scholarly journals Disaster prediction and civil preparedness

2022 ◽  
pp. 77-95
Author(s):  
Efraim Laor ◽  
Benedetto De Vivo
Keyword(s):  
2018 ◽  
Vol 189 ◽  
pp. 10006
Author(s):  
Michael M. Orozco ◽  
Jonathan M. Caballero

Disaster prediction devices for early warning system are used by many countries for disaster awareness. This study developed smart disaster prediction application using microcontrollers and sensors to analyze the river water level for flood using flood risk analytics. Specifically, it monitors the river water level, water pressure and rain fallusing microcontroller, applying statistical modeling algorithms for river flood prediction, and monitor flood in a web-based system with SMS notification and alarm to the community as an early warning. The researchers used the system development method to measure the prototype feasibility study. The researchers applied the statistical modeling algorithm as the data can be observed from time to time or on a daily basis for the predictive analytics. Based on the 7-days observation result, rainfall resulted in precipitation average of 10.96 mm, water pressure with an average of 40.92 pound per square inch (psi) and water level averaged 138.78 cm. The tropical depression during the 7 days’observation reflected the average data result from the sensors as the target of the study. The result of the prototype device used the City Disaster Risk and Reduction management office (CDRRMO) as history logs for a flood risk and it was proven accurate which makes a good use for disaster prediction.


1986 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 27-30
Author(s):  
Paul F. Krumpe

Prediction of natural phenomena which have the potential for causing disasters is an extremely difficult proposition both from a scientific and socio-political perspective. Experience has shown repeatedly our inability to predict events leading to disasters. Geophysical predictions, in order to have maximum utility, must specify the date, time, place and magnitude of physical events. In order to meet the minimum criteria for effectiveness and credibility, predictions must be stated within limits which are useful to the public and can be practically applied. Perhaps the best way to deal with the inevitable conflicts and uncertainties associated with the problem of disaster prediction is to either not make such pronouncements or issue forecasts based on the likelihood or probability of event occurrence. In the latter case it is best to provide simplified thresholds for various threat levels and suggest appropriate actions necessary to avert the impacts of an event.


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