scholarly journals Seasonalities in the German stock market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Hofmann ◽  
Karl Ludwig Keiber
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
German Stock ◽  
Common Risk Factors ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
German Stock Market

AbstractThis paper suggests innovative investment strategies drawing on return seasonalities. By means of an out-of-sample study of the German stock market, we report that these long–short investment strategies earn on average raw returns up to 233 basis points per month throughout two decades from 1998 to 2017. On a monthly basis, this documents an outperformance of the corresponding Heston and Sadka (J Financ Econ 87(2):418–445, 2008) strategy by 66%. This outperformance is robust in magnitude even after adjusting for common risk factors along both the three-factor Fama and French (J Financ Econ 33(1):3–56, 1993) model and the four-factor Carhart (J Finance 52(1):57–82, 1997) model. Categorizing stocks into three risk profiles lets us conclude that long–short momentum portfolios of stocks with a low-risk profile generate robust investment performance.

scholarly journals Sticky Stock Market Analysts

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 593
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Filiz ◽  
Jan René Judek ◽  
Marco Lorenz ◽  
Markus Spiwoks
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
German Stock ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
German Stock Market ◽  
Better Than

Technological progress in recent years has made new methods available for making forecasts in a variety of areas. We examine the success of ex-ante stock market forecasts of three major stock market indices, i.e., the German Stock Market Index (DAX), the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), and the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E). We test whether the forecasts prove true when they reach their effective dates and are therefore suitable for active investment strategies. We revive the thoughts of the American sociologist William Fielding Ogburn, who argues that forecasters consistently underestimate the variability of the future. In addition, we draw on some contemporary measures of forecast quality (prediction-realization diagram, test of unbiasedness, and Diebold–Mariano test). We reveal that (a) unusual events are underrepresented in the forecasts, (b) the dispersion of the forecasts lags behind that of the actual events, (c) the slope of the regression lines in the prediction-realization diagram is <1, (d) the forecasts are highly biased, and (e) the quality of the forecasts is not significantly better than that of naïve forecasts. The overall behavior of the forecasters can be described as “sticky” because their forecasts adhere too strongly to long-term trends in the indices and are thus characterized by conservatism.

scholarly journals Can the FSCORE add value to anomaly-based portfolios? A reality check in the German stock market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eero J. Pätäri ◽  
Timo H. Leivo ◽  
Sheraz Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Research Setting ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Reality Check ◽  
German Stock ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
German Stock Market

AbstractThis paper examines the added value of using financial statement information, particularly that of Piotroski’s (J Account Res 38:1, 2000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2672906) FSCORE, for equity portfolio selection in the German stock market in a realistic research setting in which the critique against the implementability of FSCORE-based trading strategies is taken into account. We show that the performance of annually rebalanced long-only portfolios formed on any of the examined 12 accounting-based primary criteria improves by including the FSCORE as a supplementary criterion. Our study is the first to show that although the FSCORE boost is strongest for the 1-year holding period length, it also holds, on average, for the 3-year holding period. The use of a 3-year updating frequency is particularly beneficial for the low-accrual portfolio that—when supplemented with the high-FSCORE threshold—generates the best overall performance among all 75 portfolios examined. Moreover, we show that a high FSCORE is also an efficient stand-alone criterion for long-only portfolio formation.

scholarly journals The Impact of Investor Sentiment on the German Stock Market

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Finter ◽  
Alexandra Niessen-Ruenzi ◽  
Stefan Ruenzi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
German Stock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
German Stock Market
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document