scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND DAMAGE ESTIMATION OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT: APPLICATION TO THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE AND SEASIDE, OREGON

2018 ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daniel T. Cox ◽  
Hyoungsu Park ◽  
Mohammed S. Alam ◽  
Andre R. Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Cascadia Subduction Zone ◽  
Damage Estimation ◽  
Tsunami Hazards ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Risk-based damage estimation to the built environment from future tsunamis is fundamental for developing mitigation and evacuation plans. One of the challenging problems in the evaluation of damage from future tsunamis is that the uncertainty from the nature of tsunami itself (e.g. Magnitude, Epicenter, Fault slip distributions) and the lack of accumulated sufficient observed data for probabilistic studies due to the relatively small frequency of tsunami historical events. Even though tsunami modeling has matured over the past several decades and provides reliable estimation of tsunami hazards such as flow depth, velocity, arrival time, etc., questions remain on how to predict future tsunami hazards and how to estimate tsunami damage, especially for the engineers who want to design shelter-in-plate options or coastal planners who want to estimate the possible damage from future tsunami events on the built environment at community and regional scales. As a case study, we evaluate the probabilistic damage states of an urban coastal city, Seaside, Oregon from future tsunamis generated on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). The methodology and the results are separated into two parts: (1) Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (Park et al., 2017) and (2) Probabilistic building damage assessment from the tsunamis hazards with a community scale.

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 5191-5208 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hoechner ◽  
A. Y. Babeyko ◽  
N. Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude–frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1339-1350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Hoechner ◽  
Andrey Y. Babeyko ◽  
Natalia Zamora
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 173 (12) ◽  
pp. 3671-3692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall J. LeVeque ◽  
Knut Waagan ◽  
Frank I. González ◽  
Donsub Rim ◽  
Guang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Regional tsunami hazard maps for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation built in the framework of the PTHA methodology

2019 ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Вячеслав Константинович Гусяков ◽  
Владимир Андреевич Кихтенко ◽  
Леонид Борисович Чубаров ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Far East ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
The Far East ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

В работе идет речь о реализации методики вероятностного цунамирайонирования побережья, известной под названием PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment), для создания обзорных карт цунамиопасности дальневосточного побережья России. Обсуждаются методологические основы такого подхода, проблемы построения сейсмотектонических моделей основных цунамигенных зон, численные методики получения расчетных каталогов высот волн на побережье. Приведены примеры обзорных карт для различных повторяемостей, построенных с применением методики PTHA и представленных с помощью созданного веб-приложения WTMap. Упоминаются также некоторые проблемы применения методики PTHA, связанные как с недостаточностью данных наблюдений, так и со сложностью выполнения большого объема сценарного численного моделирования. The article describes the results of the implementation of the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment) methodology for creating the overview maps of tsunami hazard for the Far East coast of the Russian Federation. Such maps show the characteristics of the catastrophic impact of tsunami waves on the coast and the probability of their exceeding in a given period of time. The methodological basis of the PTHA approach to the assessment of tsunami hazard, the problems of constructing seismotectonic models of the main tsunamigenic zones, mathematical models and algorithms for calculating probability estimates of tsunami danger are discussed. The version of the PTHA methodology outlined in the article is implemented as a “WTmap” Web-application that has an access to the entire observational information related to coastal tsunami zoning and software packages used. The application allows to obtain the estimates of the expected tsunami heights and their recurrence estimates and to map them on specific parts of the Far Eastern coast of the Russian Federation. The obtained estimates can be quickly recalculated when replacing the observational catalogs with more complete and reliable ones, with the addition of new, previously absent events or the revision of their parameters, as well as the results of new scenario calculations. Examples of overview maps for various recurrence intervals, constructed using the PTHA methodology and presented using the “WTMap” application, are given. Some problems of using the PTHA methodology related to the lack of available observational data and to the complexity of performing a large amount of scenario simulations are also discussed.

scholarly journals A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3105-3122 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Horspool ◽  
I. Pranantyo ◽  
J. Griffin ◽  
H. Latief ◽  
D. H. Natawidjaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Sunda Arc ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

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