Identifying the Asymmetric Channel of Crude Oil Risk Pass-Through to Macro Economy: Based on Crude Oil Attributes

The impact channel of crude oil market risk on the macroeconomy is highly related to oil attributes. This paper uses a stepwise test method with dummy variables to identify the channel effect of commodity market risk as well as financial market risk and explore the characteristics of the channel effect in different periods dominated by different oil attributes. Furthermore, this paper investigates the asymmetric characteristics of the channel effect under the condition of crude oil returns heterogeneity. The empirical results show that: First, commodity market risk, as well as financial market risk plays a channel role in the impact of crude oil market risk on the macroeconomic operation. Second, there is a significant difference in the ability of the commodity market and financial market to cope with shocks of crude oil market risk in periods dominated by different attributes. During the period dominated by the commodity attribute of oil, both commodity market and financial market play the role of “risk buffer”; during the period dominated by dual attributes of oil, the commodity market risk plays the role of “risk buffer”, while the financial market risk plays the role of “magnifier” of the crude oil market risk. Third, the channel effect pattern and degree of commodity market risk and financial market risk are significantly asymmetric.

Concept of searching for anchor goods based on the study of commodity indices

The article is devoted to the search for anchor goods — goods whose prices are forming for the prices of groups of goods. The role of the desired anchor product is similar to the role of the anchor currency. The identification of such anchors will allow us to understand the pricing structure, which is presumably of a self-affinity nature. The authors believe that there are several options for why a particular product becomes an anchor: historical, cultural or economic. To identify the main requirements for the anchor product, the behavior and dynamics of price changes of goods included in the CRB index were analyzed. Attention to this index is due, firstly, to its complex but significant role in setting exchange rates, and secondly, its role in analyzing world markets. The CRB index is an indicator of trends in the global commodity market. It displays all the movements and changes in the structure of the world commodity market. The characteristic patterns in the behavior of the goods in question are revealed. Typical phase portraits of their relational series for CRB index products have been revealed. The goods included in the CRB index were regrouped according to the similarity of their behavior relative to each other. Four groups were obtained, within each of which phase portraits of relational time series based on a pair of goods have a similar appearance. Reference phase portraits are described. The basic rules of the anchor product search are formulated based on the study of goods included in the selected commodity index. The conceptual proposals for the search for anchor goods using commodity indexes are formulated Based on the proposed approach, some products were investigated and their ability to play the role of an anchor was evaluated.

Illustrating the Grondona System in Operation

While working in Japan during the 1990s, one of the authors took the opportunity to collect data on past Japanese commodity imports and recent commodity market prices and to use them to simulate how a CRD would have operated over the decade 1987 – 1996 using a computer spreadsheet. The graphs showing the results are easy to understand: the CRD would have bought reserves when Yen prices were falling and sold them when Yen prices were rising, thereby exerting a stabilizing influence on the prices and quantities of these imported commodities. In parallel, by expanding and contracting the money supply counter-cyclically, the system would have helped to stabilize the overall economy.

Para-Social Interaction Analysis of Valentino Virtual Spokesperson based on Weibo Data and Search Popularity

Brand image is one of the most important factors influencing the competitiveness of the commodity market. In order to reduce the negative impact of potential scandals of celebrity spokespersons, Valentino began to use a virtual spokesperson named noonoouri for promotion. In this context, we first describe the application model of Valentino's virtual spokesperson. Then, based on the Valentino Weibo data we collected and Google search popularity, we analyzed the impact of virtual spokespersons on the para-social interaction between brands and consumers. Finally, according to the analysis conclusion of the impact of Valentino's virtual spokesperson in the para-social interaction, a corresponding marketing-competitive brand image promotion proposal is put forward.

A Dominant Position as a Sign of Strategic Importance of an Economic Society

The paper analyzes regulatory legal acts governing implementation of transactions with securities, stakes, property or rights in relation to business entities that occupy a dominant position in a certain commodity market. The paper examines the issues related to the possibility of recognizing a dominant position as a criterion for classifying an economic society as an economic society of strategic importance for ensuring the country’s defense and state security (hereinafter: strategic importance) using as an example legislative restrictions on implementation of economic concentration in relation to organizations, providing communication services, port services, as well as in relation to natural monopolies. Based on the results of the study, a conclusion is made about the validity of modern approaches to establishing strategic importance of an economic society through the concept of a dominant position that over time can be transformed to use the concept of a dominant position as an independent criterion for establishing strategic importance of an economic society.

Commodity Market Prices and Its Impact on Exchange Rate of Pakistan

Pakistan’s economy and exchange rate has experienced many ups and downs in the last ten years. The exchange rate has depreciated from Rs.59/$ to Rs.104/$. This is causing a massive dent to Pakistan economy. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan is consistently facing a current account deficit for the last several years and a depreciated currency is one of the main reasons for the deficit. This study analyzes the relationship between the commodity market prices and exchange rates in Pakistan both in long and in short run. This research utilized the monthly data for the past ten years from Jan-2006 to Dec-2015. The results are quite surprising because in Pakistan, none of the prices of the commodities (i-e oil and gold) have short term relationship with the exchange rate of Pakistan. This study also does not find any long-term relationship among the variables.

Market development of local peatland commodities to support successful peatland restoration

Peatland degradation and community livelihood are often driven by market forces. Successful peatland restoration including community livelihood improvement programs is therefore highly correlated with market development of various local peatland commodities that are introduced to replace fire-using farming activities. However, since the development of local peatland commodities is often under subsistence marketplaces, investigation of their market is not attractive and has received little attention. This paper investigates the market structure of the local peatland commodities developed by the local community under peatland livelihood programs using Rapid Market Appraisal (RMA) technique and market structure analysis to quickly draw challenges and opportunities of market development of peatland commodities. We also analyze a business model applied by the local community, particularly their strategy to adapt to market dynamics and to secure market competition. The information is essential to serve as a basis for formulating appropriate interventions needed to develop a more established market of local peatland commodities, which as a consequence will prevent peat forest conversion. The investigation finds that at least three types of peatland commodity market structures are evolving in the research site. Each of them has different challenges and needs different interventions to make the livelihood programs more sustainable. Meanwhile, the local community is more oriented towards sales than the marketing of peatland products. They have not prepared a specific strategy yet to adapt to and win the dynamic market competition. It needs significant efforts to change its business culture if relevant stakeholders intend to develop the local peatland commodity market as a part of peatland restoration and community livelihood improvement programs.