scholarly journals The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis

Energy ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 581-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Razmi ◽  
M. Azali ◽  
Lee Chin ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah
Author(s):  
Eric I. Otoakhia

This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil price shocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the Structural Vector Autoregressive model to analyse monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12. The impulse response analysis showed that for pre and post-crisis periods, oil price shocks have a positive impact on CPI. This impact was an insignificant direct momentary increase in pre-crisis CPI before dissipating. Conversely, the impact on post crisis CPI response tends to be stable and long-lasting starting from the third month. The confidence bands for the post crisis CPI are large, indicating the long-lasting positive response in the CPI pose no significant threat to price stability in the long run horizon. In conclusion, CPI response varies in terms of intensity for pre and post crisis periods. In terms of level of significance, the effect of the shocks on CPI is transient and insignificant in both periods. The post crisis oil price shock is not a significant channel that created price instability in Nigeria after the crisis and this study recommend partial deregulation of energy price should be maintained. Establishing oil price –inflation pass-through, external shocks like financial crisis should be accounted for.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246886
Author(s):  
Zaghum Umar ◽  
Mariya Gubareva ◽  
Muhammad Naeem ◽  
Ayesha Akhter

This paper studies the connectedness between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities. Our sample period ranges from January 2002 to July 2020, covering the three global crises; Global Financial Crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis. We employ Granger causality tests, and the static and dynamic connectedness spillover index methodology. We find that the shocks in oil prices are Granger-caused mainly by price changes of grains, live cattle, and wheat, while supply shock granger causes variations mostly in grain prices. We find that, from the point of view of static connectedness, for both, price and volatility spillovers, the livestock is the largest transmitter, while the lean hogs are the major receiver. Our dynamic analysis evidences that connectedness increases during the financial crisis period. Our results are potentially useful for investors, portfolios managers and policy makers.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (270) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deren Unalmis ◽  
Ibrahim Unalmis ◽  
D. Filiz Unsal ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deren Unalmis ◽  
Ibrahim Unalmis ◽  
Derya Filiz Unsal

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 650-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Tripati Rao ◽  
Saurabh Goyal

Commodity and oil price fluctuations have significant bearing on domestic macroeconomic performance and macroeconomic policymaking of an emerging economy. The article explores the impact of non-energy commodity and oil price fluctuations on output, inflation and real exchange rate (RER) in India; and commodity and oil constituting sizeable imports. The empirical analysis carried out through vector error correction model (VECM) for the post-liberalization period 1991–2014 clearly points out that commodity and oil price shocks have a significant impact on the variation in output and prices accounting for RER adjustment and the role of a developed financial market (private credit). The RER adjusts to commodity and oil price shocks, accounting for foreign exchange reserves and financial markets (private credit). The impulse response functions indicate that one standard deviation shock in commodity and oil price persists for three to eight quarters over domestic prices and output. While these results point to lessening of commodity and oil imports through a series of medium and long-term structural-cum-policy reform measures, in the immediate, they also lend a role of intervention by monetary authority (central bank) in pursuit of inflation targeting. Conjointly, pursuance of countercyclical fiscal policy to stabilize domestic output and prices in short run are called for.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document