An approach for forecasting the Onion Price volatility in Indian Wholesale Markets using hybrid GARCH-LSTM Deep learning models

The fluctuations in the Onion prices have led to political and economic ramifications in countries such as India. In this study, we intend to estimate and then forecast the price volatility of Onion sales prices in major Indian wholesale markets. Initially, we take daily price data from major vegetable wholesale markets across India and simulate them to compute corresponding daily conditional volatilities using the traditional GARCH method. We then forecast the volatilities for the upcoming 10,15 and 21 days using the same traditional GARCH method and compare its forecasting accuracy with recent AI-led models. According to our comparisons, the deep learning-based LSTM model with various configurations provides superior results when compared to other traditional models with the highest accuracy in more than 70% of the cases. We expect that the given study could help the policymakers in managing sufficient buffer stock levels and the food supply chain stakeholders in hedging against the overall market risks due to the fluctuations in prices.

Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines

In a field experiment that constructs a randomized credit limit shock, participants borrow to spend 11 cents on the dollar in the first quarter and 28 cents by the third year. Effects extend to those far from the limit, those who had the new limits as available credit, and those with a liquid asset buffer. In the short-run, flexible and installment contracts are used in tandem, with unconstrained using installments more. Long-run borrowing is predominantly using installments. Near limits, participants borrow when credit expands but save out of constraints when limits are tight. Findings support a buffer-stock interpretation emphasizing precautionary saving. (JEL C93, E21, G21, G51, O12, O16)

Past Response to Grondona System

The Grondona system was sufficiently well-known during the 1950s to be the subject of debate in the British Parliament in 1958, when it was vigorously praised by supporters, as well as in the press. Examples of this support are given in this chapter, which show how those who took the time to study the Grondona system recognized its unique strengths and strongly recommended its adoption by government. Unfortunately, when the British government finally set up a committee in 1976 to consider the problem of commodity price instability, it was chaired by a long-term advocate of the international buffer-stock system advocated by UNCTAD. As Grondona predicted, the result was that the committee's report contained no substantive criticism of his system but merely reiterated the government's existing policy of continuing participation in UNCTAD negotiations – to no effect nearly half a century later.

Benjamin Graham on Buffer Stocks

Surprisingly, Benjamin Graham, the acknowledged “Father of Value Investing”, considered his most important work to be the invention of the Commodity Reserve Currency Plan during the 1930s and 1940s. Previous studies of the Plan have overlooked the fact that, of its three main components (buffer stocks, price stability and currency–backing), Graham regarded the first as the most important and the other two as “secondary” or “subsidiary”. By focusing on the buffer–stock aspect, we demonstrate, first, the breadth and depth of Graham’s overall conception in terms of both micro– and macro-economics and, second, the considerable overlap with Keynes’s ideas developed around the same time, which are manifested particularly in their common conclusion that the inefficiency of commodity markets could be rectified only by government intervention. We also comment on Mehrling’s assessment of Graham as “not any kind of economist at all” (JHET, 2011).

RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM INFORMASI PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN (CONTROL BUFFER STOCK) UNTUK EFISIENSI KEWIRAUSAHAAN PENJUALAN KOPI PADA SOFT COFFEE

Tujuan penelitian ini untuk merancang dan mengimplementasikan sistem informasi Pengendalian Persediaan Kopi sebagai alat kontrol pembelian bahan baku dalam menjalankan kegiatan usaha agar berjalan secara efisien dan mampu menghasilkan laba yang optimal. Metode yang digunakan Buffer Stock, Reorder Point Dan Economic Order Quantity Pada Soft Coffee. Hasil pengujian Reorder Point (ROP) dan Safety Stock maka nilai ROP Kopi Arabika sebesar 21 Pak, Kopi Robusta sebesar 20 Pak, Kopi Liberika sebesar 22 Pak dan Kopi Ekselsa sebesar 21 Pak, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa hasil perancangan sistem informasi pengendalian persediaan dapat diimplementasikan untuk efisiensi kewirausahaan penjualan kopi.

Buffer Stock Operations and Well-Being: The Case of Smallholder Farmers in Ghana

This study investigates the possible causal relationship between buffer stock operations in Ghanaian agriculture and the well-being of smallholder farmers in a developing world setting. We analyze the differences in the objective and subjective well-being of smallholder farmers who do or do not participate in a buffer stock price stabilization policy initiative, using self-reported assessments of 507 farmers. We adopt a two-stage least square instrumental variable estimation to account for possible endogeneity. Our results provide evidence that participation in buffer stock operations improves the objective and subjective well-being of smallholder farmers by 20% and 15%, respectively. Also, with estimated coefficient of 1.033, we find a significant and robust relationship between objective well-being and subjective well-being among smallholder farmers. This relationship implies that improving objective well-being enhances the subjective well-being of the farmers. We also find that the activities of intermediaries decrease both the objective and subjective well-being of farmers. This study demonstrates that economic, social, and environmental aspects of agricultural life could constitute priorities for public policy in improving well-being, given their strong correlation with the well-being of farmers. Based on the results of this study, we provide a better understanding, which may aid policy-makers, that public buffer stockholding operations policy is a viable tool for improving the well-being of smallholder farmers in a developing country.

The Self-Constrained Hand-to-Mouth

Many studies have shown that consumption responds to the arrival of predictable income (excess sensitivity). This paper uses a buffer stock model of consumption to understand what causes excess sensitivity and to test which parametrization is consistent with empirical excess sensitivity estimates. Using high frequency granular data from a personal finance app, it finds that while liquidity constraints are a proximate cause, preferences are the ultimate cause of excess sensitivity. Furthermore, it finds that for feasible parameters, a quasi hyperbolic version of the model is more consistent with the level of excess sensitivity relative to a standard exponential model.

A New Maintenance Optimization Model Based on Three-Stage Time Delay for Series Intelligent System with Intermediate Buffer

For the maintenance problem of intelligent series system with buffer stock, a preventive maintenance model based on the threestage time delay theory is proposed. Firstly, the intelligent series system is decomposed into n − 1 virtual series systems by using approximate decomposition method. The impact factor is introduced to establish the failure rate and maintenance rate model of each virtual machine. Secondly, a preventive maintenance model based on the three-stage time delay theory is proposed for each virtual series system. The machine state from normal operation to failure stage is divided into three steps: initial defect, serious defect, and fault, and different distribution functions are defined in different stages to simulate the degradation process of the machine. Based on the three-stage time delay theory, the machine cost ratio model was established by taking the machine monitoring time and buffer stock as decision variables and the minimum unit time cost rate as objective function. Finally, the rationality and validity of the model are verified by an example analysis, which provides a basis for the maintenance of the intelligent series system.