An Extreme Learning Machine Based Adaptive VISMA for Stability Enhancement of Renewable Rich Power Systems

Maintaining power system stability in renewable-rich power systems can be a challenging task. Generally, the renewable-rich power systems suffer from low and no inertia due to the integration of power electronics devices in renewable-based power plants. Power system oscillatory stability can also be affected due to the low and no inertia. To overcome this problem, additional devices that can emulate inertia without adding synchronous machines can be used. These devices are referred to as virtual synchronous machines (VISMA). In this paper, the enhancement of oscillatory stability of a realistic representative power system using VISMA is proposed. A battery energy storage system (BESS) is used as the VISMA by adding an additional controller to emulate the inertia. The VISMA is designed by using Fruit Fly Optimization. Moreover, to handle the uncertainty of renewable-based power plants, the VISMA parameters are designed to be adaptive using the extreme learning machine method. Java Indonesian Power Grid has been used as the test system to investigate the efficacy of the proposed method against the conventional POD method and VISMA tuning using other methods. The simulation results show that the proposed method can enhance the oscillatory stability of the power system under various operating conditions.

Research on prediction of China’s financial systematic risk based on the hybrid model

An important feature of the outbreak of systemic financial risk is that the linkage and contagion of risk amongst the various sub-markets of the financial system have increased significantly. In addition, research on the prediction of systemic financial risk plays a significant role in the sustainable development of the financial market. Therefore, this paper takes China’s financial market as its research object, considers the risks co-activity among major financial sub-markets, and constructs a financial composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS) for China, describing its financial systemic stress based on 12 basic indicators selected from the money market, bond market, stock market, and foreign exchange market. Furthermore, drawing on the decomposition and integration technology in the [email protected] complex system research methodology, this paper introduces advanced variational mode decomposition (VMD) technology and extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithms, constructing the VMD-DE-ELM hybrid model to predict the systemic risk of China’s financial market. According to e RMSE , e MAE , and e MAPE , the prediction model’s multistep-ahead forecasting effect is evaluated. The empirical results show that the China’s financial CISS constructed in this paper can effectively identify all kinds of risk events in the sample range. The results of a robustness test show that the overall trend of China’s financial CISS and its ability to identify risk events are not affected by parameter selection and have good robustness. In addition, compared with the benchmark model, the VMD-DE-ELM hybrid model constructed in this paper shows superior predictive ability for systemic financial risk.