Using the paleotsunami data for the tsunami hazard assessment

The article is focused on the development of statistical methods of the tsunami recurrence evaluation using paleotsunami data. The new key moment is the creation of a model to quantify the preservation potential of paleotsunami deposits. The article includes a brief overview of the results of studies of the variability and preservation of tsunami deposits. The model was tested on materials about paleotsunami on the coast in the Khalaktyrka area (a village within the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky), obtained earlier, for four time intervals set by the key-marker volcanic tephra layers in Kamchatka (Ksudach in 1907, Avachinsky in 1855 and 1779, Opala in 606). The maximum likelihood estimates of the number of tsunamigenic horizons for the indicated time intervals are given. The restrictions of the considered model are analyzed.

Paleotsunamis on the Southern Hikurangi Subduction Zone, New Zealand, Show Regular Recurrence of Large Subduction Earthquakes

Geological records of subduction earthquakes, essential for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, are difficult to obtain at transitional plate boundaries, because upper-plate fault earthquake deformation can mask the subduction zone signal. Here, we examine unusual shell layers within a paleolagoon at Lake Grassmere, at the transition zone between the Hikurangi subduction zone and the Marlborough fault system. Based on biostratigraphic and sedimentological analyses, we interpret the shell layers as tsunami deposits. These are dated at 2145–1837 and 1505–1283 yr B.P., and the most likely source of these tsunamis was ruptures of the southern Hikurangi subduction interface. Identification of these two large earthquakes brings the total record of southern Hikurangi subduction earthquakes to four in the past 2000 yr. For the first time, it is possible to obtain a geologically constrained recurrence interval for the southern Hikurangi subduction zone. We calculate a recurrence interval of 500 yr (335–655 yr, 95% confidence interval) and a coefficient of variation of 0.27 (0.0–0.47, 95% confidence interval). The probability of a large subduction earthquake on the southern Hikurangi subduction zone is 26% within the next 50 yr. We find no consistent temporal relationship between subduction earthquakes and large earthquakes on upper-plate faults.

Multilayer-HySEA model validation for landslide-generated tsunamis – Part 1: Rigid slides

This paper is devoted to benchmarking the Multilayer-HySEA model using laboratory experimental data for landslide-generated tsunamis. This article deals with rigid slides, and the second part, in a companion paper, addresses granular slides. The US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) has proposed the experimental data used and established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston (Texas). The first three benchmark problems proposed in this workshop deal with rigid slides. Rigid slides must be simulated as a moving bottom topography, and, therefore, they must be modeled as a prescribed boundary condition. These three benchmarks are used here to validate the Multilayer-HySEA model. This new HySEA model consists of an efficient hybrid finite-volume–finite-difference implementation on GPU architectures of a non-hydrostatic multilayer model. A brief description of model equations, dispersive properties, and the numerical scheme is included. The benchmarks are described and the numerical results compared against the lab-measured data for each of them. The specific aim is to validate this new code for tsunamis generated by rigid slides. Nevertheless, the overall objective of the current benchmarking effort is to produce a ready-to-use numerical tool for real-world landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. This tool has already been used to reproduce the Port Valdez, Alaska, 1964 and Stromboli, Italy, 2002 events.