Echo state network model for analyzing solar-wind effects on the AU and AL indices

The properties of the auroral electrojets are examined on the basis of a trained machine-learning model. The relationships between solar-wind parameters and the AU and AL indices are modeled with an echo state network (ESN), a kind of recurrent neural network. We can consider this trained ESN model to represent nonlinear effects of the solar-wind inputs on the auroral electrojets. To identify the properties of auroral electrojets, we obtain various synthetic AU and AL data by using various artificial inputs with the trained ESN. The analyses of various synthetic data show that the AU and AL indices are mainly controlled by the solar-wind speed in addition to Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) as suggested by the literature. The results also indicate that the solar-wind density effect is emphasized when solar-wind speed is high and when IMF Bz is near zero. This suggests some nonlinear effects of the solar-wind density.

Types of pulsating aurora: comparison of model and EISCAT electron density observations

Energetic particle precipitation associated with pulsating aurora (PsA) can reach down to lower mesospheric altitudes and deplete ozone. It is well documented that pulsating aurora is a common phenomenon during substorm recovery phases. This indicates that using magnetic indices to model the chemistry induced by PsA electrons could underestimate the energy deposition in the atmosphere. Integrating satellite measurements of precipitating electrons in models is considered to be an alternative way to account for such an underestimation. One way to do this is to test and validate the existing ion chemistry models using integrated measurements from satellite and ground-based observations. By using satellite measurements, an average or typical spectrum of PsA electrons can be constructed and used as an input in models to study the effects of the energetic electrons in the atmosphere. In this study, we compare electron densities from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter scientific radar system) radars with auroral ion chemistry and the energetics model by using pulsating aurora spectra derived from the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) as an energy input for the model. We found a good agreement between the model and EISCAT electron densities in the region dominated by patchy pulsating aurora. However, the magnitude of the observed electron densities suggests a significant difference in the flux of precipitating electrons for different pulsating aurora types (structures) observed.

Modelling the influence of meteoric smoke particles on artificial heating in the D-region

We investigate if the presence of meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) influences the electron temperature during artificial heating in the D-region. By transferring the energy of powerful high-frequency radio waves into thermal energy of electrons, artificial heating increases the electron temperature. Artificial heating depends on the height variation of electron density. The presence of MSPs can influence the electron density through charging of MSPs by electrons, which can reduce the number of free electrons and even result in height regions with strongly reduced electron density, so-called electron bite-outs. We simulate the influence of the artificial heating by calculating the intensity of the upward-propagating radio wave. The electron temperature at each height is derived from the balance of radio wave absorption and cooling through elastic and inelastic collisions with neutral species. The influence of MSPs is investigated by including results from a one-dimensional height-dependent ionospheric model that includes electrons, positively and negatively charged ions, neutral MSPs, singly positively and singly negatively charged MSPs, and photochemistry such as photoionization and photodetachment. We apply typical ionospheric conditions and find that MSPs can influence both the magnitude and the height profile of the heated electron temperature above 80 km; however, this depends on ionospheric conditions. During night, the presence of MSPs leads to more efficient heating and thus a higher electron temperature above altitudes of 80 km. We found differences of up to 1000 K in electron temperature for calculations with and without MSPs. When MSPs are present, the heated electron temperature decreases more slowly. The presence of MSPs does not much affect the heating below 80 km for night conditions. For day conditions, the difference between the heated electron temperature with MSPs and without MSPs is less than 25 K. We also investigate model runs using MSP number density profiles for autumn, summer and winter. The night-time electron temperature is expected to be 280 K hotter in autumn than during winter conditions, while the sunlit D-region is 8 K cooler for autumn MSP conditions than for the summer case, depending on altitude. Finally, an investigation of the electron attachment efficiency to MSPs shows a significant impact on the amount of chargeable dust and consequently on the electron temperature.

Dynamics of variable dusk–dawn flow associated with magnetotail current sheet flapping

We present Cluster spacecraft observations from 12 October 2006 of convective plasma flows in the Earth's magnetotail. Earthward flow bursts with a dawnward v⊥y component, observed by Cluster 1 (C1), are inconsistent with the duskward flow that might be expected at the pre-midnight location of the spacecraft. Previous observations have suggested that the dusk–dawn sense of the flow can be governed by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) By conditions, with the related “untwisting hypothesis” of magnetotail dynamics commonly invoked to explain this dependence, in terms of a large-scale magnetospheric asymmetry. In the current study, observations of the upstream solar wind conditions from OMNI, magnetic field observations by Cluster and ionospheric convection data using SuperDARN indicate a large-scale magnetospheric morphology consistent with positive IMF By penetration into the magnetotail. At the pre-midnight location of Cluster, however, the dawnward flow observed below the neutral sheet by C1 could only be explained by the untwisting hypothesis in a negative IMF By scenario. The Cluster magnetic field data also reveal a flapping of the magnetotail current sheet, a phenomenon known to influence dusk–dawn flow. Results from the curlometer analysis technique suggest that the dusk–dawn sense of the J×B force was consistent with localised kinks in the magnetic field and the flapping associated with the transient perturbations to the dusk–dawn flow observed by C1. We therefore suggest that the flapping overcame the dusk–dawn sense of the large-scale convection which we would expect to have been net duskward in this case. We conclude that invocation of the untwisting hypothesis may be inappropriate when interpreting intervals of dynamic magnetotail behaviour such as during current sheet flapping, particularly at locations where magnetotail flaring becomes dominant.

Influence of the semidiurnal lunar tide in the equatorial plasma bubble zonal drifts over Brazil

Using OI6300 airglow images collected over São João do Cariri (7.4∘ S, 36.5∘ W) from 2000 to 2007, the equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) zonal drifts were calculated. A strong day-to-day variability was observed in the EPB zonal drifts, which is directly associated with the very complex dynamics of the nighttime thermosphere–ionosphere system near the Equator. The present work investigated the contribution of the semidiurnal lunar tide M2 for the EPB zonal drifts. The M2 presented an amplitude of 3.1 m s−1 in the EPB zonal drifts, which corresponds to 5.6 % of the average drifts. The results showed that the M2 amplitudes in the EPB zonal drifts were solar cycle and seasonally dependent. The amplitude of the M2 was stronger during the high solar activity, reaching over 10 % of the EPB zonal drift average. Regarding the seasons, during the Southern Hemisphere summer, the M2 amplitude was twice as large (12 %) compared to the equinox ones. The seasonality agrees with other observations of the M2 in the ionospheric parameters such as vertical drifts and electron concentration, for instance. On the other hand, the very large M2 amplitudes found during the high solar activity agree with previous observations of the lunar tide in the ionospheric E region.

Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling

In October 2017, the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) Bureau established a committee for the design of SCOSTEP's Next Scientific Programme (NSP). The NSP committee members and authors of this paper decided from the very beginning of their deliberations that the predictability of the Sun–Earth System from a few hours to centuries is a timely scientific topic, combining the interests of different topical communities in a relevant way. Accordingly, the NSP was christened PRESTO – PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling. This paper presents a detailed account of PRESTO; we show the key milestones of the PRESTO roadmap for the next 5 years, review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.

Magnetotail reconnection asymmetries in an ion-scale, Earth-like magnetosphere

We use a newly developed global Hall magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code to investigate how reconnection drives magnetotail asymmetries in small, ion-scale magnetospheres. Here, we consider a magnetosphere with a similar aspect ratio to Earth but with the ion inertial length (δi) artificially inflated by a factor of 70: δi is set to the length of the planetary radius. This results in a magnetotail width on the order of 30 δi, slightly smaller than Mercury's tail and much smaller than Earth's with respect to δi. At this small size, we find that the Hall effect has significant impact on the global flow pattern, changing from a symmetric, Dungey-like convection under resistive MHD to an asymmetric pattern similar to that found in previous Hall MHD simulations of Ganymede's subsonic magnetosphere as well as other simulations of Mercury's using multi-fluid or embedded kinetic physics. We demonstrate that the Hall effect is sufficient to induce a dawnward asymmetry in observed dipolarization front locations and find quasi-periodic global-scale dipolarizations under steady, southward solar wind conditions. On average, we find a thinner current sheet dawnward; however, the measured thickness oscillates with the dipolarization cycle. During the flux-pileup stage, the dawnward current sheet can be thicker than the duskward sheet. This could be an explanation for recent observations that suggest Mercury's current sheet is actually thicker on the duskside: a sampling bias due to a longer lasting “thick” state in the sheet.

Fine-scale dynamics of fragmented aurora-like emissions

Fragmented aurora-like emissions (FAEs) are small (few kilometres) optical structures which have been observed close to the poleward boundary of the aurora from the high-latitude location of Svalbard (magnetic latitude 75.3 ∘N). The FAEs are only visible in certain emissions, and their shape has no magnetic-field-aligned component, suggesting that they are not caused by energetic particle precipitation and are, therefore, not aurora in the normal sense of the word. The FAEs sometimes form wave-like structures parallel to an auroral arc, with regular spacing between each FAE. They drift at a constant speed and exhibit internal dynamics moving at a faster speed than the envelope structure. The formation mechanism of FAEs is currently unknown. We present an analysis of high-resolution optical observations of FAEs made during two separate events. Based on their appearance and dynamics, we make the assumption that the FAEs are a signature of a dispersive wave in the lower E-region ionosphere, co-located with enhanced electron and ion temperatures detected by incoherent scatter radar. Their drift speed (group speed) is found to be 580–700 m s−1, and the speed of their internal dynamics (phase speed) is found to be 2200–2500 m s−1, both for an assumed altitude of 100 km. The speeds are similar for both events which are observed during different auroral conditions. We consider two possible waves which could produce the FAEs, i.e. electrostatic ion cyclotron waves (EIC) and Farley–Buneman waves, and find that the observations could be consistent with either wave under certain assumptions. In the case of EIC waves, the FAEs must be located at an altitude above about 140 km, and our measured speeds scaled accordingly. In the case of Farley–Buneman waves a very strong electric field of about 365 mV m−1 is required to produce the observed speeds of the FAEs; such a strong electric field may be a requirement for FAEs to occur.

Observing electric field and neutral wind with EISCAT 3D

Measurements of height-dependent electric field (E) and neutral wind (u) are important governing parameters of the Earth's upper atmosphere, which can be used to study, for example, how auroral currents close or how energy flows between the ionized and neutral constituents. The new EISCAT 3D (E3D) incoherent scatter radar will be able to measure a three-dimensional ion velocity vector (v) at each measurement point, which will allow less stringent prior assumptions about E and u to be made when estimating them from radar measurements. This study investigates the feasibility of estimating the three-dimensional electric field and neutral wind vectors along a magnetic field-aligned profile from E3D measurements, using the ion momentum equation and Maxwell's equations. The uncertainty of ion drift measurements is estimated for a time and height resolution of 5 s and 2 km. With the most favourable ionospheric conditions, the ion wind at E region peak can be measured with an accuracy of less than 1 m/s. In the worst case, during a geomagnetically quiet night, the uncertainty increases by a factor of around 10. The uncertainty of neutral wind and electric field estimates is found to be strongly dependent on the prior constraints imposed on them. In the lower E region, neutral wind estimates have a lower standard deviation than 10 m/s in the most favourable conditions. In such conditions, also the F region electric field can be estimated with uncertainty of about 1 mV/m. Simulated measurements of v are used to demonstrate the ability to resolve the field-aligned profile of E and u. However, they can only be determined well at the heights where they dominate the ion drift, that is above 125 km for E and below 115 km for u. At the other heights, the results are strongly dependent on the prior assumptions of smoothness.

Seasonal features of geomagnetic activity: a study on the solar activity dependence

Seasonal features of geomagnetic activity and their solar-wind–interplanetary drivers are studied using more than five solar cycles of geomagnetic activity and solar wind observations. This study involves a total of 1296 geomagnetic storms of varying intensity identified using the Dst index from January 1963 to December 2019, a total of 75 863 substorms identified from the SuperMAG AL/SML index from January 1976 to December 2019 and a total of 145 high-intensity long-duration continuous auroral electrojet (AE) activity (HILDCAA) events identified using the AE index from January 1975 to December 2017. The occurrence rates of the substorms and geomagnetic storms, including moderate (-50nT≥Dst>-100nT) and intense (-100nT≥Dst>-250nT) storms, exhibit a significant semi-annual variation (periodicity ∼6 months), while the super storms (Dst≤-250 nT) and HILDCAAs do not exhibit any clear seasonal feature. The geomagnetic activity indices Dst and ap exhibit a semi-annual variation, while AE exhibits an annual variation (periodicity ∼1 year). The annual and semi-annual variations are attributed to the annual variation of the solar wind speed Vsw and the semi-annual variation of the coupling function VBs (where V = Vsw, and Bs is the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field), respectively. We present a detailed analysis of the annual and semi-annual variations and their dependencies on the solar activity cycles separated as the odd, even, weak and strong solar cycles.