Reply to “Comments on POTSOL: Model to predict extraterrestrial and clear sky solar radiation and ground level solar radiation prediction model including cloud cover effects”

After shading a light on the extraterrestrial solar radiation in the chapter 3 it is important to evaluate the global terrestrial solar radiation and its components. The information on terrestrial solar radiation is required in several different forms depending on the kinds of calculations and kind of application that are to be done. Of course, terrestrial solar radiation on the horizontal plane depends on the different weather conditions such as cloud cover, relative humidity, and ambient temperature. Therefore, the impact of the atmosphere on solar radiation should be considered. One of the most important points of terrestrial solar radiation evaluation is its determination during clear sky conditions. Therefore, in this chapter, the equations that determine the air mass basing on available theories are given and the clear sky conditions are introduced with shading a light on the previous work in identifying clear sky conditions. Taking into consideration that, clear sky solar radiation estimation is of great importance for solar tracking, a detailed review of main available models is given in this chapter. As daily, monthly, seasonally, biannually and yearly mean daily solar radiations are required information for designing and installing long term tracking systems, different available methods are commented regarding their applicability for the estimation of solar radiation information in the desired format from the data that are available. An important accent is paid also on the assessment and comparison of monthly mean daily solar radiation estimation models.

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Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty

10.5194/acp-2018-1154 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Minttu Tuononen ◽

Ewan J. O'Connor ◽

Victoria A. Sinclair

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Surface Radiation ◽

Cloud Base ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Positive Bias ◽

Radiative Balance ◽

Clear Sky

Abstract. The presence of clouds, and their characteristics, has a strong impact on the radiative balance of the Earth and on the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Many applications require accurate forecasts of surface radiation on weather timescales, for example, solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. Here we investigate how operational forecasts of low and mid-level clouds affect the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts. Four years of cloud and solar radiation observations from one site – Helsinki, Finland, are analysed. Cloud observations are obtained from a ceilometer and therefore, we first develop algorithms to reliably detect cloud base, precipitation and fog. These new algorithms are widely applicable for both operational use and research, such as in-cloud icing detection for the wind energy industry and for aviation. The cloud and radiation observations are compared to forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) run operationally and developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We develop methods to evaluate the skill of the cloud and radiation forecasts. These methods can potentially be extended to hundreds of sites globally. Over Helsinki, the measured Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is strongly influenced by its northerly location and the annual variation in cloudiness. Solar radiation forecast error is therefore larger in summer than in winter, but the relative error in the solar radiation forecast is more or less constant throughout the year. The mean overall bias in the GHI forecast is positive (8 W m−2). The observed and forecast distributions in cloud cover, at the spatial scales we are considering, are strongly skewed towards clear-sky and overcast situations. Cloud cover forecasts show more skill in winter when the cloud cover is predominantly overcast; in summer there are more clear-sky and broken cloud situations. A negative bias was found in forecast GHI for correctly forecast clear-sky cases and a positive bias in correctly forecast overcast cases. Temporal averaging improved the cloud cover forecast and hence decreased the solar radiation forecast error, but made little impact on the overall bias. The positive bias seen in overcast situations occurs when the model cloud has low values of liquid water path (LWP). We attribute this bias to the model having LWP values that are too low or that the model optical properties for clouds with low LWP are incorrect.

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Decadal variations in estimated surface solar radiation over Switzerland since the late 19th century

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-12-8635-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (18) ◽

pp. 8635-8644 ◽

Cited By ~ 64

Author(s):

A. Sanchez-Lorenzo ◽

M. Wild

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

20Th Century ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Decadal Variability ◽

Sunshine Duration ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Decadal Variations ◽

The 1950S

Abstract. Our knowledge on trends in surface solar radiation (SSR) involves uncertainties due to the scarcity of long-term time series of SSR, especially with records before the second half of the 20th century. Here we study the trends of all-sky SSR from 1885 to 2010 in Switzerland, which have been estimated using a homogenous dataset of sunshine duration series. This variable is shown to be a useful proxy data of all-sky SSR, which can help to solve some of the current open issues in the dimming/brightening phenomenon. All-sky SSR has been fairly stable with little variations in the first half of the 20th century, unlike the second half of the 20th century that is characterized also in Switzerland by a dimming from the 1950s to the 1980s and a subsequent brightening. Cloud cover changes seem to explain the major part of the decadal variability observed in all-sky SSR, at least from 1885 to the 1970s; at this point, a discrepancy in the sign of the trend is visible in the all-sky SSR and cloud cover series from the 1970s to the present. Finally, an attempt to estimate SSR series for clear-sky conditions, based also on sunshine duration records since the 1930s, has been made for the first time. The mean clear-sky SSR series shows no relevant changes between the 1930s to the 1950s, then a decrease, smaller than the observed in the all-sky SSR, from the 1960s to 1970s, and ends with a strong increase from the 1980s up to the present. During the three decades from 1981 to 2010 the estimated clear-sky SSR trends reported in this study are in line with previous findings over Switzerland based on direct radiative flux measurements. Moreover, the signal of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruption visible in the estimated clear-sky SSR records further demonstrates the potential to infer aerosol-induced radiation changes from sunshine duration observations.

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Cloudiness Information Services for Solar Energy Management in West Africa

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11080857 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 857

Author(s):

Derrick Kwadwo Danso ◽

Sandrine Anquetin ◽

Arona Diedhiou ◽

Rabani Adamou

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

West Africa ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Shortwave Radiation ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Incoming Solar Radiation ◽

Sahel Region ◽

Sky Conditions

In West Africa (WA), interest in solar energy development has risen in recent years with many planned and ongoing projects currently in the region. However, a major drawback to this development in the region is the intense cloud cover that reduces the incoming solar radiation when present and causes fluctuations in solar power production. Therefore, understanding the occurrence of clouds and their link to the surface solar radiation in the region is important for making plans to manage future solar energy production. In this study, we use the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ReAnalysis (ERA5) dataset to examine the occurrence and persistence of cloudy and clear-sky conditions in the region. Then, we investigate the effects of cloud cover on the quantity and variability of the incoming solar radiation. The cloud shortwave radiation attenuation (CRASW↓) is used to quantify the amount of incoming solar radiation that is lost due to clouds. The results showed that the attenuation of incoming solar radiation is stronger in all months over the southern part of WA near the Guinea Coast. Across the whole region, the maximum attenuation occurs in August, with a mean CRASW↓ of about 55% over southern WA and between 20% and 35% in the Sahelian region. Southern WA is characterized by a higher occurrence of persistent cloudy conditions, while the Sahel region and northern WA are associated with frequent clear-sky conditions. Nonetheless, continuous periods with extremely low surface solar radiation were found to be few over the whole region. The analysis also showed that the surface solar radiation received from November to April only varies marginally from one year to the other. However, there is a higher uncertainty during the core of the monsoon season (June to October) with regard to the quantity of incoming solar radiation. The results obtained show the need for robust management plans to ensure the long-term success of solar energy projects in the region.

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Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (3) ◽

pp. 1985-2000 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Minttu Tuononen ◽

Ewan J. O'Connor ◽

Victoria A. Sinclair

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Surface Radiation ◽

Cloud Base ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Positive Bias ◽

Radiative Balance ◽

Clear Sky

Abstract. The presence of clouds and their characteristics have a strong impact on the radiative balance of the Earth and on the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Many applications require accurate forecasts of surface radiation on weather timescales, for example solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. Here we investigate how operational forecasts of low and mid-level clouds affect the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts. A total of 4 years of cloud and solar radiation observations from one site in Helsinki, Finland, are analysed. Cloud observations are obtained from a ceilometer and therefore we first develop algorithms to reliably detect cloud base, precipitation, and fog. These new algorithms are widely applicable for both operational use and research, such as in-cloud icing detection for the wind energy industry and for aviation. The cloud and radiation observations are compared to forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) run operationally and developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We develop methods to evaluate the skill of the cloud and radiation forecasts. These methods can potentially be extended to hundreds of sites globally. Over Helsinki, the measured global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is strongly influenced by its northerly location and the annual variation in cloudiness. Solar radiation forecast error is therefore larger in summer than in winter, but the relative error in the solar radiation forecast is more or less constant throughout the year. The mean overall bias in the GHI forecast is positive (8 W m−2). The observed and forecast distributions in cloud cover, at the spatial scales we are considering, are strongly skewed towards clear-sky and overcast situations. Cloud cover forecasts show more skill in winter when the cloud cover is predominantly overcast; in summer there are more clear-sky and broken cloud situations. A negative bias was found in forecast GHI for correctly forecast clear-sky cases and a positive bias in correctly forecast overcast cases. Temporal averaging improved the cloud cover forecast and hence decreased the solar radiation forecast error. The positive bias seen in overcast situations occurs when the model cloud has low values of liquid water path (LWP). We attribute this bias to the model having LWP values that are too low or the model optical properties for clouds with low LWP being incorrect.

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Potential Driving Factors on Surface Solar Radiation Trends over China in Recent Years

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5264 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Qiuyan Wang ◽

Hua Zhang ◽

Martin Wild

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Southern China ◽

Northern China ◽

Radiative Transfer Model ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Low Cloud ◽

Low Cloud Cover

<p>The annual mean surface solar radiation (SSR) trends under all-sky, clear-sky, all-sky-no-aerosol, and clear-sky-no-aerosol conditions as well as their possible causes are analyzed during 2005-2018 over China based on different satellite-retrieved datasets to determine the likely drivers of the trends. The results confirm clouds and aerosols as the major contributors to such all-sky SSR trends over China but playing different roles over sub-regions. Aerosol variations during this period result in a widespread brightening, while cloud effects show opposite trends from south to north. Moreover, aerosols contribute more to the increasing all-sky SSR trends over northern China, while clouds dominate the SSR declines over southern China. A radiative transfer model is used to explore the relative contributions of cloud cover from different cloud types to the all-types-of-cloud-cover-induced (ACC-induced) SSR trends during this period in four typical sub-regions over China. The simulations point out that the decreases in low-cloud-cover (LCC) over the North China Plain are the largest positive contributor of all cloud types to the marked annual and seasonal ACC-induced SSR increases, and the positive contributions from both high-cloud-cover (HCC) and LCC declines in summer and winter greatly contribute to the ACC-induced SSR increases over East China. The contributions from medium-low-cloud-cover (mid-LCC) and LCC variations dominate the ACC-caused SSR trends over southwestern and South China all year round, except for the larger HCC contribution in summer.</p>

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General cloud cover modifier for clear sky solar radiation models

10.1117/12.732472 ◽

2007 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Daryl R. Myers

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Clear Sky

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Potential Driving Factors on Surface Solar Radiation Trends over China in Recent Years

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13040704 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 704

Author(s):

Qiuyan Wang ◽

Hua Zhang ◽

Su Yang ◽

Qi Chen ◽

Xixun Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Southern China ◽

Northern China ◽

Radiative Transfer Model ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Low Cloud ◽

Low Cloud Cover

The annual mean surface solar radiation (SSR) trends under all-sky, clear-sky, all-sky-no-aerosol, and clear-sky-no-aerosol conditions as well as their possible causes are analyzed during 2005–2018 across China based on different satellite-retrieved datasets to determine the major drivers of the trends. The results confirm clouds and aerosols as the major contributors to such all-sky SSR trends over China but play differing roles over sub-regions. Aerosol variations during this period result in a widespread brightening, while cloud effects show opposite trends from south to north. Moreover, aerosols contribute more to the increasing all-sky SSR trends over northern China, while clouds dominate the SSR decline over southern China. A radiative transfer model is used to explore the relative contributions of cloud cover from different cloud types to the all-types-of-cloud-cover-induced (ACC-induced) SSR trends during this period in four typical sub-regions over China. The simulations point out that the decreases in low-cloud-cover (LCC) over the North China Plain are the largest positive contributor of all cloud types to the marked annual and seasonal ACC-induced SSR increases, and the positive contributions from both high-cloud-cover (HCC) and LCC declines in summer and winter greatly contribute to the ACC-induced SSR increases over East China. The contributions from medium-low-cloud-cover (mid-LCC) and LCC variations dominate the ACC-caused SSR trends over southwestern and South China all year round, except for the larger HCC contribution in summer.

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