Abstract. A detailed nonlinear time series analysis of the hourly data of the geomagnetic horizontal intensity H measured at Kodaikanal (10.2° N; 77.5° E; mag: dip 3.5° N) has been carried out to investigate the dynamical behaviour of the fluctuations of H. The recurrence plots, spatiotemporal entropy and the result of the surrogate data test show the deterministic nature of the fluctuations, rejecting the hypothesis that H belong to the family of linear stochastic signals. The low dimensional character of the dynamics is evident from the estimated value of the correlation dimension and the fraction of false neighbours calculated for various embedding dimensions. The exponential decay of the power spectrum and the positive Lyapunov exponent indicate chaotic behaviour of the underlying dynamics of H. This is also supported by the results of the comparison of the chaotic characteristics of the time series of H with the pseudo-chaotic characteristics of coloured noise time series. We have also shown that the error involved in the short-term prediction of successive values of H, using a simple but robust, zero-order nonlinear prediction method, increases exponentially. It has also been suggested that there exists the possibility of characterizing the geomagnetic fluctuations in terms of the invariants in chaos theory, such as Lyapunov exponents and correlation dimension. The results of the analysis could also have implications in the development of a suitable model for the daily fluctuations of geomagnetic horizontal intensity.Key words. Geomagnetism and paleomagnetism (time variations, diurnal to secular) – History of geophysics (solar-planetary relationships) Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms)
Research of Deformation Prediction Method on Large-sized Structure Component Based on Time Series Analysis
