Optimal policy choice under uncertainty

1975 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Brennan ◽  
Thomas McGuire
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles F. Manski

AbstractThis paper presents my thinking and concerns about formation of COVID-19 policy. Policy formation must cope with substantial uncertainties about the nature of the disease, the dynamics of transmission, and behavioral responses. Data uncertainties limit our knowledge of the past trajectory and current state of the pandemic. Data and modeling uncertainties limit our ability to predict the impacts of alternative policies. I explain why current epidemiological and macroeconomic modeling cannot deliver realistically optimal policy. I describe my recent work quantifying basic data uncertainties that make policy analysis difficult. I discuss approaches for policy choice under uncertainty and suggest adaptive policy diversification.


2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joydeep Bhattacharya ◽  
Rajesh Singh

In this paper, we study a decentralized monetary economy with a specified set of markets, rules of trade, an equilibrium concept, and a restricted set of policies and derive a set of equilibrium (monetary) allocations generated by these policies. Next we set up a simpler constrained planning problem in which we restrict the planner to choose from a set that contains the set of equilibrium allocations in the decentralized economy. If there is a government policy that allows the decentralized economy to achieve the constrained planner's allocation, then it is the optimal policy choice. To illustrate the power of such analyses, we solve such planning problems in three monetary environments with limited communication. The upshot is that solving constrained planning problems is potentially an extremely “efficient” (easy and quick) way of deriving optimal policies for the corresponding decentralized economies.


1990 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Harrison ◽  
David Holtgrave ◽  
J. Carlos Rivero

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