Front propagation and arrival times in networks with application to neurodegenerative diseases

Many physical, epidemiological, or physiological dynamical processes on networks support front-like propagation, where an initial localized perturbation grows and systematically invades all nodes in the network. A key question is then to extract estimates for the dynamics. In particular, if a single node is seeded at a small concentration, when will other nodes reach the same initial concentration? Here, motivated by the study of toxic protein propagation in neurodegenerative diseases, we present and compare three different estimates for the arrival time in order of increasing analytical complexity: the linear arrival time, obtained by linearizing the underlying system; the Lambert time, obtained by considering the interaction of two nodes; and the nonlinear arrival time, obtained by asymptotic techniques. We use the classic Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation as a paradigm for the dynamics and show that each method provides different insight and time estimates. Further, we show that the nonlinear asymptotic method also gives an approximate solution valid in the entire domain and the correct ordering of arrival regions over large regions of parameters and initial conditions.

Dynamic cyber risk estimation with competitive quantile autoregression

The increasing value of data held in enterprises makes it an attractive target to attackers. The increasing likelihood and impact of a cyber attack have highlighted the importance of effective cyber risk estimation. We propose two methods for modelling Value-at-Risk (VaR) which can be used for any time-series data. The first approach is based on Quantile Autoregression (QAR), which can estimate VaR for different quantiles, i. e. confidence levels. The second method, we term Competitive Quantile Autoregression (CQAR), dynamically re-estimates cyber risk as soon as new data becomes available. This method provides a theoretical guarantee that it asymptotically performs as well as any QAR at any time point in the future. We show that these methods can predict the size and inter-arrival time of cyber hacking breaches by running coverage tests. The proposed approaches allow to model a separate stochastic process for each significance level and therefore provide more flexibility compared to previously proposed techniques. We provide a fully reproducible code used for conducting the experiments.

Inventory Application Design for Optimizing Business Processes for MSMEs Nyong Group Yogyakarta

Nyong Group is one of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) located in Sleman, Yogyakarta. Nyong group has several business units, namely nyong shoes and care Yogya, shoes and care Cilacap, nyong donuts, and nyong stalls (food, snacks and chili sauce). The problems by IbM partners include; First, (1) There is no Point of Sales application that uses inventory to meet the needs of the production process or is sold again, (2) Not yet has this Inventory covering raw materials, in-process goods, and goods so (finished goods). The output targets in this program are (1) the application of point of sales applications for recording sales transactions, (2) Adding an inventory application to the created point of sales applications. The service program is carried out in 2 (two) forms; First, (1) design of a point of sales application for Nyong Group's sales transactions. Second, making an inventory application to be able to determine whether to record goods based on arrival time or the amount of stock you can determine to record goods based on arrival time or stock amount. The implementation of this program is designed in four stages of activity, namely: (1) Coordination and preparation stage (2) Design stage (3) Science and technology implementation stage (4) Evaluation and refinement stage.

Analysis of Flexible Batch Service Queueing System to Constrict Waiting Time of Customers

When the required number of customers is available in the general bulk service (GBS) queueing system, the server begins service. Otherwise, the server will remain inactive until the number of consumers in the queue reaches that minimum required number. Customers that have already come must wait throughout this time, regardless of their arrival time. In some circumstances, like specimens awaiting testing in a clinical laboratory or perishable commodities awaiting delivery, it is necessary to finish services before the expiration date. It might only be achievable if consumers’ waiting times are kept under control. As a result, the flexible general bulk service (FGBS) rule is developed in this article to provide flexibility in batching. The effectiveness of FGBS implementation has been demonstrated using two examples: a clinical laboratory and a distribution center. To justify the suggested model, a simulation study and numerical illustration are provided.

Impacts of Metering-Based Dynamic Priority Schemes

Several works published over the last two decades have shown for a stylized set-up with homogeneous users that metering-based priority (MBP) schemes may generate Pareto improving departure time adjustments similar to those induced by congestion pricing, but without any financial transaction. We investigate whether MBP (i) still generates significant savings and (ii) remains Pareto-improving, with various sources of heterogeneity (in schedule flexibility, desired arrival time, and capacity usage). We consider two types of schemes: one where the priority status is allocated randomly (R-MBP) and another (HOV-MBP), which only prioritizes users with small capacity usage (e.g., carpoolers). We find that the relative total cost savings of R-MBP decrease with heterogeneity in flexibility, but may increase with heterogeneity in desired arrival time. It fails however to be Pareto-improving, as nonprioritized users are almost systematically worse-off. HOV-MBP circumvents this issue by generating an ordering effect and a modal shift, which both contribute to a better distribution of benefits among users. Under favorable circumstances, they may even restore a Pareto improvement. Overall, MBP appears as a realistic way to alleviate congestion, scoring well both in terms of efficiency and social acceptability.

Analysis of Small and Medium–Scale River Flood Risk in Case of Exceeding Control Standard Floods Using Hydraulic Model

Exceeding control standard floods pose threats to the management of small and medium–scale rivers. Taking Fuzhouhe river as an example, this paper analyzes the submerged depth, submerged area and arrival time of river flood risk in the case of exceeding control standard floods (with return period of 20, 50, 100 and 200 years) through a coupled one– and two–dimensional hydrodynamic model, draws the flood risk maps and proposes emergency plans. The simulation results of the one–dimensional model reveal that the dikes would be at risk of overflowing for different frequencies of floods, with a higher level of risk on the left bank. The results of the coupled model demonstrate that under all scenarios, the inundation area gradually increases with time until the flood peak subsides, and the larger the flood peak, the faster the inundation area increases. The maximum submerged areas are 42.73 km2, 65.95 km2, 74.86 km2 and 82.71 km2 for four frequencies of flood, respectively. The change of submerged depth under different frequency floods shows a downward–upward–downward trend and the average submerged depth of each frequency floods is about 1.4 m. The flood risk maps of different flood frequencies are created by GIS to analyze flood arrival time, submerged area and submerged depth to plan escape routes and resettlement units. The migration distances are limited within 4 km, the average migration distance is about 2 km, the vehicle evacuation time is less than 20 min, and the walking evacuation time is set to about 70 min. It is concluded that the flood risk of small and medium–scale rivers is a dynamic change process, and dynamic flood assessment, flood warning and embankment modification scheme should be further explored.