scholarly journals Probabilistic Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Gao ◽  
Hannah M. Director ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Adrian E. Raftery
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Gaussian Random Field ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

AbstractIn recent decades, warming temperatures have caused sharp reductions in the volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Predicting changes in Arctic sea ice thickness is vital in a changing Arctic for making decisions about shipping and resource management in the region. We propose a statistical spatio-temporal two-stage model for sea ice thickness and use it to generate probabilistic forecasts up to three months into the future. Our approach combines a contour model to predict the ice-covered region with a Gaussian random field to model ice thickness conditional on the ice-covered region. Using the most complete estimates of sea ice thickness currently available, we apply our method to forecast Arctic sea ice thickness. Point predictions and prediction intervals from our model offer comparable accuracy and improved calibration compared with existing forecasts. We show that existing forecasts produced by ensembles of deterministic dynamic models can have large errors and poor calibration. We also show that our statistical model can generate good forecasts of aggregate quantities such as overall and regional sea ice volume. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

scholarly journals Near Real Time Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Tilling ◽  
A. Ridout ◽  
A. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Satellite Orbits ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Timely observations of sea ice thickness help us to understand Arctic climate, and can support maritime activities in the Polar Regions. Although it is possible to calculate Arctic sea ice thickness using measurements acquired by CryoSat-2, the latency of the final release dataset is typically one month, due to the time required to determine precise satellite orbits. We use a new fast delivery CryoSat-2 dataset based on preliminary orbits to compute Arctic sea ice thickness in near real time (NRT), and analyse this data for one sea ice growth season from October 2014 to April 2015. We show that this NRT sea ice thickness product is of comparable accuracy to that produced using the final release CryoSat-2 data, with an average thickness difference of 5 cm, demonstrating that the satellite orbit is not a critical factor in determining sea ice freeboard. In addition, the CryoSat-2 fast delivery product also provides measurements of Arctic sea ice thickness within three days of acquisition by the satellite, and a measurement is delivered, on average, within 10, 7 and 6 km of each location in the Arctic every 2, 14 and 28 days respectively. The CryoSat-2 NRT sea ice thickness dataset provides an additional constraint for seasonal predictions of Arctic climate change, and will allow industries such as tourism and transport to navigate the polar oceans with safety and care.

scholarly journals Estimating Arctic Sea Ice Thickness with CryoSat-2 Altimetry Data Using the Least Squares Adjustment Method

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 7011
Author(s):  
Feng Xiao ◽  
Fei Li ◽  
Shengkai Zhang ◽  
Jiaxing Li ◽  
Tong Geng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Altimetry Data ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Least Squares Adjustment ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Satellite altimeters can be used to derive long-term and large-scale sea ice thickness changes. Sea ice thickness retrieval is based on measurements of freeboard, and the conversion of freeboard to thickness requires knowledge of the snow depth and snow, sea ice, and sea water densities. However, these parameters are difficult to be observed concurrently with altimeter measurements. The uncertainties in these parameters inevitably cause uncertainties in sea ice thickness estimations. This paper introduces a new method based on least squares adjustment (LSA) to estimate Arctic sea ice thickness with CryoSat-2 measurements. A model between the sea ice freeboard and thickness is established within a 5 km × 5 km grid, and the model coefficients and sea ice thickness are calculated using the LSA method. Based on the newly developed method, we are able to derive estimates of the Arctic sea ice thickness for 2010 through 2019 using CryoSat-2 altimetry data. Spatial and temporal variations of the Arctic sea ice thickness are analyzed, and comparisons between sea ice thickness estimates using the LSA method and three CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness products (Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre (GSFC)) are performed for the 2018–2019 Arctic sea ice growth season. The overall differences of sea ice thickness estimated in this study between AWI, CPOM, and GSFC are 0.025 ± 0.640 m, 0.143 ± 0.640 m, and −0.274 ± 0.628 m, respectively. Large differences between the LSA and three products tend to appear in areas covered with thin ice due to the limited accuracy of CryoSat-2 over thin ice. Spatiotemporally coincident Operation IceBridge (OIB) thickness values are also used for validation. Good agreement with a difference of 0.065 ± 0.187 m is found between our estimates and the OIB results.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Arctic sea ice thickness and volume derived from ice age

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1325-1345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghui Liu ◽  
Jeffrey R. Key ◽  
Xuanji Wang ◽  
Mark Tschudi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Sea ice is a key component of the Arctic climate system, and has impacts on global climate. Ice concentration, thickness, and volume are among the most important Arctic sea ice parameters. This study presents a new record of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from 1984 to 2018 based on an existing satellite-derived ice age product. The relationship between ice age and ice thickness is first established for every month based on collocated ice age and ice thickness from submarine sonar data (1984–2000) and ICESat (2003–2008) and an empirical ice growth model. Based on this relationship, ice thickness is derived for the entire time period from the weekly ice age product, and the Arctic monthly sea ice volume is then calculated. The ice-age-based thickness and volume show good agreement in terms of bias and root-mean-square error with submarine, ICESat, and CryoSat-2 ice thickness, as well as ICESat and CryoSat-2 ice volume, in February–March and October–November. More detailed comparisons with independent data from Envisat for 2003 to 2010 and CryoSat-2 from CPOM, AWI, and NASA GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) for 2011 to 2018 show low bias in ice-age-based thickness. The ratios of the ice volume uncertainties to the mean range from 21 % to 29 %. Analysis of the derived data shows that the ice-age-based sea ice volume exhibits a decreasing trend of −411 km3 yr−1 from 1984 to 2018, stronger than the trends from other datasets. Of the factors affecting the sea ice volume trends, changes in sea ice thickness contribute more than changes in sea ice area, with a contribution of at least 80 % from changes in sea ice thickness from November to May and nearly 50 % in August and September, while less than 30 % is from changes in sea ice area in all months.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Arctic sea ice thickness internal variability and its changes under historical and anthropogenic forcing

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillian Van Achter ◽  
Leandro Ponsoni ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Thierry Fichefet ◽  
Vincent Legat
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. We use model simulations from the CESM1-CAM5-BGC-LE dataset to characterise the Arctic sea ice thickness internal variability both spatially and temporally. These properties, and their stationarity, are investigated in three different contexts: (1) constant, pre-industrial, (2) historical and (3) projected conditions. Spatial modes of variability show highly stationary patterns regardless of the forcing and mean state. A temporal analysis reveals two peaks of significant variability and despite a non-stationarity on short time-scales, they remain more or less stable until the first half of the 21st century, where they start to change once summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.

scholarly journals The relation between sea ice thickness and freeboard in the Arctic

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 641-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Alexandrov ◽  
S. Sandven ◽  
J. Wahlin ◽  
O. M. Johannessen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Empirical Relation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Radar Altimeter ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Retrieval of Arctic sea ice thickness from radar altimeter freeboard data, to be provided by CryoSat-2, requires observational data to verify the relation between the two variables. In this study in-situ ice and snow data from 689 observation sites obtained during the Sever expeditions in the 1980s have been used to establish an empirical relation between ice thickness and freeboard. Estimates of mean and variability of snow depth, snow density and ice density were produced based on many field observations, and have been used in the isostatic equilibrium equation to estimate ice thickness as a function of ice freeboard, snow depth and snow/ice density. The accuracy of the ice thickness retrieval has been calculated from the estimated variability in ice and snow parameters and error of ice freeboard measurements. It is found that uncertainties of ice density and freeboard are the major sources of error in ice thickness calculation. For FY ice, retrieval of ≈1.0 m (2.0 m) thickness has an uncertainty of 60% (41%). For MY ice the main uncertainty is ice density error, since the freeboard error is relatively smaller than for FY ice. Retrieval of 2.4 m (3.0 m) thick MY ice has an error of 24% (21%). The freeboard error is ±0.05 m for both the FY and MY ice. If the freeboard error can be reduced to 0.01 m by averaging a large number of measurements from CryoSat, the error in thickness retrieval is reduced to about 32% for a 1.0 m thick FY floe and to about 18% for a 2.3 m thick MY floe. The remaining error is dominated by uncertainty in ice density. Provision of improved ice density data is therefore important for accurate retrieval of ice thickness from CryoSat data.

scholarly journals Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 3821-3857 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Melia ◽  
K. Haines ◽  
E. Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various spatial and temporal biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT to narrow projection uncertainty via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the uncertainty in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of sea ice internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to narrow uncertainty in climate projections more generally.

scholarly journals Circumpolar Thin Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Small-Scale Roughness Retrieval Using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active Passive Observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 2835
Author(s):  
Suna Jo ◽  
Hyun-Cheol Kim ◽  
Young-Joo Kwon ◽  
Sungwook Hong
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Microwave Remote Sensing ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ocean Salinity ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

The variations in the Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) due to climate change have both positive and negative effects on commercial human activities, the ecosystem, and the Earth’s environment. Satellite microwave remote sensing based on microwave reflection signals reflected by the sea ice surface has been playing an essential role in monitoring and analyzing the Arctic SIT and sea ice concentration (SIC) during the past decades. Recently, passive microwave satellites incorporating an L-band radiometer, such as soil moisture and ocean salinity (SMOS) and soil moisture active passive (SMAP), have been used for analyzing sea ice characteristics, in addition to land and ocean research. In this study, we present a novel method to estimate thin SIT and sea ice roughness (SIR) using a conversion relationship between them, from the SMAP and SMOS data. Methodologically, the SMAP SIR is retrieved. The SMAP thin SIT and SMOS SIR are estimated using a conversion relationship between thin SIT data from SMOS data and SMAP-derived SIR, which is obtained from the spatial and temporal collocation of the SMOS thin SIT and the SIR retrieved from SMAP. Our results for the Arctic sea ice during December for four consecutive years from 2015 to 2018, show high accuracy (bias = −2.268 cm, root mean square error (RMSE) = 15.919 cm, and correlation coefficient (CC) = 0.414) between the SMOS-provided thin SIT and SMAP-derived SIT, and good agreement (bias = 0.03 cm, RMSE = 0.228 cm, and CC = 0.496) between the SMOS-estimated SIR and SMAP-retrieved SIR. Consequently, our study could be effectively used for monitoring and analyzing the variation in the Arctic sea ice.

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