Complexities in predicting mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle response to climate change

2022 ◽  
pp. 31-54
Author(s):  
Barbara J. Bentz ◽  
E. Matthew Hansen ◽  
Marianne Davenport ◽  
David Soderberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Pine Beetle

Detecting subtle change from dense Landsat time series: Case studies of mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle disturbance

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 112560
Author(s):  
Su Ye ◽  
John Rogan ◽  
Zhe Zhu ◽  
Todd J. Hawbaker ◽  
Sarah J. Hart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Subtle Change ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Spruce Beetle ◽  
Pine Beetle

scholarly journals The Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in the Black Hills, South Dakota: The Consequences of Long Term Fire Policy, Climate Change and the Use of Remote Sensing to Enhance Mitigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Mullen ◽  
Fei Yuan ◽  
Martin Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Black Hills ◽  
Fire Policy ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Ponderosa Pine Forest

The recent and intense outbreak (first decade of 2000s) of the mountain pine beetle in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming, which impacted over 33% of the 1.2 million acre (486,000 ha) Black Hills National Forest, illustrates what can occur when forest management practices intersect with natural climatic oscillations and climate change to create the “perfect storm” in a region where the physical environment sets the stage for a plethora of economic activities ranging from extractive industries to tourism. This study evaluates the potential of WorldView-2 satellite imagery for green-attacked tree detection in the ponderosa pine forest of the Black Hills, USA. It also discusses the consequences of long term fire policy and climate change, and the use of remote sensing technology to enhance mitigation. It was found that the near-infrared one (band 7) of WorldView-2 imagery had the highest influence on the green-attack classification. The Random Forest classification produced the best results when transferred to the independent dataset, whereas the Logistic Regression models consistently yielded the highest accuracies when cross-validated with the training data. Lessons learned include: (1) utilizing recent advances in remote sensing technologies, most notably the use of WorldView-2 data, to assist in more effectively implementing mitigation measures during an epidemic, and (2) implementing pre-emptive thinning strategies; both of which can be applied elsewhere in the American West to more effectively blunt or preclude the consequences of a mountain pine beetle outbreak on an existing ponderosa pine forest. 

scholarly journals Landscape Topoedaphic Features Create Refugia from Drought and Insect Disturbance in a Lodgepole and Whitebark Pine Forest

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Cartwright
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Pine Forest ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Pine Forests ◽  
Whitebark Pine ◽  
Insect Outbreaks ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle

Droughts and insect outbreaks are primary disturbance processes linking climate change to tree mortality in western North America. Refugia from these disturbances—locations where impacts are less severe relative to the surrounding landscape—may be priorities for conservation, restoration, and monitoring. In this study, hypotheses concerning physical and biological processes supporting refugia were investigated by modelling the landscape controls on disturbance refugia that were identified using remotely sensed vegetation indicators. Refugia were identified at 30-m resolution using anomalies of Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Moisture Index in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests in southern Oregon, USA, in 2001 (a single-year drought with no insect outbreak) and 2009 (during a multi-year drought and severe outbreak of mountain pine beetle). Landscape controls on refugia (topographic, soil, and forest characteristics) were modeled using boosted regression trees. Landscape characteristics better explained and predicted refugia locations in 2009, when forest impacts were greater, than in 2001. Refugia in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests were generally associated with topographically shaded slopes, convergent environments such as valleys, areas of relatively low soil bulk density, and in thinner forest stands. In whitebark pine forest, refugia were associated with riparian areas along headwater streams. Spatial patterns in evapotranspiration, snowmelt dynamics, soil water storage, and drought-tolerance and insect-resistance abilities may help create refugia from drought and mountain pine beetle. Identification of the landscape characteristics supporting refugia can help forest managers target conservation resources in an era of climate-change exacerbation of droughts and insect outbreaks.

scholarly journals The ecological interaction of the mountain pine beetle and jack pine budworm in the boreal forest

2010 ◽  
Vol 86 (6) ◽  
pp. 766-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsay J. Colgan ◽  
Nadir Erbilgin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Dendroctonus Ponderosae ◽  
Jack Pine ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Choristoneura Pinus ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Jack Pine Budworm ◽  
Choristoneura Pinus Pinus

As climate change facilitates the range and host expansion of insect species into new ecosystems, the development of newstrategies for managing and preventing biological invasion is receiving considerable interest. In recent years, the range ofthe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) has expanded from lodgepole pine-dominated forests eastof the Rocky Mountains into lodgepole x jack pine hybrid forest of western Alberta, and may soon invade jack pine forestsof the boreal. Our understanding of factors contributing colonization of jack pine by mountain pine beetle is far fromcomplete and several factors may limit its spread in these forests, including tree resistance and competitors. Among these,the jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus pinus Freeman) is one of the most important insect enemies of jack pine andan outbreak defoliator that potentially weakens jack pine trees, which may make them more susceptible to MPB attacks.To develop effective management strategies in the face of the short-run impacts of climate change, we need an in-depthunderstanding of factors influencing establishment and survival of the beetle in jack pine forests.Key words: Choristoneura pinus pinus, Dendroctonus ponderosae, jack pine, range expansion, invasion biology, climatechange in the boreal forest, conifer-mediated interactions, tree induced defences, tripartite interactions

Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change

Nature ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 452 (7190) ◽  
pp. 987-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. Kurz ◽  
C. C. Dymond ◽  
G. Stinson ◽  
G. J. Rampley ◽  
E. T. Neilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle

scholarly journals Improving Mountain Pine Beetle Survival Predictions Using Multi-Year Temperatures Across the Western USA

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bone ◽  
Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Western Usa ◽  
Mountain Pine ◽  
Pine Beetle ◽  
Temperature Observations

Global climate change has led to an increase in large-scale bark beetle outbreaks in forests around the world, resulting in significant impacts to forest ecosystems, timber economies, and forest-dependent communities. As such, prediction models that utilize temperature for estimating future bark beetle locations and consequential tree mortality are critical for informing forest management decision-making in an attempt to mitigate and adapt to pending and current outbreaks. This is especially true for physiological models that account for the effects of overwinter temperatures on bark beetle survival, as seasonal temperatures, specifically during winter months, exert the greatest impact on bark beetle mortality during various stages of life cycle development. Yet, how temperature observations are used to predict bark beetle survival can significantly under- or over-estimate the role that temperature variability plays in annual tree mortality, especially under current climate change trajectories. This study evaluates how representations of winter temperature influence bark beetle survival estimates. Using the recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) across the western USA as a case study, single-year to decade-long winter temperature averages were used as inputs into a physiological beetle survival prediction model, the results of which were compared against beetle-induced tree mortality observations using temporal autoregressive models. Results show that using longer-term survival averages of seven to ten years significantly increases the likelihood that temperature alone can predict general levels of beetle survival and hence beetle-induced mortality. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the role of long-term temperature observations when forecasting bark beetle outbreaks, and that year-to-year temperature variability may be constrained in predicting beetle survival during outbreak periods.

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