tsunami hazard
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2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haekal Azief Haridhi ◽  
Bor-Shouh Huang ◽  
Kuo-Liang Wen ◽  
Arif Mirza ◽  
Syamsul Rizal ◽  
...  

Abstract. Near the northern border of Sumatra, the right-lateral strike-slip Sumatran Fault Zone splits into two branches and extends into the offshore, as revealed by seismic sounding surveys. However, due to its strike-slip faulting characteristics, the Sumatran Fault Zone’s activity is rarely believed to cause tsunami hazards in this region. According to two reprocessed reflection seismic profiles, the extended Sumatran Fault Zone is strongly associated with chaotic facies, indicating that large submarine landslides have been triggered. Coastal steep slopes and new subsurface characteristics of submarine landslide deposits were mapped using recently acquired high-resolution shallow bathymetry data. Slope stability analysis revealed some targets with steep morphology to be close to failure. In an extreme case, an earthquake of Mw 7 or more occurred, and the strong ground shaking triggered a submarine landslide off the northern shore of Sumatra. Based on a simulation of tsunami wave propagation in shallow water, the results of this study indicate a potential tsunami hazard from a submarine landslide triggered by the strike-slip fault system. The landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this study area can be improved on the basis of this proposed scenario.


2022 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 102152
Author(s):  
Abdul Kadir Alhamid ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Akiyama ◽  
Hiroki Ishibashi ◽  
Koki Aoki ◽  
Shunichi Koshimura ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 3789-3807
Author(s):  
Dimitra M. Salmanidou ◽  
Joakim Beck ◽  
Peter Pazak ◽  
Serge Guillas

Abstract. The potential of a full-margin rupture along the Cascadia subduction zone poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. Previous probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment studies produced hazard curves based on simulated predictions of tsunami waves, either at low resolution or at high resolution for a local area or under limited ranges of scenarios or at a high computational cost to generate hundreds of scenarios at high resolution. We use the graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated tsunami simulator VOLNA-OP2 with a detailed representation of topographic and bathymetric features. We replace the simulator by a Gaussian process emulator at each output location to overcome the large computational burden. The emulators are statistical approximations of the simulator's behaviour. We train the emulators on a set of input–output pairs and use them to generate approximate output values over a six-dimensional scenario parameter space, e.g. uplift/subsidence ratio and maximum uplift, that represent the seabed deformation. We implement an advanced sequential design algorithm for the optimal selection of only 60 simulations. The low cost of emulation provides for additional flexibility in the shape of the deformation, which we illustrate here considering two families – buried rupture and splay-faulting – of 2000 potential scenarios. This approach allows for the first emulation-accelerated computation of probabilistic tsunami hazard in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviane Souty ◽  
Audrey Gailler

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is a fundamental framework for producing time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast, taking into account local to distant tsunamigenic earthquake sources. If high resolution bathymetry and topography data at the shoreline are available, local tsunami inundation models can be computed to identify the highest risk areas and derive evidence-based evacuation plans to improve community safety. We propose a fast high-resolution Seismic-PTHA approach to estimate the tsunami hazard at a coastal level using the Bay of Cannes as test site. The S-PTHA process is firstly fastened by performing seismic and tsunami hazards separately to allow for quick updates, either from seismic rates by adding new earthquakes, or from tsunami hazard by adding new scenarios of tsunamis. Furthermore, significant tsunamis are selected on the basis of the extrapolation of a tsunami amplitude collected offshore from low-resolution simulations to an a priori amplitude nearshore using Green’s law. This allows a saving in computation time on high-resolution simulations of almost 85%. The S-PTHA performed in the Bay of Cannes exhibits maximum expected tsunami waves that do not exceed 1 m in a 2500-year period, except in some particular places such as the Old Port of Cannes. However, the probability to experience wave heights of 30 cm in this same period exceeds 50% along the main beach of Cannes and these results need to be considered in risk mitigation plans given the high touristic attraction of the area, especially in summer times.


2021 ◽  
Vol 930 (1) ◽  
pp. 012094
Author(s):  
E P Anindia ◽  
E Hidayah ◽  
R U A Wiyono

Abstract Puger sub-district is categorized as a tsunami-prone area because of its location in the South Coast, directly facing the Indian Ocean, which is the meeting point for two active tectonic plates. The active plate zone is prone to causing earthquakes that raise tsunamis. This article will describe the tsunami hazard and vulnerability level in Puger sub-district using the Geographic Information System (GIS) application. The method in this study uses a weighted overlay method. The weighting method is carried out to determine the level of tsunami hazard and vulnerability by following the weighting criteria in previous studies. Physical vulnerability criteria include land elevation, slope, beach type, land use, coastline distance, and rivers. The tsunami hazard level is determined based on the tsunami run-up map from previous studies. Based on the results of the risk mapping, it was found that there were five risk categories in Puger sub-district, namely the very low level (13.90 Ha), low level (271.99 Ha), medium level (7133.25 Ha), high level (644.22 Ha), and very high level (23.29 Ha).


2021 ◽  
Vol 97 (12) ◽  
pp. 1545-1550
Author(s):  
Asem Salama ◽  
Mohamed El Gabry ◽  
Moussa ◽  
Hesham Hussein ◽  
I. F. Abu El-Nader

2021 ◽  
Vol 946 (1) ◽  
pp. 012021
Author(s):  
V M Kaistrenko

Abstract The article is focused on the development of statistical methods of the tsunami recurrence evaluation using paleotsunami data. The new key moment is the creation of a model to quantify the preservation potential of paleotsunami deposits. The article includes a brief overview of the results of studies of the variability and preservation of tsunami deposits. The model was tested on materials about paleotsunami on the coast in the Khalaktyrka area (a village within the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky), obtained earlier, for four time intervals set by the key-marker volcanic tephra layers in Kamchatka (Ksudach in 1907, Avachinsky in 1855 and 1779, Opala in 606). The maximum likelihood estimates of the number of tsunamigenic horizons for the indicated time intervals are given. The restrictions of the considered model are analyzed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Felix ◽  
Judith Hubbard ◽  
Kyle Bradley ◽  
Karen Lythgoe ◽  
Linlin Li ◽  
...  

Abstract. The tsunami hazard posed by the Flores backarc thrust, which runs along the northern coast of the islands of Bali and Lombok, Indonesia, is poorly studied compared to the Sunda megathrust, situated ~250 km to the south of the islands. However, the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence demonstrated the seismic potential of the western Flores Thrust when a fault ramp beneath the island of Lombok ruptured in two Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Although the uplift in these events mostly occurred below land, the sequence still generated 1–2.5 m-high local tsunamis along the northern coast of Lombok (Wibowo et al., 2021). Historical records show that the Flores fault system in the Lombok and Bali region has generated at least six ≥ Ms 6.5 tsunamigenic earthquakes since 1800 CE. Hence, it is important to assess the possible tsunami hazard represented by this fault system. Here, we focus on the submarine fault segment located between the islands of Lombok and Bali (below the Lombok Strait). We assess modeled tsunami patterns generated by fault slip in six earthquake scenarios (slip of 1–5 m, representing Mw 7.2–7.9+), with a focus on impacts on the capital cities of Mataram, Lombok and Denpasar, Bali, which lie on the coasts facing the strait. We use a geologically constrained earthquake model informed by the Lombok earthquake sequence (Lythgoe et al., 2021), together with a high-resolution bathymetry dataset developed by combining direct measurements from GEBCO with sounding measurements from the official nautical charts for Indonesia. Our results show that fault rupture in this region could trigger a tsunami reaching Mataram in < 8 minutes and Denpasar in ~10–15 minutes, with multiple waves. For an earthquake with 3–5 m of coseismic slip, Mataram and Denpasar experience maximum wave heights of ~1.3–3.3 m and ~0.7 to 1.5 m, respectively. Furthermore, our earthquake models indicate that both cities would experience coseismic subsidence of 20–40 cm, exacerbating their exposure to both the tsunami and other coastal hazards. Overall, Mataram city is more exposed than Denpasar to high tsunami waves arriving quickly from the fault source. To understand how a tsunami would affect Mataram, we model the associated inundation using the 5 m slip model and show that Mataram is inundated ~55–140 m inland along the northern coast and ~230 m along the southern coast, with maximum flow depths of ~2–3 m. Our study highlights that the early tsunami arrival in Mataram, Lombok gives little time for residents to evacuate. Raising their awareness about the potential for locally generated tsunamis and the need for evacuation plans is important to help them respond immediately after experiencing strong ground shaking.


Author(s):  
Jiashen Guan ◽  
Chao An

Potential tsunamis in the western Pacific Ocean pose great threats to the Chinese coastal areas. Among all possible tsunami source regions, the Manila subduction zone draws the most attention and there have been many research works on the tsunami hazards in the South China Sea. In this study, we evaluate the tsunami hazard along the Chinese coast by investigating more potential sources, including the subduction zones of Manila, Ryukyu, Nankai, Izu–Bonin and Mariana. Two tsunami scenarios are considered for each subduction zone, a worst scenario of earthquake magnitude 9.0 and a scenario of largest earthquake magnitude known in history in this zone. Earthquake source parameters are calculated using scaling relations that have been shown to be suitable for tsunami generation. Our results show that for the Chinese coast, tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones are severe in the worst scenarios, and tsunami hazards from the Nankai, Izu–Bonin and Mariana subduction zones are mild. Using the largest earthquake magnitude in history, tsunami hazards from all the investigated subduction zones are almost negligible. Through a sensitivity test on earthquake magnitude, we find that earthquakes of magnitude of 8.5 or larger in the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones cause severe tsunami hazard along the Chinese coast with wave amplitude over 2 m.


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