Spatial-Temporal Variation of Snow Black Carbon Concentration in Snow Cover in Northeast China from 2001 to 2016 Based on Remote Sensing

The amount of black carbon (BC) on snow surface can significantly reduce snow surface albedo in the visible-light range and change the surface radiative forcing effect. Therefore, it is key to study regional and global climate changes to understand the BC concentration on snow. In this study, we simulated the BC concentration on the surface snow of northeast China using an asymptotic radiative transfer model. From 2001 to 2016, the BC concentration showed no significant increase, with an average increase of 82.104 ng/g compared with that in the early 21st century. The concentration of BC in December was the largest (1344.588 ng/g) and decreased in January and February (1248.619 ng/g and 983.635 ng/g, respectively). The high black carbon content centers were concentrated in the eastern and central regions with dense populations and concentrated industries, with a concentration above 1200 ng/g, while the BC concentration in the southwest region with less human activities was the lowest (below 850 ng/g), which indicates that human activities played an important role in snow BC pollution. Notably, Heilongjiang province has the highest concentration, which may be related to its atmospheric stability in winter. These findings suggest that the BC pollution in northeast China has been aggravated from 2001 to 2016. It is estimated that the snow surface albedo will decrease by 16.448% due to the BC pollution of snow in northeast China. The problem of radiative forcing caused by black carbon to snow reflectivity cannot be ignored.

Re-Estimation of Agricultural Production Efficiency in China under the Dual Constraints of Climate Change and Resource Environment: Spatial Imbalance and Convergence

Climate change and farmland environmental pollution have put greater pressure on the sustainability of agricultural production. Based on the provincial panel data of mainland China from 1978 to 2018, climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and sunshine hours are included into the input indicators, and agricultural non-point source pollution and carbon emissions are taken as undesirable outputs, the agricultural production efficiency (APE) under the dual constraints of climate change and the resource environment was estimated by the super slacks-based measure (SBM)-undesirable model. On the basis of the trajectory of the imbalanced spatiotemporal evolution of APE shown by Kernel density estimation and the standard deviational ellipse (SDE)–center of gravity (COG) transfer model, the spatial convergence model was used to test the convergence and differentiation characteristics of APE. Under the dual constraints, APE presents a “bimodal” distribution with a stable increase in fluctuation, but it is still at a generally low level and does not show polarization, among which the APE in the northeast region is the highest. The COG of APE tends to transfer towards the northeast, and the coverage of the SDE is shrinking, so the overall spatial pattern is characterized by a tendency of clustering towards the north in the north-south direction and a tendency of imbalance in the east-west direction. APE has significant spatial convergence, and there is a trend of “latecomer catching-up” in low-efficiency regions. The introduction of spatial correlation accelerates the convergence rate and shortens the convergence period. The convergence rate is the highest in the central and western regions, followed by that in the northeastern region, and the convergence rate is the lowest in the eastern region. In addition, the convergence rate in different time periods has a phase change. The process of improving the quality and efficiency of agricultural production requires enhancing the adaptability of climate change, balancing the carrying capacity of the resource environment, and strengthening inter-regional cooperation and linkage in the field of agriculture.

Strategies for the Efficient Estimation of Soil Moisture through Spectroscopy: Sensitive Wavelength Algorithm, Spectral Resampling and Signal-to-Noise Ratio Selection

It is found that the remote sensing parameters such as spectral range, spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio directly affect the estimation accuracy of soil moisture content. However, the lack of research on the relationship between the parameters and estimation accuracy restricts the prolongation of application. Therefore, this study took the demand for this application as the foothold for developing spectrometry. Firstly, a method based on sensitivity analysis of soil radiative transfer model-successive projection algorithm (SA-SPA) was proposed to select sensitive wavelengths. Then, the spectral resampling method was used to select the best spectral resolution in the corresponding sensitive wavelengths. Finally, the noise-free spectral data simulated by the soil radiative transfer model was added with Gaussian random noise to change the signal-to-noise ratio, so as to explore the influence of signal-to-noise ratio on the estimation accuracy. The research results show that the estimation accuracy obtained through the SA-SPA (RMSEP < 12.1 g kg−1) is generally superior to that from full-spectrum data (RMSEP < 14 g kg−1). At selected sensitive wavelengths, the best spectral resolution is 34 nm, and the applicable signal-to-noise ratio ranges from 150 to 350. This study provides technical support for the efficient estimation of soil moisture content and the development of spectrometry, which comprehensively considers the common influence of spectral range, spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio on the estimation accuracy of soil moisture content.

The Use of Composite GOES-R Satellite Imagery to Evaluate a TC Intensity and Vortex Structure Forecast by an FV3GFS-Based Hurricane Forecast Model

The HAFS model is an effort under the NGGPS and UFS initiatives to create the next generation of hurricane prediction and analysis system based on FV3-GFS. It has been validated extensively using traditional verification indicators such as tracker error and biases, intensity error and biases, and the radii of gale, damaging and hurricane strength winds. While satellite images have been used to verify hurricane model forecasts, they have not been used on HAFS. The community radiative transfer model CRTM is used to generate model synthetic satellite images from HAFS model forecast state variables. The 24 forecast snapshots in the mature stage of hurricane Dorian in 2019 are used to generate a composite model synthetic GOES-R infrared brightness image. The composite synthetic image is compared to the corresponding composite image generated from the observed GOES-R data, to evaluate the model forecast TC vortex intensity, size, and asymmetric structure. Results show that the HAFS forecast TC Dorian agrees reasonably well with the observation, but the forecast intensity is weaker, its overall vortex size smaller, and the radii of its eye and maximum winds larger than the observed. The evaluation results can be used to further improve the model. While these results are consistent with those obtained by traditional verification methods, evaluations based on composite satellite images provide an additional benefit with richer information because they have near-real-times spatially and temporally continuous high-resolution data with global coverage. Composite satellite infrared images could be used routinely to supplement traditional verification methods in the HAFS and other hurricane model evaluations. Note since this study only evaluated one hurricane, the above conclusions are only applicable to the model behavior of the mature stage of hurricane Dorian in 2019, and caution is needed to extend these conclusions to expect model biases in predicting other TCs. Nevertheless, the consistency between the evaluation using composite satellite images and the traditional metrics, of hurricane Dorian, shows that this method has the potential to be applied to other storms in future studies.