An information theoretic technique to design belief network based expert systems

1996 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumit Sarkar ◽  
Ram S. Sriram ◽  
Shibu Joykutty ◽  
Ishwar Murthy
Author(s):  
Viktor Wegmayr ◽  
Joachim M. Buhmann

Abstract White matter tractography, based on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images, is currently the only available in vivo method to gather information on the structural brain connectivity. The low resolution of diffusion MRI data suggests to employ probabilistic methods for streamline reconstruction, i.e., for fiber crossings. We propose a general probabilistic model for spherical regression based on the Fisher-von-Mises distribution, which efficiently estimates maximum entropy posteriors of local streamline directions with machine learning methods. The optimal precision of posteriors for streamlines is determined by an information-theoretic technique, the expected log-posterior agreement concept. It relies on the requirement that the posterior distributions of streamlines, inferred on retest measurements of the same subject, should yield stable results within the precision determined by the noise level of the data source.


1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (02) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Herskovits ◽  
G. F. Cooper

AbstractBayesian belief networks provide an intuitive and concise means of representing probabilistic relationships among the variables in expert systems. A major drawback to this methodology is its computational complexity. We present an introduction to belief networks, and describe methods for precomputing, or caching, part of a belief network based on metrics of probability and expected utility. These algorithms are examples of a general method for decreasing expected running time for probabilistic inference.We first present the necessary background, and then present algorithms for producing caches based on metrics of expected probability and expected utility. We show how these algorithms can be applied to a moderately complex belief network, and present directions for future research.


2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Drakakis

In the game of Betweenies, the player is dealt two cards out of a deck and bets on the probability that the third card to be dealt will have a numerical value in between the values of the first two cards. In this work, we present the exact rules of the two main versions of the game, and we study the optimal betting strategies. After discussing the shortcomings of the direct approach, we introduce an information-theoretic technique, Kelly's criterion, which basically maximizes the expected log-return of the bet: we offer an overview, discuss feasibility issues, and analyze the strategies it suggests. We also provide some gameplay simulations.


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