Simultaneous hedging strategy for price and volume risks in electricity businesses using energy and weather derivatives

Purpose – The application of weather derivatives in hedging crop yield risk is gaining more interest. However, the further development of weather derivatives – particularly exchange-traded – in the agricultural sector has been impeded by concerns over their hedging performance. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to derive the optimal hedging strategy and evaluate hedging effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – This framework incorporates a stochastic temperature model, a crop yield model, a risk-neutral pricing method and a profit optimization procedure. Based on a large number of simulated scenarios, the authors study crop yield hedge for a future year. The authors allow the hedger to choose from different types of exchange-traded weather derivatives, and examine the impact of various factors on the optimal hedging strategy. Findings – The analysis shows that hedging objective, pricing method and geographical location of the hedged exposure all play important roles in choosing the best hedging strategy and assessing hedging effectiveness. Originality/value – This framework is forward-looking, because it focusses on the crop yield hedge for a future year rather than on the historical hedging effectiveness often studied in literature. It utilizes the most up-to-date information related to temperature and crop yield, and hence produces a hedging strategy which is more relevant to the year under consideration.

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Strategi Pengelolaan Risiko dan Peningkatan Kualitas Pengelolaan Kas Negara

Indonesian Treasury Review Jurnal Perbendaharaan Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik ◽

10.33105/itrev.v2i2.26 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 43-54

Author(s):

Agung Mulyono

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Financial Risk ◽

Vector Autoregression ◽

Secondary Market ◽

Key Factors ◽

Bond Price ◽

Hedging Strategy ◽

Foreign Loan ◽

Term Operation ◽

Loan Interest Rates

Cash management is one of treasury’s main functions in which has a potential financial risk. A potential financial risk emerges when State Treasurer manages cash surplus and or/ shortages in order to maintain optimum liquidity. By applying Vector Autoregression (VAR) system on empirical data provided by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia, we found that currency value flunctuation is a significant factor for repayment value of foreign loan. Interest rates and amount of government’s bond held by foreign investors are also variables impacted on government’s bond price movement in secondary market. Currency value flunctuation and price of government’s bond in secondary market are the key factors that have to be considered by State Treasurer (BUN) in managing state’s money. Hedging strategy by using derivatif product is possible to be utilized by State Treasurer (BUN) due to it’s flexibility for short-term operation. Abstrak Pengelolaan kas negara merupakan salah satu fungsi pokok perbendaharaan yang dalam proses pelaksanaannya menyimpan potensi berbagai risiko keuangan. Risiko keuangan, khususnya dalam investasi berpotensi muncul ketika Bendahara Umum Negara (BUN) melakukan kegiatan pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas dalam rangka menjamin ketersediaan dan optimalisasi kas. Dengan menggunakan analisis Vector Autoregression (VAR) atas data empiris yang diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia dan Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia, penulis menemukan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang merupakan faktor yang signifikan terhadap besaran pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah. Tingkat suku bunga acuan dan pergerakan besaran kepemilikan SUN oleh investor asing juga merupakan variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder. Fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang dan pergerakan harga SUN di pasar sekunder menjadi faktor penting dalam pelaksanaan investasi yang dilakukan BUN dalam rangka pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, strategi pengelolaan risiko atau hedging dengan menggunakan produk-produk derivatif dalam pengelolaan kelebihan dan/ kekurangan kas jangka pendek – menengah sangat dimungkinkan karena sifat instrumen derivatif yang fleksibel.

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