scholarly journals Developing a System Dynamics Model for the Nizhniy Kaban and Sredniy Kaban Lakes, Kazan, Russia, Assessing the Impacts of Phosphorus and Nitrogen Inputs on Lake Ecology

2021 ◽  
Vol 232 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liudmila L. Frolova ◽  
Antoniy Elias Sverdrup ◽  
Harald Ulrik Sverdrup
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Lake Chemistry ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Written Narratives ◽  
Lake Ecology ◽  
Nitrogen Inputs ◽  
The Moment

AbstractThe Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model (KLIAM) was developed for the lake hydrology, chemistry, and plankton dynamics of the Nizhniy Kaban and Sredniy Kaban lakes, Kazan, Russia. KLIAM is able to describe the variations seen in the Kaban lakes chemical and biological states as far seen through measurements available at the moment. KLIAM is able to reconstruct the lake history as it is approximately known from the data and written narratives. KLIAM was used to assess the measures to return the lakes to their original pre-urban status as alkaline and semi-oligotrophic lakes. The Kaban Lakes periodically goes through plankton blooms, as seen in the lake in the last decades since before World War II, which are caused by plankton growth promoted by phosphorus and nitrogen coming to the lakes as pollution from the human environment. In the new plans for development of the area surrounding the Nizhniy Kaban and Sredniy Kaban lakes, we suggest that attention is paid to reducing phosphorus and nitrogen flows to the lakes, as the best way to improve their ecological status. This is based on simulations with KLIAM. We recommend that the monitoring of lake chemistry and lake ecology is improved with reoccurring analysis of samples from the Kaban Lakes.

scholarly journals The role of biomaterials for the energy transition from the lens of a national integrated assessment model

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla C. N. de Oliveira ◽  
Gerd Angelkorte ◽  
Pedro R. R. Rochedo ◽  
Alexandre Szklo
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model

MITIGATION COST AND CLIMATE DAMAGE VERSUS INCENTIVE SHIFTS OF CLIMATE COALITION

2016 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650011
Author(s):  
ZILI YANG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bargaining Game ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Cost ◽  
The Core ◽  
Cooperative Bargaining

Climate damage and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation cost plays important roles in a region’s willingness and incentives to join the global climate coalition. Negotiation of climate treaty can be modeled as a cooperative bargaining game of externality provision. The core of this game is a good representation of incentives of the participants. In this paper, we examine the relationship between the shocks of mitigation cost/climate damage and the shifts of the core of cooperative bargaining game of climate negotiation within the framework of RICE [Nordhaus and Yang, 1996. A regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies. American Economic Review, 86, 741–765], a widely used integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate change. Constructing a method that maps the core allocations onto a convex hull on the simplex of social welfare weights, we describe the scope of the core in simple metrics and capture the shifts of the core representation on the simplex in response to the shocks of mitigation cost and climate damage. A series of simulations are conducted in RICE to demonstrate the usefulness of the approach explored here. In addition, policy implications of methodological results are indicated.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Integrated Assessment Model hindcast experiments: A case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail C. Snyder ◽  
Robert P. Link ◽  
Katherine V. Calvin
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Land Allocation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Performance Benchmarks

Abstract. Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data is available) are rarely undertaken in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) community. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation based measures that can be applied at different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable-region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. This is key in the integrated assessment community, where there often are not multiple models conducting hindcast experiments to allow for model intercomparison. The performance benchmarks serve a second purpose, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. As a case study, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs, such as GCAM, that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period. Additionally, the deviation measures examined in this work successfully identity parametric and structural changes that may improve land allocation decisions in GCAM. Future work will involve implementing the suggested improvements to the GCAM land allocation system identified by the measures in this work, using the measures to quantify performance improvement due to these changes, and, ideally, applying these measures to other sectors of GCAM and other land allocation models.

scholarly journals TRANSITION TO THE SECOND GREEN REVOLUTION IN THE CONDITIONS OF ACCOUNT TO DIGITAL ECONOMY

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Green Revolution ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Digital Information ◽  
World War ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
The Moment

the problems of the transition to the second green revolution in the context of tak-ing into account the digital economy were considered from the state of the moment of Russian agri-culture in 1913, taking into account both the yield, harvesting and export of cereals and the number of horses and cattle before and after the First World War, after the Civil War, on the eve and after World War II. The situation of mechanization of agriculture and the transition to intensive produc-tion and supply by defense consumers with the transition to the first green revolution and the inten-sive development of animal husbandry with the Italian technology of megacomplexes of pig and poultry farming with the import of corn to feed them are considered. The balance of feed is practically not achieved due to the intensive export of cereals, mainly wheat, corn and soybeans abroad. The increase in the production of various grain crops is currently possible only due to the transition to intensification of their production, the introduction of biomineral fertilizers in the framework of the second green revolution and the consideration of the prospects of digital information and communication technologies in the development of the digital economy.

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