The aim of the paper is to propose, and give an example of, a strategy for managing insurance risk in continuous time to protect a portfolio of non-life insurance contracts against unwelcome surplus fluctuations. The strategy combines the characteristics of the ruin probability and the values VaR and CVaR. It also proposes an approach for reducing the required initial reserves by means of capital injections when the surplus is tending towards negative values, which, if used, would protect a portfolio of insurance contracts against unwelcome fluctuations of that surplus. The proposed approach enables the insurer to analyse the surplus by developing a number of scenarios for the progress of the surplus for a given reinsurance protection over a particular time period. It allows one to observe the differences in the reduction of risk obtained with different types of reinsurance chains. In addition, one can compare the differences with the results obtained, using optimally chosen parameters for each type of proportional reinsurance making up the reinsurance chain.
Estimating Ruin Probability in an Insurance Risk Model with Stochastic Premium Income Based on the CFS Method
