scholarly journals Tsunami hazard assessment in the Makran subduction zone

2020 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
pp. 861-875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Rashidi ◽  
Zaher Hossein Shomali ◽  
Denys Dutykh ◽  
Nasser Keshavarz Farajkhah
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 5191-5208 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hoechner ◽  
A. Y. Babeyko ◽  
N. Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude–frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1339-1350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Hoechner ◽  
Andrey Y. Babeyko ◽  
Natalia Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

scholarly journals Tsunami Hazard assessment and Scenarios Database for the Tsunami Warning System for the coast of Oman

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga ◽  
José A. Álvarez-Gómez ◽  
Mauricio González ◽  
Jara Martínez Sánchez ◽  
Laura M. Parro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Tsunami Warning System ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Scenario Database

Abstract. Advances in the understanding of tsunami impacts allow developing products to assess its consequences in tsunami-prone areas, as it is the case of the coast of the Sultanate of Oman. This paper presents the followed methodology and the obtained results for the assessment of the tsunami hazard of the coast of Oman and the development of the scenario database that feeds its Tsunami Warning System (TWS). Initially, a seismo-tectonic analysis of the area was carried out, focused on identifying the seismic areas whose earthquakes could generate tsunamis affecting the coast of Oman. A database of 3181 tsunamigenic sources was characterized by means of the parameters that define their focal mechanisms. This database includes scenarios with magnitudes Mw ranging from 6.5 to 9.25 within the study area, but it is especially focused on the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). The 3181 cases were numerically propagated to feed the database and to work as precomputed scenarios for the TWS: In case of tsunami, the results for the closest precomputed scenario (in location and magnitude) are shown. From the database, 7 worst-case scenarios were selected and computationally simulated at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, resulting in tsunami hazard maps containing relevant variables in the flooded area, such as the inundation water depth and the drag level (hazard degree for people instability). Finally, in order to manage conveniently the results, an online tool, called Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment System (MHRAS), was developed. This tool is a viewer that contains an easy-to-use application, including the results of the tsunami hazard assessment and the tsunami scenario database, and the selection algorithm to choose the proper case among the precomputed ones. The results of this research are part of the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System of Oman (NMHEWS).

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND DAMAGE ESTIMATION OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT: APPLICATION TO THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE AND SEASIDE, OREGON

2018 ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daniel T. Cox ◽  
Hyoungsu Park ◽  
Mohammed S. Alam ◽  
Andre R. Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Cascadia Subduction Zone ◽  
Damage Estimation ◽  
Tsunami Hazards ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Risk-based damage estimation to the built environment from future tsunamis is fundamental for developing mitigation and evacuation plans. One of the challenging problems in the evaluation of damage from future tsunamis is that the uncertainty from the nature of tsunami itself (e.g. Magnitude, Epicenter, Fault slip distributions) and the lack of accumulated sufficient observed data for probabilistic studies due to the relatively small frequency of tsunami historical events. Even though tsunami modeling has matured over the past several decades and provides reliable estimation of tsunami hazards such as flow depth, velocity, arrival time, etc., questions remain on how to predict future tsunami hazards and how to estimate tsunami damage, especially for the engineers who want to design shelter-in-plate options or coastal planners who want to estimate the possible damage from future tsunami events on the built environment at community and regional scales. As a case study, we evaluate the probabilistic damage states of an urban coastal city, Seaside, Oregon from future tsunamis generated on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). The methodology and the results are separated into two parts: (1) Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (Park et al., 2017) and (2) Probabilistic building damage assessment from the tsunamis hazards with a community scale.

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