Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction

2021 ◽  
pp. 103650
Author(s):  
Salvatore Iacoletti ◽  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Carmine Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Rupture Time ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Fault Interaction ◽  
Hazard Modeling

A Hybrid Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Model for Canterbury, New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 87 (6) ◽  
pp. 1311-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger ◽  
David A. Rhoades ◽  
Graeme H. McVerry
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Tectonic styles of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling"

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Pondrelli ◽  
Francesco Visini ◽  
Andrea Rovida ◽  
Vera D'Amico ◽  
Bruno Pace ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Modeling ◽  
Supplementary Material

The Seismic Hazard Implications of Declustering and Poisson Assumptions Inferred from a Fully Time-Dependent Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward H. Field ◽  
Kevin R. Milner ◽  
Nicolas Luco
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Poisson Process ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
True Time

ABSTRACT We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3-ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long-term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumption in classic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We use 500,000 yr, M ≥ 2.5 synthetic catalogs to address this question, for which UCERF3-ETAS exhibits realistic spatiotemporal clustering effects (e.g., aftershocks). We find that Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering, used in the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models, lowers 2% in 50 yr and risk-targeted ground-motion hazard metrics by about 4% on average (compared with the full time-dependent [TD] model), with the reduction being 5% at 40% in 50 yr ground motions. Keeping all earthquakes and treating them as a Poisson process increases these same hazard metrics by about 3%–12%, on average, due to the removal of relatively quiet time periods in the full TD model. In the interest of model simplification, bias minimization, and consideration of the probabilities of multiple exceedances, we agree with others (Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014) that we are better off keeping aftershocks and treating them as a Poisson process rather than removing them from hazard consideration via declustering. Honoring the true time dependence, however, will likely be important for other hazard and risk metrics, and this study further exemplifies how this can now be evaluated more extensively.

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