Permutation entropy and statistical analysis of the historical evolution of the Mexican stock market index

The objective of this work is to analyze the Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPC), which is the Mexican stock market index, by using several statistical tools in order to study the tendencies that can shed light on the evolution of the IPC towards a more efficient market. The methodology used is to apply the statistical tools to the Mexican index and compare the results with a mature and well-known market index such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We employ an autocorrelation analysis, and the volatility of the indexes, applied to the daily returns of the closing price on a moving time window during the studied period (1980–2018). Additionally, we perform an order three permutation entropy analysis, which can quantify the disorder present in the time series. Our results show that there is evidence that the IPC has become more mature since its creation and that it can be considered an efficient market since around year 2000. The behavior of the several techniques used shows a similar behavior to the DJIA which is not observed before that year. There are some limitations mainly because there is no high frequency data that would permit a more detailed analysis, specifically in the periods before and after a crisis is located. Our conclusion is that since around the year 2000, the Mexican stock index displays the typical behavior of other mature markets and can be considered as one.

The Influence of ASEAN Bond Market Integration in the Philippines’ Inflationary Pressures, Credit Expansions, and its Challenges

Bond markets have grown mature in many countries; however, the quality of financial integration varies across ASEAN economies. In the case of bond markets in the ASEAN +3, they experienced fast development; however, they are still less integrated. This study attempts to examine the ramifications of the ASEAN bond market integration and past crises to the Philippines’ inflation, credit, and growth and identify what impedes the development of the bond market for the period of 1992 to 2017. The study also aims to have a more in-depth analysis on preventing rises from happening and controlling both credit expansions and inflationary pressures. The Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) was used to examine the relationship of inflation, credit, bond market index, real interest rate, and integration to the Philippines’ growth. This led to this paper providing empirical insights that credit has a significant positive relationship with GDP growth; while, inflation has a significant negative relationship with GDP growth. However, the bond market index and integration showed insignificant negative results. This study provides possible reasons for the said conclusion and suggests ways not only to develop and grow the debt market in the Philippines but also to sustain long-run economic stability and growth to become on par with other ASEAN economies.

Dynamic Linkages among Saudi Market Sectors Indices

This study aims to test the causal relationship between Saudi stock market index (TASI) and sectoral indices throughout the period from 2016–2020. The study data were extracted through the main index of the Saudi market and the indices of the available data of 19 sectors out of 21 sectors. The unit root test was used along with the Granger causality test, in addition to multiple regression tests in order to analyze the study hypotheses. The study shows that all index series were stationary at the zero level I (0), and the results also show that there were bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships between TASI and sectoral indices, and that TASI effectively mirrors all the changes that occur in the Saudi stock market.

Impact of Macroeconomic Variables, American Stock Market Index and Covid-19 Pandemic on Indonesia Capital Market Development (Time Series Study 1990-2020)

The purpose of this study is 1.) To analyze the influence of foreign investment on the development of the Indonesian capital market. 2).To analyze the influence of the Exchange Rate on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market. 3).To analyze the influence of the Interest Rate on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market. 4).To analyze the influence of the Dow Jones Stock Market Index on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market. 5).To analyze the influence of the Covid-19 Pandemic (dummy variable) on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market.6). In this study, secondary data and library research were used as a technique for collecting data, using semi-annual data for the period 1990-2020. The research was processed using the EViews 11 program with the multiple linear regression method. The results of the research are known if 1.) Foreign Direct Investment has a significant and positive effect on Capital Market Development. 2.) Exchange Rates have a significant and positive influence on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market. 3.) Interest Rates have a significant and negative effect on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market. 4.) The Dow Jones Stock Market Index has a significant and positive effect on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market. 5.) The Covid-19 pandemic had a significant and negative effect on the Development of the Indonesian Capital Market in the period 1990 to 2020. The results of this study are expected to contribute to policy holders regarding the role of macroeconomic variables on the development of the capital market, so that in the future it can be one of the references in conducting the policy mix so as to improve the development of the Indonesian capital market.

Local Stock Market Integration with International Gold and Oil Price

We look for the integration of Bangladesh Stock Market with international gold and oil price using most recent monthly data set from January 2003 to December 2020 (2003m1-2020m12). We employ the bounds-testing approach to cointegration between stock market index (DSEX) and international gold and oil price and eventually find an integration and dynamic significant impact of international gold and oil price on DSEX in the long and short-run. We discuss the important policy implications of the dynamic impact of international gold and oil price on stock market index.

Are ESG Shares a Safe Haven during COVID-19? Evidence from the Arab Region

The world experienced significant changes in its social and economic lives in 2020–21. Major stock markets experienced an immediate decline. This paper attempts to examine the impact of COVID-19 on stock market performance as well as to identify the differences between the responses of ESG stocks and normal stocks to pandemic conditions in the Arab region. Daily time series for three years between March 2019 and March 2021 were collected for the S&P Pan Arab Composite index and S&P/Hawkamah ESG Pan Arab Index. We used a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to measure market shocks and a non-linear autoregressive distributed lagged (NARDL) regression model to display the relationship between COVID-19 measurements and the performance of stock indexes. The findings suggest that the volatilities of ESG portfolios and conventional ones were equally affected in the pre-COVID period. However, in the post-COVID period, the magnitude of volatility in the ESG stock index was significantly less compared to that of the conventional stock index. The results also revealed that in the ESG market, shock tended to remain for a shorter period. Furthermore, the ESG index was not affected by the number of confirmed cases and deaths. However, evidence of asymmetric long-run cointegration existed between the S&P index and number of cases and deaths. Increases in the numbers of cases and deaths caused a decline in market index, whereas the reverse trends were observed in the retreat of the pandemic.

Strategies of portfolio investment with estimates of bull and bear markets

The financial market has non-linear patterns, with different return behavior in bull versus bear markets. This article uses multivariate model estimates to study portfolios in changing conditions, and develops investment strategies for portfolios in light of uncertainty about the bear or bull status of the stock market. Portfolios were optimized for the main stocks listed on the Brazilian market index Ibovespa. The portfolios proposed with estimates of changing market status outperformed others over the analyzed period, with rebalancing adjustments made either weekly or monthly.

Is Bitcoin Price Driven by Macro-financial Factors and Liquidity? A Global Consumer Survey Empirical Study

This research aims to utilize macro-financial and liquidity elements as the factors that may affect the price of Bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. The macro-financial factors analyzed in this study were foreign exchange, stock market index, interest rates, and gold, while liquidity ratio is the internal factor. This study applied a fixed-effect model (FEM) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on gathered weekly data from 1 January 2017 to 29 December 2019 from 18 countries with the total of 2,826 observations. The analysis revealed that US Dollar amplifies Bitcoin trading; an increase in interest rate will decrease investors’ intention to invest in Bitcoin as a speculative asset, and gold could replace Bitcoin as a substitute asset. Moreover, Bitcoin was found to be highly liquid, which attracts many investors, while the stock market index proved to be insignificant.

ESG impact on financial corporate performance and portfolio returns: evidence of Australia and Japan

Environmental, Social, and Governance investing has undergone a radical shift; companies and investors have focused on the impact of the disclosure of the practices and policies related to the environment, social responsibility, and governance in their operational strategies and investment. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the impact that the ESG policies have on public companies' stock returns in Australia and Japan. Accounting and market-based measures are used to determine the impact ESG practices have on stock market index returns. The annual data used is of companies from Australia's S&P/ASX Index and Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, covering the period from 2005 to 2019. Fixed effect model regression was used to test the significant relationship between companies' stock returns and ESG score, accounting, and market-based measures. Portfolios were created to analyze the risk/return relationship between companies with and without ESG across countries. The findings indicate mixed results. Australia´s non-ESG portfolios outperform the S&P500 and ESG portfolios. Japan´s portfolio has positive returns but underperforms the benchmark. Low market capitalization portfolios with and without ESG outperform the higher capitalization portfolios.

The Development and Transformation of the Bank Card Market as an Imperative for Digitalization: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries

The purpose of this study is to determine the development trends of the major determinants of the bank card market in eight countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the period from 2010 to 2019. Continuing a study carried out in 2018, further comparative analysis of the “Bank Cards Market Index” proposed earlier and based on a system of interrelated indicators of bank payment cards, ATMs and POS‑terminals, was carried out. We provide an overview of the rankings of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Russia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia using international ranking systems such as “The Legatum Prosperity Index,” “Doing Business,” “The Index of Economic Freedom,” and the “Вank Cards Market Index.” Further studies of three international ranking systems, as well as the “Bank Cards Market Index,” again confirmed the similarity of the development models of the bank card market in Poland and Ukraine. To study the impact of the digitalization of economics and Covid–19 on the bank card market, a deeper analysis of two cases (Poland and Ukraine, as two similar bank card markets) was carried out using the “Digital Evolution Index.” In the course of the research, it was concluded that the “Вank Cards Market Index” can be successfully used for further research of the banking sector of different countries. Also, the growth trend of cashless payments in the bank card market and the possible transformation of the market under the influence of Covid–19, and the global digitalization of economics were noticed. Taking into account the above trend, further studies of the system of interrelated indicators of bank payment cards, ATMs, and POS terminals should be carried out using the “Digital Evolution Index” or other international indexes that characterize the level of digitalization of the economy in the researched countries.