Time-series forecasting and analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in highly populated countries- A data-driven approach

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.

Time-Series Forecasting and Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Highly Populated Countries

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.

Ancients Ruins of Mahabharata Prominence Hastinapur Giving Vindication of Bioarchaeology

Hastinapur, capital of the Kuru Kingdom in the era of Mahabharata. Some ancient structures imply the name of Mahabharata personages such as Karna Ghat Mandir, Draupadi Ghat Mandir, Pandeshwar Mahadev Mandir, Pandv Tila, or Ulta Khera Mound, etc. In the year 1950-52 some portion of Ulta Khera and Mound of Raghunathji was excavated by B.B. Lal. He found 5 culture strata starting from Pre 1200 B.C. to the early 15th Century A.D and the first time he brings in limelight a new ceramic industry Painted Grey Ware. The recovery of somehow Kushan Period bones(?,for exact time period, the Archaeological Survey of India should remove all these evidences from the site and go through carbon dating.) from near site HST 2 connects this mound with Bio-archaeology. Keywords: Hastinapur, Ulta Khera Mound, Mahabharata, Bioarchaeology

The role of communication in the restaurant crowdfunding’s success

PurposeIn recent years, crowdfunding is assuming an increasingly central role in the development of business projects as an alternative financing tool to traditional sources. This study analyses the role of communication in the success of crowdfunding campaigns in the restaurant sector in the European context.Design/methodology/approachThis study conducts a regression analysis on a sample of 442 European restaurant crowdfunding projects launched on the Kickstarter platform in a time period spanning from 2014 to 2021. More specifically, this study uses a logistic regression model to test the impact of communication on the success of restaurant crowdfunding projects.FindingsEmpirical results suggest a strong impact of communication, declined in its different forms, on the success of restaurant crowdfunding campaigns. More specifically, they highlight a positive impact of the number of images, number of videos, readability and community orientation of the project description, number of comments and number of updates on the success of restaurant crowdfunding projects.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first research that examines the effect of the communication on the success of restaurant crowdfunding projects conducted in the European context.

PR as a Tool of Political Technologies (on the Example of the 2020 Parliamentary Elections in Kyrgyzstan)

The main task of elections in a democratic state is not only to elect representatives of power, but also to ensure the legitimacy of newly elected persons and the political system as a whole. Today, elections are one of the most democratic ways for voters to freely express their opinion in matters of appointing the heads of legislative and executive bodies of power. Consequently, the most important and indispensable condition for a democratic system is free elections. Elections are designed to perform functions such as electing a new political elite, resolving conflicts, reflecting the interests and opinions of various peoples, social strata and groups of society, mobilizing the population to support party programs and social values, etc. PR-technologies occupy a special place in election campaigns. In this regard, the article examines PR-technologies used by parties in the 2020 parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan. The study covers the time period from September 4 to October 3, 2020. As part of the study, a linguistic analysis of information posted on the official websites and social pages of parties, media reports and reports of relevant organizations was carried out. Based on the results of the study, a number of practical recommendations have been developed that must be taken into account during the next parliamentary and presidential elections.

COPULA FRANK UNTUK PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK PORTOFOLIO BIVARIAT PADA MODEL EXPONENTIAL GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY

Stocks are one type of investment that promises return for investors but often carries a high risk. Value at Risk (VaR) is a measuring tool that can calculate the amount of the worst loss that occurs in a stock portfolio with a certain level of confidence and within a certain time period. In general, financial data have a high volatility value, which causes the residuals are not normally distributed. ARCH/GARCH modoel is used to solve the heteroscedasticity problem. If the data also have an asymmetric effect, it is modelled with Exponential GARCH model. Copula-Frank is part of the Archimedian copula which is used to solve empirical cases. The data on this study were BBCA and KLBF stock price return data in the observation period 30 December 2011 – 6 December 2019. Furthermore, to test the validity of the VaR model, a backtesting test will be carried out using the Kupiec Test. The results showed that the best model used for BBCA stocks was ARIMA (1,0,1) EGARCH (1,1) and for KLBF stocks was ARIMA (1,0,1) EGARCH (1,2). The amount of risk with a 95% confidence level used a combination of the EGARCH and Copula-Frank models was 2.233% of today's investment. Based on the backtesting test used the Kupiec Test, the VaR model of the portfolio obtained was declared valid.

Public Perceptions of Local Parks and Recreation as an Essential Community Service During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Local residents are the primary stakeholder for municipal parks and recreation who have the potential to influence funding and policy through their participation, voting, and advocacy. Research has suggested that individuals are more likely to support parks and recreation and view them as essential when they perceive they provide benefits that address their own as well as broader community needs. This panel study investigated Pennsylvania residents and the extent they considered parks and recreation an essential community service during the COVID-19 pandemic. It further assessed the rationale for why parks and recreation were considered either essential or non-essential during this time period. A majority of respondents (54%) felt local parks and recreation were an essential service in their community during the pandemic based primarily on their perceived contributions to physical health, mental health and wellbeing, and the safe provision of recreation opportunities. Conversely, parks and recreation were considered non-essential when they had been closed, when individuals were unsure of what services were actually provided during the pandemic, or they were perceived as unsafe or unsanitary given the presence of COVID-19. Findings provide evidence of the contributions provided by local parks and recreation during the COVID-19 pandemic and suggest influenceable factors associated with perceptions of whether parks and recreation are an essential community service.

Profile of Patients Availing Marital and Psychosexual Clinic Services During the Pre-COVID and COVID Era: A Study From a Tertiary Care Center

Aim: To assess the profile of patients availing the marital and psychosexual clinic (MPC) services through the telemode at a tertiary care center after the imposition of lockdown and compare the same with the profile of the patients attending the outpatient services, in-person MPC services during the prelockdown period. Materials and Methods: It was a retrospective study in which comparisons were made between patients availing the MPC services from March 24, 2020 to March 23, 2021 with the profile of patients during the period of March 24, 2019 to March 23, 2020 (ie, COVID period—lockdown). Results: A total of 112 patients availed the MPC services during the COVID study period compared to 307 patients in the pre-COVID period. However, when the proportion of MPC cases among the total walk-ins was compared, during the COVID period the proportion of MPC cases increased by almost 1.75 times. During the COVID time period, there was an increase in the patients who were significantly younger ( P = .002), females ( P = .003), more from urban locality ( P = .035), and being referred by self or caregiver ( P = .001). In terms of specific diagnosis, as compared to the pre-COVID timeframe, significantly higher numbers of patients were diagnosed with premature ejaculation (PME) and PME + erectile dysfunction while the services were being provided through the telemode. Conclusion: The present study suggests an increase in the proportion of patients seeking help for marital and sexual issues while the services are being provided by telemode.

Dengue Fever in Italy: The “Eternal Return” of an Emerging Arboviral Disease

Enhanced surveillance for dengue virus (DENV) infections in Italy has been implemented since 2012, with annual reports from the National Health Institute. In this study, we summarize available evidence on the epidemiology of officially notified DENV infections from 2010–2021. In total, 1043 DENV infection cases were diagnosed, and most of them occurred in travelers, with only 11 autochthonous cases. The annual incidence rates of DENV infections peaked during 2019 with 0.277 cases per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.187–0.267), (age-adjusted incidence rate: 0.328, 95% CI 0.314–0.314). Cases of DENV were clustered during the summer months of July (11.4%), August (19.3%), and September (12.7%). The areas characterized by higher notification rates were north-western (29.0%), and mostly north-eastern Italy (41.3%). The risk for DENV infection in travelers increased in the time period 2015–2019 (risk ratio [RR] 1.808, 95% CI 1.594–2.051) and even during 2020–2021 (RR 1.771, 95% CI 1.238–2.543). Higher risk for DENV was additionally reported in male subjects compared with females subjects, and aged 25 to 44 years, and in individuals from northern and central Italy compared to southern regions and islands. In a multivariable Poisson regression model, the increased number of travelers per 100 inhabitants (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.065, 95% CI 1.036–1.096), the incidence in other countries (IRR 1.323, 95% CI 1.165–1.481), the share of individuals aged 25 to 44 years (IRR 1.622, 95% CI 1.338–1.968), and foreign-born residents (IRR 2.717, 95% CI 1.555–3.881), were identified as effectors of annual incidence. In summary, although the circulation of DENV remains clustered among travelers, enhanced surveillance is vital for the early detection of human cases and the prompt implementation of response measures.