AbstractDelimiting species boundaries is a major goal in evolutionary biology. An increasing body of literature has focused on the challenges of investigating cryptic diversity within complex evolutionary scenarios of speciation, including gene flow and demographic fluctuations. New methods based on model selection, such as approximate Bayesian computation, approximate likelihood, and machine learning approaches, are promising tools arising in this field. Here, we introduce a framework for species delimitation using the multispecies coalescent model coupled with a deep learning algorithm based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We compared this strategy with a similar ABC approach. We applied both methods to test species boundary hypotheses based on current and previous taxonomic delimitations as well as genetic data (sequences from 41 loci) in Pilosocereus aurisetus, a cactus species with a sky-island distribution and taxonomic uncertainty. To validate our proposed method, we also applied the same strategy on sequence data from widely accepted species from the genus Drosophila. The results show that our CNN approach has high capacity to distinguish among the simulated species delimitation scenarios, with higher accuracy than the ABC procedure. For Pilosocereus, the delimitation hypothesis based on a splitter taxonomic arrangement without migration showed the highest probability in both CNN and ABC approaches. The splits observed within P. aurisetus agree with previous taxonomic conjectures considering more taxonomic entities within currently accepted species. Our results highlight the cryptic diversity within P. aurisetus and show that CNNs are a promising approach for distinguishing divergent and complex evolutionary histories, even outperforming the accuracy of other model-based approaches such as ABC. Keywords: Species delimitation, fragmented systems, recent diversification, deep learning, Convolutional Neural Networks, Approximate Bayesian Computation
Uncertainty quantification in Neural Networks by Approximate Bayesian Computation: Application to fatigue in composite materials
