Arrival Time Estimates of Earth-Directed CME-Driven Shocks

Solar Physics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 297 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Suresh ◽  
N. Gopalswamy ◽  
A. Shanmugaraju
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Stephen A. Mcaleavey ◽  
Laurentius O. Osapoetra ◽  
Jonathan Langdon

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prama Setia Putra ◽  
Hadrien Oliveri ◽  
Travis B Thompson ◽  
Alain Goriely

Many physical, epidemiological, or physiological dynamical processes on networks support front-like propagation, where an initial localized perturbation grows and systematically invades all nodes in the network. A key question is then to extract estimates for the dynamics. In particular, if a single node is seeded at a small concentration, when will other nodes reach the same initial concentration? Here, motivated by the study of toxic protein propagation in neurodegenerative diseases, we present and compare three different estimates for the arrival time in order of increasing analytical complexity: the linear arrival time, obtained by linearizing the underlying system; the Lambert time, obtained by considering the interaction of two nodes; and the nonlinear arrival time, obtained by asymptotic techniques. We use the classic Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation as a paradigm for the dynamics and show that each method provides different insight and time estimates. Further, we show that the nonlinear asymptotic method also gives an approximate solution valid in the entire domain and the correct ordering of arrival regions over large regions of parameters and initial conditions.


1968 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 1261-1271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen W. Freedman

Abstract A seismological measurement, such as arrival time or, less directly origin time, is an example of a measurement variable which can be considered as the sum of a parameter—the quantity being measured—and an error variable. Optimal methods for the estimation of this parameter vary with the probability distribution of the error variable. In particular, estimation in the presence of bias or of gross errors is discussed, together with the related problem of precision versus accuracy of the estimate. Errors in estimates of arrival times, origin times and hypocentral location contribute to variation in travel-time estimates; these are analyzed separately. Each of these, with the exception of focal depth, has a distribution which can be fitted to a mixture of a normal distribution and some contamination. The degree of contamination varies; methods for truncation are suggested. The presence of possible, often undetectable, bias in locations and travel times may make confidence statements about these parameters unreliable.


2000 ◽  
Vol 54 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 122-133
Author(s):  
Andrey Pavlovich Trifonov ◽  
Yurii Eduardovich Korchagin

1957 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL BAKAN
Keyword(s):  

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