◽

Paolo Riva ◽

Marco Brambilla

Keyword(s):

Free Will ◽

Natural Disasters ◽

Natural Disaster ◽

Mental States ◽

Disaster Victims ◽

Willingness To Help ◽

Mother Earth

Anthropomorphization is the tendency to ascribe humanlike features and mental states, such as free will and consciousness, to nonhuman beings or inanimate agents. Two studies investigated the consequences of the anthropomorphization of nature on people’s willingness to help victims of natural disasters. Study 1 (N = 96) showed that the humanization of nature correlated negatively with willingness to help natural disaster victims. Study 2 (N = 52) tested for causality, showing that the anthropomorphization of nature reduced participants’ intentions to help the victims. Overall, our findings suggest that humanizing nature undermines the tendency to support victims of natural disasters.

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